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Poling Disinformation

Discussion in 'News & Current Events' started by Van, Oct 23, 2024.

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  1. Van

    Van Well-Known Member
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    RCP Average Date

    Trump (R)
    Harris (D)

    Average Spread in Battleground States
    10/23

    T48.3 H 47.2
    Trump +1.1

    Arizona October 23rd
    T49.1 H47.3 Trump +1.8

    Nevada October 23rd
    T47.8 H46.9 Trump +0.9

    Wisconsin October 23rd
    T48.3 H47.9 Trump +0.4

    Michigan October 23rd
    T48.4 H47.2 Trump +1.2

    Pennsylvania October 23rd
    T47.9 H47.1 Trump +0.8

    North Carolina October 23rd
    T48.0 H47.6 Trump +0.4

    Georgia October 23rd
    T48.9 H46.4 Trump +2.5

    These figures feed the narrative the race is too close to call, and either side might win. Compare these figures with the results available on November 6, two weeks from today.
     
    #1 Van, Oct 23, 2024
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  2. kyredneck

    kyredneck Well-Known Member
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    ...yea, but just close enough to cheat and get away with it.
     
    #2 kyredneck, Oct 23, 2024
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  3. Van

    Van Well-Known Member
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    If you add up the polling numbers about 3.5% of those polled either said they were not voting, voting for another candidate, or they had not decided. At least one pollster thinks the election is baked in, and some of the 3.5% are Trump voters who chose to hide their preference. Of course on the other side, anyone who sees a "red wave" has a very short memory.
     
    #3 Van, Oct 24, 2024
  4. Van

    Van Well-Known Member
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    Today, November 2, the RCP battleground polls says Mr. Trump has lost ground in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, but has gained ground or held steady in all the rest. :)

    If these November 2 Polls are correct, and the actual results do not differ in VP Harris favor, Mr. Trump wins back the Presidency.
    If, OTOH, Mr. Trump loses Pennsylvania, where he still holds a slight lead (.4%) he loses the election.

    Thus, according to the RCP poll average, this election could be determined by the deep blue urban areas of Pennsylvania.
    Popcorn?
     
    #4 Van, Nov 2, 2024
  5. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    I don't see that at all, all I'm seeing is a bunch of statistical ties, so it's going to depend on turnout if that's true. I'm more interested in the House races, pretty sure the Senate will turm R.

    It would be a little harder for Kamala if she loses PA - more paths to victory for Trump if he lost. The fraud will be much harder this time.
     
    #5 777, Nov 2, 2024
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  6. kyredneck

    kyredneck Well-Known Member
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    #6 kyredneck, Nov 2, 2024
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  7. Benjamin

    Benjamin Well-Known Member
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    I've been thinking this is going to be like Reagan's victory and find any polls claiming a close race as unbelievable and suspect they are probably designed to cover up a last minute squeaker in hopes that some magical numbers can appear overnight and can be passed off as actually believable.

    Rasmussen Head Pollster Predicts Major Trump Landslide Victory

    However, honestly, I'm trying not to get my hopes up after what happened last tine but my confidence is high and I feel like a child waiting for Christmas morning awaiting the gift of a new President and a New Golden Age coming upon this great nation.
    upload_2024-11-3_2-55-27.jpeg
     
    #7 Benjamin, Nov 3, 2024
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  8. percho

    percho Well-Known Member
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    I hope these people doing these close polls don't tell me it's raining.

    How close to, "the truth,' do you believe the polls to be?

    Methinks they are close for purpose.
     
    #8 percho, Nov 3, 2024
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  9. Van

    Van Well-Known Member
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    Actual results as of November 6, 2024 (AP estimate)

    Trump up
    Arizona - 4.7% or plus 2.9% over poll
    Nevada - 4.7% or plus 3.8% over poll
    Wisconsin - .9% or plus .5% over poll
    Michigan - 1.6% or plus .4% over poll
    Pennsylvania - 2.3% or plus 1.5% over poll
    North Carolina - 3.4% or plus 3.0% over poll
    Georgia - 2.3% or minus .2% under poll.

    According to these numbers, 3 polls were accurate (Wis, Mic, and Geo) but 4 were biased in favor of Harris by an average of
    2.8%.
     
    #9 Van, Nov 6, 2024
  10. 777

    777 Well-Known Member
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    the later state polling wasn't so bad - if you look at it closely, most resultswerre within the margin of error, albeit always in Kamala's favor. I saw the other day that Trump was ahead in all or six of the seven battleground state, and he did win them. Polling is an unexact science and should be treated as such.
     
    #10 777, Nov 6, 2024
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