Can the Stock Market Predict a Trump Victory?

[kyredneck]

"The S&P 500 has been a perfect predictor of presidential election-winners for almost the past twenty years." .... More

 

[church mouse guy]

Rounding third and heading home!

 

[kyredneck]

Rounding third and heading home!

The gist of the article in a nutshell:

"...The S&P 500 index's behavior in the three months before the election predicted 87% of election results from 1928 to 2016. The reliability of forecasts since 1984 is absolutely unique — 100%. If the S&P 500 index rises three months before the presidential election, then the candidate who belongs to the incumbent party wins. If the index suffers losses in this three-month interval, the party in power will lose, and the White House will fall into the opposition's hands...."

 

[Dr. Bob]

This cycle may be an anomaly since stocks plummeted in March with covid-fear and ANYTHING since has still not reached the February 2020 level. It is not truly "going up"; it is simply "returning" to levels of 8 months ago.