Let's Predict the New Hampshire GOP Primary Vote

[InTheLight]

Let's predict the New Hampshire primary vote for the GOP. (Sanders has the Dem side all locked up.) Please list an order of finish with percent of the vote estimates. Comments would be fun as well.

A couple of things to remember:

1. New Hampshire has a semi-closed, or modified primary. That is, you have to ask for a ballot from one party or the other, meaning you can vote for Republican or Democrat. Estimate put about 40% of the state as being independent voters. I suspect you will see people that normally vote Democrat will ask for Republican ballots and vote for weaker candidates in order to take some steam out of Trump and Rubio's momentum.

2. The percent of the population that are evangelical voters is way less than in Iowa.

OK, here's my picks:

1. Trump 27%
2. Kasich 20%
3. Bush 14%
4. Rubio 13%
5. Cruz 10%
6. Christie 7%
7. Fiorina 5%
8. Carson 3%

It could end up being Rubio in 3rd and Bush in 4th, but the percentages will be within a point or two.

Get your predictions in before 8:00 EST tonight!

 

[blessedwife318]

My very hopeful prediction is that Trump will once again lose to a more powerful ground game. Unfortunately I think it will be one of the establishment candidates that beats him, and right now my money would be on Kasich. Although that would just cause more in fighting between the 4 establishment candidates which ok with as long as Cruz can keep picking up more and more support as the non establishment candidates, Carson and Fiorina dropout.

If I had to number then I would say.
1. Kasich
2. Trump
3/4 Rubio
3/4 Cruz
5 Christie
6/7 Carson
6/7 Bush
8 Fiorina

 

[InTheLight]

I think you are really underestimating Bush. I almost picked him to finish 2nd, but Kasich has got too good of a ground game in N.H., plus he's spent so much time there.

If Trump does not win by at least 15 points, and he won't, he ought to consider it a loss. He's had a 20+ point lead for months and right now he's got a 17 point lead in the Real Clear Politics composite poll.

 

[Zaac]

I would really like for Kasich to just sneak to the top.

1. Trump 29%
2. Kasich 26%
3. Rubio 12%
4. Bush 10%
5. Cruz 10%
6. Christie 5%
7. Fiorina 4%
8. Carson 4%

 

[777]

There are two primaries today, you know but the GOP will go Trump by 10% percentage points and the Democrats will go Sanders by at least 5%.
The few exit polls I've seen hint at an impressive win by both.

You could always write Yeb in, you know, His photo-op walking ahead of his nintey-year-old in a walker in deep snow was poison and he had better hoped the voters today aren't aware of it or Rubio's debate performance.

 

[Revmitchell]

Bush spent 35 mill in NH and came in fourth under Cruz who only spent 800,000. what a joke

Trump won by 19 points. Kasich should enjoy is 2nd place. He will not see it again.

 

[InTheLight]

I'm not understanding why Fiorina did not announce she was suspending her campaign. Christie ought to as well. Carson is still doing fairly well in the southern states so I can understand why he's hanging on. I think he wants to be able to say he's placed 1, 2, or 3 in a GOP primary. Most likely target is Alabama, Louisiana, or Mississippi.