If the briefcase bomb had been sucessful

Adolf Hitler would have lived a few months less than he did, and the anniversery of his death would not coincide with my birthday! But beyond that, how can we possibly say?

 

Well, the war in Europe would have been over before we became involved. It seems to my recollection that among other things, the conspirators planned to end the aggression, if not withdraw from the territory taken. Perhaps Germany would have retained the territory it had taken to that point?

The Soviets would not have been our wolf-in-sheep's clothing ally long enough to capture very valuable land/naturalresources/industrial infrastructure, military help and advancements from the British and US, and thus may have been less aggressive in the 'cold war.' This is probably moot, because we were their eventual enemy anyway.

The Japanese may have continued to expand w/o 'waking the sleeping giant', even to the point that they could have eventually taken China (maybe).
On the other hand, if Hitler/Mussolini/Soto were motivating each other, maybe the whole thing would have ground to a halt?

In any case, my family would still be in Germany, had the area not been so devestated, so I would probably not be here, typing this response to you. What then?

 

My father's brother would not have met his best friend in the Army while stationed in Germany during the later 1940's. My Uncle would not have become acquainted with my mother's brother who was my uncle's best friend's friend sense high school. My Dad would not have been drafted in '52 and his brother would not have given my mother his address. One correspondence would not have led to another and they would not have married in February '56. December 26, 1956 would just be the day after Christmas and not my birthday.

Wow, that is profound. I never really thought that out. It took a world war to bring my mother and father together.

 

I'm left wondering who you mean by "we" when you write "before we became involved." I assumed you meant Americans, who (as I understand it) entered the Second World War in 1941. But the article to which the OP links includes this (my emphasis):

The July 20, 1944, assassination attempt was led by Count von Stauffenberg, who wanted to oust the Nazi regime and end World War II.



​

So if it had succeded, Hitler's death would have been just over 9 months earlier than it in fact was, and if that assassination had precipated the end of the war in Europe, that, too, would have been just over 9 months earlier, so certainly not before the Americans joined the War in 1941.

Another thing - though perhaps I am being over-pedantic here - the OP asked, "How would history have changed, had they been sucessful?" The question was not, "How might history have changed?" Your answer includes a number of "possibility-words" - perhaps, may, could have, and maybe.

 

The writer Tom Wolfe recounted this conversation on the subject recently - LINK

*

My brother-in-law happened to be present in 1943 in a general store, and here were three good old boys who were too old to go into the armed forces, talking about the war.

And one of them says, "You know, this whole war -- the whole problem here is this man called Hitler. I don't know why we just don't go over there and shoot him."

And his friend says, "Well, I'm not sure it's that easy. I don't know how you can just go over there and shoot him."

And the first says, "Look, you get me over there in a boat, I'll shoot him."

"How are you going to do that?"

He says, "Well, I'll go to the front door and I'll ring the bell."

His friend says, "Are you crazy? He's not going to come to the front door. The whole place has probably got a big wall around."

He said, "Okay I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll wait until its dark, I'll go around to the wall in back, I'll climb over it and I'll hide behind a tree with my rifle. And in the morning when he comes out in the yard to p**, I'm going to shoot him."

 

I'm not so sure that German High Command was looking to end the war if the briefcase had been successful

They were in "cahoots" with Hitler because of his stupidity----the Allied invasion of Europe(at Normandy---and the winding trip north up the boot of Italy) wasn't their #1 concern-----Russia, on the other hand---was!!!!

High Command's strategy in East Europe was to attempt a withdrawal off the Russian front----to a point to be determined----in order to ease combat pressure on their troops on the Eastern front and to regroup----Hitler would not hear of a withdrawal---not one step backward from Moscow, Stalengrad nor Leningrad

If the briefcase had been successful???? Here's another way of looking at it------High Command would have had a chance to do what they desperately needed to do-----ease off of the Eastern Front----withdraw to a specified point---regrouping forces under the command of Field Marshall Paulus----When Germany lost Paulus----it was like science loosing Einstein!!!!!!!

Quiet possible the war would not have been drawn to a close with the briefcase-----High Command would have merely been able to run the war without their hands tied behind their backs and their mouths gagged!!!!!! War would not have been over----rather, strategy would have been shifted---get out of Moscow, Stalingrad, Leningrad---and back to the Caucases---and oil!!!!!!----I tried to convince a British fella once----that had German High Command been able to conduct the war WITHOUT Hitler----"Now, Adolf!!!! You go on outside and play---we'll decide about . . .!!!"-----Brittish common folk would today be spending Deutch Marks instead of Brittish Pounds!!!!!!

 

I enjoy your analysis Blackbird, I agree with much of what you say. I would submit a couple of thoughts.

I think the OKH (German High Command) would have looked for a conditional peace for the following reasons.

1) By the time July 44 rolls around the Germans were in full fledged retreat. The Kursk Offensive had failed. The Red Army was rolling. The next geographic barrier where they could have regrouped would have been The Bug River which was on the Russo-Polish border. Or the Vistula in Poland. It was time to talk even to the Russians. Take Hitler out of the picture and you don't have the racial theories and other Nazi specific ideology that made talking to the Soviets impossible for Hitler.

2) The pressure of the Western Allies was building. Six weeks after D-Day we were still caught up in the hedgerows but we were not going to be pushed back into the sea. I think the provisional government would have looked for a conditional surrender or breaking up the allied coalition.

3)Stalin tried to negotiate a peace with Hitler at Hossbach in late 42. Guderian had recommended that Germany sign a cease fire and use the time to get the newer model Panther and Tiger tanks to the front. I think getting the Reds to accept a conditional peace would have been a reality although Germany would not have gotten the same terms in July of 44 that they could have gotten in late 42.

Thanks for your time in reading this.

 

Yes, that is what I understand in reading military history

My analysis was just a "thought"---a "hunch" of what High Command MAY have thought

Actually----with the briefcase "armed & ready" to go "Ka-blew-ee"----there was a member of German High Command near "the phone" ready to speak to Eisenhower----they wanted to "sue" for peace but would talk to Allied forces---a la Eisenhower/Roosevelt/Churchill instead of Stalin