Ivon Denosovich
New Member
This is a loooooong shot, I know, but I'm calling the GOP race for Giuliani and the Dem's race for Hillary with the latter winning in the general election.
I think New Hampshire will find the newly surging McCain knocking out Romney for good (he can't stand to take another hit) and a McCain victory will aso be the death of Huckabee's so called momentum. Fred Thompson will likely drop out shortly after loosing to McCain in New Hampshire as he's broke and doesn't seem to have the energy to raise much needed funds. This basically leaves Giuliani to compete with Huckabee/McCain on a national level and stomp them both.
On the Dems...
Hillary, IMHO, did very well last night. She NEEDS Edwards to stay alive to split the anti-Hillary vote. Had Edwards finished third in Iowa it would have most certainly been the end of his campaign. Significant polling says that most Edwards people pick Obama as their second choice and most Obama people return the favor. If either Edwards or Obama drops now it would consolidate the anyone-but-her margin and she would be easily defeated. I think it was in her best interest to finish third if she couldn't finish first, and it may also be in her best interest to finish third in NH. She'll do better on the national scene in the bigger states: retail politicing at the local level just isn't her thing. Last night bought her much needed stalling time to continue building her own base across the country before the Edwards/Obama crowd team up.
As to the general election...
It just isn't a good year to have a (R) fixed to yer name. Republicans need all the help they can to maintain traction. With a Giuliani nomination the social conservatives will bolt and Hillary will benefit from both a fractured party and a war weary nation and coast into the White House.
That's my long shot prediction for '08. And yours?
I think New Hampshire will find the newly surging McCain knocking out Romney for good (he can't stand to take another hit) and a McCain victory will aso be the death of Huckabee's so called momentum. Fred Thompson will likely drop out shortly after loosing to McCain in New Hampshire as he's broke and doesn't seem to have the energy to raise much needed funds. This basically leaves Giuliani to compete with Huckabee/McCain on a national level and stomp them both.
On the Dems...
Hillary, IMHO, did very well last night. She NEEDS Edwards to stay alive to split the anti-Hillary vote. Had Edwards finished third in Iowa it would have most certainly been the end of his campaign. Significant polling says that most Edwards people pick Obama as their second choice and most Obama people return the favor. If either Edwards or Obama drops now it would consolidate the anyone-but-her margin and she would be easily defeated. I think it was in her best interest to finish third if she couldn't finish first, and it may also be in her best interest to finish third in NH. She'll do better on the national scene in the bigger states: retail politicing at the local level just isn't her thing. Last night bought her much needed stalling time to continue building her own base across the country before the Edwards/Obama crowd team up.
As to the general election...
It just isn't a good year to have a (R) fixed to yer name. Republicans need all the help they can to maintain traction. With a Giuliani nomination the social conservatives will bolt and Hillary will benefit from both a fractured party and a war weary nation and coast into the White House.
That's my long shot prediction for '08. And yours?
