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Cruz Tops Trump in Nationwide Poll of Likely GOP Primary Voters

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
As I've stated elsewhere, Trump has peaked. He has been dropping in the polls of late, however even I was surprised with the results of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

NBC_WSJ Poll_021716.JPG

Poll was taken in the days after the debate in South Carolina on Saturday. Just a month ago a poll by the same NBC/WSJ group showed Trump leading Cruz by 13 points--33 to 20. It appears that the cracks are starting to appear in Trump's campaign.

Look for Trump to pooh-pooh the poll, call NBC News a liberal organization, etc. (what about the WSJ, Donald? LOL.)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296
 

Rolfe

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
As I've stated elsewhere, Trump has peaked. He has been dropping in the polls of late, however even I was surprised with the results of the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

View attachment 347

Poll was taken in the days after the debate in South Carolina on Saturday. Just a month ago a poll by the same NBC/WSJ group showed Trump leading Cruz by 13 points--33 to 20. It appears that the cracks are starting to appear in Trump's campaign.

Look for Trump to pooh-pooh the poll, call NBC News a liberal organization, etc. (what about the WSJ, Donald? LOL.)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/surprise-trump-falls-behind-cruz-national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296

I have been a bit out of the ring for the last couple of days. Thought that I heard Trump was threatening a third-party run. If so, he would probably consider this good reason to break his word.
 

poncho

Well-Known Member
Trump hits new high in Quinnipiac national poll

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269663-trump-up-20-nationwide-poll


Trump dominates, Sanders ties Clinton in nationwide poll

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/t...es-clinton-in-nationwide-poll/article/2583421


Trump earns 44 percent support from registered Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters. Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas) comes in a distant second, with 17 percent.

http://www.wnd.com/2016/02/poll-44-back-trump-nationwide/


Nationwide opinion polling for the Republican Party 2016 presidential primaries

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio..._Republican_Party_2016_presidential_primaries


The WSJ is owned by News Corp. In other words the WSJ is one of neocon Rupert Murdoch's propaganda outlets. In other other words the WSJ is a NEOCONSERVATIVE magazine it is not a conservative magazine.
 
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Rippon

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I'll make a prediction just for South Carolina.

The second-place finisher will be 22% points behind Trump. The Donald will get at least 40% this time.

Now that I've put that out there --you'll be able to throw either rocks or roses at me when the tally is done.
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I'll make a prediction just for South Carolina.

The second-place finisher will be 22% points behind Trump. The Donald will get at least 40% this time.

Now that I've put that out there --you'll be able to throw either rocks or roses at me when the tally is done.

No way. I'd say Trump wins by 10%-12%, maybe even less. Rubio is coming on strong after multiple endorsements.
 

Rippon

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
As I've stated elsewhere, Trump has peaked. He has been dropping in the polls of late,

It appears that the cracks are starting to appear in Trump's campaign.
The above assertions were made on Feb. 17th. Your wishful thinking has been exposed to be just that.
 

carpro

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Trump's appeal has always been limited. In a crowded field, it puts him on top. As the field thins out his appeal appears to lessen. But the truth is that a lot of his support in the primaries comes from liberals who think he's the most beatable.

Primary Crossover voting at it's best.

In a crowded field, it makes a big difference.
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
The above assertions were made on Feb. 17th. Your wishful thinking has been exposed to be just that.
You said Trump would win SC by 22 points; I said he'd win by 10-12 points maybe less. You said he would get 40%. Here are the results:

Trump. 32.5
Rubio. 22.5
Cruz. 22.3

Trump has never gotten more than 49% of the vote in any state and most of his wins have been with 35%-40% of the vote. That was true in February and is still true.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk
 

Rippon

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Trump has never gotten more than 49% of the vote in any state and most of his wins have been with 35%-40% of the vote. That was true in February and is still true.
The exceptions are:
La. -- 41
Haw. -- 42
Miss. -- 47
Fla. -- 46
Mo. -- 41
N.C. -- 40
N.M.Islands --73
Nev. -- 46
Ala. -- 43
Mass. -- 49
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
The exceptions are:
La. -- 41
Haw. -- 42
Miss. -- 47
Fla. -- 46
Mo. -- 41
N.C. -- 40
N.M.Islands --73
Nev. -- 46
Ala. -- 43
Mass. -- 49

N.M Islands is not a state. He has never gotten more than 50% of the vote in any state.

Here are the results where he got 40% or less.

Alaska 33.5% (lost to Cruz)
Arkansas 32.7%
D.C. 13.2% (lost to Rubio, D.C. is predominantly black and is not a state)
Georgia 38.8%
Iowa 24.3% (lost to Cruz)
Idaho 28.1% (lost to Cruz)
Illinois 38.8%
Kansas 23.3% (lost to Cruz)
Kentucky 35.9%
Maine 32.6% (lost to Cruz)
Michigan 36.5%
Minnesota 21.3% (lost to Rubio)
New Hampshire 35.3%
Ohio 35.6%
Oklahoma 28.3% (lost to Cruz)
South Carolina 32.5%
Tennessee 38.9%
Texas 26.7% (lost to Cruz)
Virginia 34.7%
Vermont 32.7%

If you tally up all the votes across all the states so far, Trump has received 37.0% of the vote.
 

Aaron

Member
Site Supporter
Thinking that a majority of Cruz voters wouldn't vote for Trump if Cruz dropped out is presumptuous at best. I voted for Cruz in my state, but if Cruz weren't in the running I would have voted for Trump. I think over half of the Cruz voters would vote for Trump if the election were held today.
 

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I think over half of the Cruz voters would vote for Trump if the election were held today.

Based on what? Gut feeling?

There has been 12 GOP candidates drop out of the race so far. Trump's numbers have ticked up a bit, from about 33% overall of GOP voters to about 37% overall of GOP voters. I seriously doubt more than half of Cruz voters would jump over to Trump.
 
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