KenH
Well-Known Member
“The combination of enormous numbers of undocumented, asymptomatic cases; of a high percentage of the exposed remaining uninfected; of rising prevalence of detectable immunity; and of some immunity achieved in ways our lab tests do not routinely measure (i.e., reactive T cells and secretory IgA, without production of IgM or IgG, for those concerned with such particulars)- seemingly put us monumentally closer to herd immunity than we have acknowledged. If this data aggregation is what it seems, we are weeks away from this pandemic being all but over- and we will have the relative protection of herd immunity (except in any parts of the world that stay in strict lock down) long before the advent of a vaccine.
Less speculative than the end of the pandemic is the accounting of its toll among us to date. We now have a monumental and indisputable volume of data from all around the world confirming what the earliest views of the pandemic suggested: there are massive risk differentials associated with COVID19. The elderly and frail are at extreme risk, especially the residents of long-term care facilities; the elderly but hale are at elevated risk; the chronically ill but not elderly are at elevated risk; the young and healthy are at low risk, very low risk, or- when under 30, in good health, and not subject to extreme exposures- even vanishingly remote risk.
But let’s be clear: any level of risk is more than zero. With a sufficiently high exposure dose, even young healthy immune systems can be overwhelmed. We must guard against distorted thinking about risk. For the “all clear” to sound, we do not need there to be zero risk related to COVID; we simply need COVID-specific risks to fall at or below the level of other risks we willingly encounter in our daily routines. None of us has ever lived through a day with a zero risk of injury or death. All that is required to be at non-zero risk of dying today, is living today; the pandemic does not alter that inalienable fact.“
COVID and the Mismaking of History: Where Are We, Really?
Less speculative than the end of the pandemic is the accounting of its toll among us to date. We now have a monumental and indisputable volume of data from all around the world confirming what the earliest views of the pandemic suggested: there are massive risk differentials associated with COVID19. The elderly and frail are at extreme risk, especially the residents of long-term care facilities; the elderly but hale are at elevated risk; the chronically ill but not elderly are at elevated risk; the young and healthy are at low risk, very low risk, or- when under 30, in good health, and not subject to extreme exposures- even vanishingly remote risk.
But let’s be clear: any level of risk is more than zero. With a sufficiently high exposure dose, even young healthy immune systems can be overwhelmed. We must guard against distorted thinking about risk. For the “all clear” to sound, we do not need there to be zero risk related to COVID; we simply need COVID-specific risks to fall at or below the level of other risks we willingly encounter in our daily routines. None of us has ever lived through a day with a zero risk of injury or death. All that is required to be at non-zero risk of dying today, is living today; the pandemic does not alter that inalienable fact.“
COVID and the Mismaking of History: Where Are We, Really?
