Fake News: AP Touts Anti-Trump Poll with Warped Demographics Conducted by Soros-Backed Org

[Calminian]

The headlines are hilarious today. Hope I'm not exceeding my allowed thread starts.

Fake News: AP Touts Anti-Trump Poll with Warped Demographics Conducted by Soros-Backed Org

The Associated Press on Monday released a news making story with a glaring headline claiming that “Most young Americans don’t see Trump as a legitimate leader.”​

A closer look at the survey finds it was conducted by a group financed by billionaire George Soros whose activist arm demands reparations for slavery and “mass incarceration,” and has engaged in anti-police activism.

In addition, the survey was not representative of the racial and ethnic profiles of young adults. Instead it focused heavily on demographic samples of populations that voted overwhelmingly against Donald Trump.

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The only thing I ask is why do people believe still believe in these agenda polls? Wasn't the election proof enough?

 

[rsr]

Unfortunately, the author doesn't seem to understand much about survey methods. Probably because that would blow his "story" out of the water.

Just because a particular group is oversampled doesn't mean that its responses skew the final results. If, for example, African Americans make up a disproportionate share of the sample, those results are adjusted to reflect the ratio of the actual population. Thus, even though participants from one demographic category may outnumber their actual proportion of the population, their results are weighted according to the actual proportion.

"A poststratification process is used to adjust for any survey nonresponse as well as any non-coverage or under- and oversampling resulting from the study-specific sample design. The poststratification process was done separately for each racial/ethnic group and involved the following variables: age, gender, education, and census region. The weighted data, which reflect the U.S. population of adults ages 18-30, and the 18-30 year-old populations for African Americans, Latino/as, Asian Americans, and non-Latino/a whites, were used for all analyses."

The results of the survey seem pretty reasonable from what I've seen from that age cohort.

 

[Calminian]

....Just because a particular group is oversampled doesn't mean that its responses skew the final results....

Yeah, it pretty much does when you isolate a particular ground. And then you George Soros being it?

Honestly you didn't learn anything from the last election? All those state by state surveys wrong. Nothing?

 

[rsr]

Apparently you didn't read the notes on methodology. Feel free to make a case based upon the methodology. Even though you oversample doesn't mean that the oversampling shows up in the final results. Really, this is not rocket science. Except for folks who don't like the results.

I'm not sure what "a particular ground" is.

 

[Calminian]

Apparently you didn't read the notes on methodology. Feel free to make a case based upon the methodology. Even though you oversample doesn't mean that the oversampling shows up in the final results. Really, this is not rocket science. Except for folks who don't like the results.

I'm not sure what "a particular ground" is.

Yes I understand that pollsters believe they can poll certain areas and over sample certain groups and still come up with an accurate poll. But they were proven wrong in the Presidential election. They grossly mis-sampled and their adjustments did not work.

Again, did you not learn anything from the last election?

 

[rsr]

Yes, I learned a lot of things. It is possible to lose horribly in the popular vote and still win the presidency. You can alienate large sections of the voters and still win. You can boast of groping women and still win. You can tell blatant lies and still win.

As to polling, late-breaking votes in a handful of states make a mess of state-by-state surveys. Yep, that happens. DId they grossly missample? Probably not. The results were paper thin in some states.

Which has nothing at all to do with this particular survey. Again, the results correspond roughly to what I see among people of that age group.

 

[carpro]

Yes, I learned a lot of things. It is possible to lose horribly in the popular vote and still win the presidency. You can alienate large sections of the voters and still win. ... You can tell blatant lies and still win.

.

Really? You learned all that from this election?

You didn't know any of it before hand?

Amazing!

 

[Calminian]

Yes, I learned a lot of things. It is possible to lose horribly in the popular vote and still win the presidency. .....

My gosh where have you been? You didn't know the candidate weren't even trying to win the popular vote? Well, at least you know how the system works now.

You also didn't learn that all the state to state polls were wrong, wildly wrong, and it had nothing to do with people suddenly changing their minds at the last minute and voting different than the told the pollsters they would?

And pollsters were actually pressured at that point to adjust their polls and be accurate. Today, they have no such pressure as there is no election to keep them inline.

 

[rsr]

What, exactly, does any of this have to do with the OP? Many, if not most, young people consider Trump an illegitimate president. Yeah, there are all kinds of problems with that view. He won the race as it was designed. And way too many of them are brought up to believe that anything they don't like is illegitimate. That's another story. But the fact is that that many, if not most, of them think Trump is not legitimate. Cavil all you will, this is a troubling fact.that bodes ill for the future of the republic.

Besides, the state polls were not "wildly wrong." And apparently winning the popular vote was a big deal for Trump since he claimed that he would have won the popular vote if it hadn't been for so many illegal votes.

 

[777]

Meh, I wouldn't worry too much about the youth vote - this particular poll by Soros probably overstates the "not MY president" thing by a few percentage points just because it's of "adults" but Trump only got 37 percent of the popular vote by this group in the general.

Not unusual, younger voters are far more likely to vote D, have been for decades and this is why California is thinking about allowing seventeen-year-old to vote. Their ideology will change as they age and get away from their radical college professors and out in the real world.