Let's Predict the South Carolina GOP Primary Vote

[InTheLight]

Let's predict the South Carolina primary vote for the GOP. Comments would be fun as well.

A couple of things to remember:

1. This is an open primary, meaning you don't have to declare a party affiliation before voting. Obviously, if you vote in the GOP primary tomorrow (Sat. Feb 20th) you can't vote in the Democrat primary next Saturday, the 27th.

2. This is a winner take all primary.

3. In 2012 fifty-five percent of the electorate made their mind up on the day of the voting.


OK, here's my prediction:

Trump......31%
Rubio.......22%
Cruz.........19%
Bush........12%
Kasich...... 9%
Carson......6%

In a different thread yesterday Rippon predicted Trump would win by 22 points. I do not see that happening.

Please post your predictions.

 

[777]

There's not that many undecideds left this time, but I don't think you're far off:

Trump......34%
Rubio.......23%
Cruz.........18%
Bush........11%
Kasich.....8%
Carson.....5%


I ripped off that poll with the huge sampling, playing on a hunch that most of the undecideds will go to Marco and the Cruz/Trump support holds firm.

 

[InTheLight]

Wow, we're really close. Where are all the other people's predictions?

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[Rippon]

OK, here's my prediction:

Trump......31%
Rubio.......22%
Cruz.........19%
Bush........12%
Kasich...... 9%
Carson......6%

In a different thread yesterday Rippon predicted Trump would win by 22 points. I do not see that happening.

Okay, we are both agreed that The Donald will indeed win. The question is by how much will he win. I said that he would win by 22 points over the # 2 guy. I did not name the #2 person.

You think Trump will win by 9 and I predict by 22. If I am closer to the actual percentages then you will acknowledge that I am quite astute. If you have predicted more accurately then I will say your prognostication was just a lucky fluke. ;-)

So the dividing line will be 15.5%. If the final tally is under that you win. If the result is over that, I win.
Of course bonus points will be awarded to the one who actually hits the exact mark of either 9% or 22%.

 

[InTheLight]

Nice try attempting to make a deal on the terms of the predictions. You are trying to hedge your bet by making anything over 15.5% an acceptable outcome for your prediction. I'm not buying. You said Trump would win by at least 22%, not by at least 15.6%.

You also haven't given us any predicted finishes for the other candidates.

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[Rippon]

Nice try attempting to make a deal on the terms of the predictions. You are trying to hedge your bet by making anything over 15.5% an acceptable outcome for your prediction. I'm not buying. You said Trump would win by at least 22%, not by at least 15.6%.

I was trying to be as fair as possible to both of us.

So, let's wait and see how far off you are from a 9 spread and how far I will be from a 22 spread.

You also haven't given us any predicted finishes for the other candidates.

That's right. I am just saying that I think #2, whoever he may be, will be 22 percentage points behind Trump.

Feel free to speculate on the other contenders. I'm just sticking with basics.

 

[Rob_BW]

Hillary: 100% of all coin tosses.

 

[Benjamin]

Let's predict the South Carolina primary vote for the GOP. Comments would be fun as well.

A couple of things to remember:

1. This is an open primary, meaning you don't have to declare a party affiliation before voting. Obviously, if you vote in the GOP primary tomorrow (Sat. Feb 20th) you can't vote in the Democrat primary next Saturday, the 27th.

2. This is a winner take all primary.

3. In 2012 fifty-five percent of the electorate made their mind up on the day of the voting.


OK, here's my prediction:

Trump......31%
Rubio.......22%
Cruz.........19%
Bush........12%
Kasich...... 9%
Carson......6%

In a different thread yesterday Rippon predicted Trump would win by 22 points. I do not see that happening.

Please post your predictions.

Think your numbers might be pretty close with a couple exceptions, I'll predict a stronger showing for Carson than the media regulated poles tells us can happened and will put Kasich at the bottom.

Trump......31%
Rubio.......22%
Cruz.........19%
Carson.....12%
Bush......... 9%
Kasich........6%

..and since your numbers only added up to 99% I'll throw that extra 1% Carson's way for good measure.

Carson .....13%

I'll also add that it could be very unpredictable toward Trump being on one hand I suspect people might be getting tired of his rhetorical games which amount to his main substance, but on the other hand some typical Democratic leaning might be getting into the revelations of his "past" positions or might vote for him for various other reasons, ...such as to help sabotage the Republican Primary.

 

[InTheLight]

Way back last summer I believe Carson was leading South Carolina. I think that was before Trump announced. He might do better than I predicted, but I doubt he can get into double digits.. There are a lot of black voters in South Carolina.

 

[777]

So this is how it ended up, you were close:

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep

double-digits, but barely - thing is, Trump won all the delegates yesterday. As for Carson, you know, he's not even really campaigning any more. He is just staying in for the free publicity to sell his books.

 

[InTheLight]

So this is how it ended up, you were close:

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/sc/Rep

double-digits, but barely - thing is, Trump won all the delegates yesterday. As for Carson, you know, he's not even really campaigning any more. He is just staying in for the free publicity to sell his books.

We both did pretty well. I was 1.5% below Trump's percent total; you were 1.5% over his total. I was 0.5% below Rubio's total; you were 0.5% above.

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[Rippon]

Congrats ITL. You came a whole lot closer to the outcome than I did for S.C.

Trump got into double digits though.

Trump did get more than twice the vote than Rubio in four counties:Colleton, Horry, Lee and Williamsburg.

Presently the delegate count is:
Trump : 61
Cruz : 11
Rubio : 10

Trump will be a steamroller.