2012 Daytona 500-Predictions/thoughts

Not sure what to think with the car changes.

I will say this...A.J. Allmendinger seems to have a decent grasp of the plate tracks. He has run really in the past (depsite not having some of the finishes to show for it) when he was in the Petty car.

He's my darkhorse.

 

Harvick has been strong at the plate races over the last 4-5 years. I think the RCR guys still have it figured out.

I look for maybe Jamie McMurray to rebound at the plate tracks this year too.

 

Ha!

My .02 on her is this: Just like anyone else, in the cup series, she'll have a somewhat legit shot to win on the 4 plate tracks. I don't think it'll be high.

In the nationwide series, in the equipment she'll be in, I think she may have a bit higher opportunity to win.

But I don't ever see her being a threat in the cup series, based on what we saw in the IRL. One win, in a depleted field race (Champ Car's last race that weekend) on fuel mileage.

Now, don't get me wrong...a lot of guys would love to have that 1 win in the IRL. But I don't think she will be able to make that transition and race with the big boys in the cup series. It's a whole different world.

 

Tony Stewart won an IRL championship and a lot of races. Danica didn't. Not to mention that Tony has dominated in just about every type of race car he's hopped in. On top of that, Joe Gibbs never really had any thoughts to keep Stewart in the Busch series for more than a year.

Comparing him and her is like comparing apples and rocks.

Finishing in the top 20? Sure. Lots of people have managed that. John Andretti did that.

 

Ha...appreciate the words (about Rockingham)...I'll still take Dale saying he hit him (unintentional or not) as they made contact


But yes...what Busch did Saturday night was awesome. The way he handled that car reminded me of the way some other NASCAR guys drove back in the day (Stewart on the old short tracks in my area, Kenny Schrader, etc). Unreal what he did.

I think the problem here was that NASCAR made the changes the wrong way. Tandems can hook up, but they can't drive off...leaving us with pack racing...and closing speeds WAY too fast for pack racing.

In the past cars didn't really run each other over. In the tandem racing it's easy to do that at the speeds, but it wasn't happening as much the last 2 years because the fields got spread out. Now you've got that closing speed happening in packs of 20 or more.

Several drivers said that the race Sunday won't be as bad, because they aren't going gung ho for a short time frame. I don't buy it, because I feel in that field of 43 cars, a lot of guys aren't ready for this yet.

 

There is some truth to this, but historically it's not like people who never win races win these. Last year was a bit of change (with Ragan and Bayne), but lets look back historically

Since 2000 we've had 48 plate races. 20 different winners. Half of those drivers only have 1 plate win. So the other 38 races are basically won by the same 10 guys. Earnhardt Jr and Jeff Gordon combine for 15 (31%) of the wins since 2000.

Of the 1 time winners, 2 are retired/deceased (Ward Burton and Bobby Hamilton). 5 of them are/have been consistent winners/threats to win over the last several years (Brad Keselowski, Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Greg Biffle and Jeff Burton). 2 drivers only wins have come in these races (David Ragan and Trevor Bayne). The odd man out is Brian Vickers...and his status is weird.

So if you look at it, 3 winners in the last 48 races were surprises...and fall under that true category "anyone can win"

I didn't realize it was this lopsided. I knew Gordon and Earnhardt had won a lot, but it's essentially the same small group of people winning these plate races. Shoot, 7 of these 20 have at least 3 or more plate wins. So even though earlier I may have mentioned Danica might have a shot because of this "anyone can win" mentality, the statistics show otherwise. And if you go back another 10 years (back to 1990)...the %'s don't really change. Different people are winning, but it's the same small group (more Dale Jarrett, Jeff Gordon, Sterling Marlin, Dale Sr, Irnie Irvan, etc).

Just like any track, certain guys have the knack for it and they win.

I mean, really, since 1990...I'd say there have been only been a handful of surprise wins at the plate tracks

1990 Daytona 500 Derrick Cope
1997 Pepsi 400 John Andretti
1994 Pepsi 400 Jimmy Spencer
2002 Daytona 500 Ward Burton
2011 Daytona 500 Trevor Bayne

And who knows what Bayne's future will hold.

David Ragan had actually had some pretty solid plate runs. Not shocked he won at Talladega.

 

Since Earnhardt did finally win a 500, I don't think 1990 should be PE #1. One of my fondest racing memories is Derrick Cope winning that, because that's one of the biggest surprise wins ever. Really, him winning at Dover that year actually takes away from it some because he won another one, but I remember that race like it was yesterday.

I never really had a problem with Earnhardt in all reality. I hated him for a while after the Hamilton/Rockingham incident that you and I don't see eye to eye on, but I was never in the love him or hate him camp.

As for the race...I'm not sure that people will be trying to win on the first lap, but if the race Saturday is any indication, there was a LOT of movement, and several "almost" wrecks on that first lap. I have a feeling that a lot of cars will not be finishing this race. Makes doing fantasy nascar this year a mess for Daytona.

 

Definately. He had a great car in several of those races (when Jarrett won too). He had some really freaky losses.

Yeah, I think we'll see some guys running towards the back today. I just think this years race...none of the guys are "experienced" as to what the cars are doing. They've never really had the kind of car that they could "Punch it" while still having to be in a large pack. I say get rid of the plates. I hate them.

I think with Yahoo, if you are in more than one (with the same user ID) it just used the same drivers in each one, right? If so, count me in. If I only have to keep track of one set I can do it. Shoot me a PM.