Most Americans think economy is 'getting worse'

[Revmitchell]

Consumers have been the missing link in the U.S. economic recovery and are likely to remain so absent a major change in sentiment.

Despite the seemingly endless stream of Wall Street economists who believe the U.S. is about to snap out of its malaise, most Americans think the economy is bad and getting worse, according to several recent surveys.

One of the more glaring examples of how strong pessimism has become is Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index. The measure gauges the difference between respondents who say the economy is improving or declining. The most recent results are not good.

Fully 59 percent say the economy is "getting worse" against just 37 percent who say it is "getting better." That gap of 22 percentage points is the worst since August, according to Gallup, which polled 3,542 adults. The index carries a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/14/most-americans-think-economy-is-getting-worse.html

 

[righteousdude2]

Well, it's surely not improving!

 

[InTheLight]

Perception sometimes is reality, but I don't think so in this case. Consider most Americans believe in climate change.

Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo using Tapatalk.

 

[Zaac]

And most Americans think they are Christians.

 

[righteousdude2]

And most Americans think they are Christians.

The road to hell is wide. It has many lanes to accommodate the multitudes. While the road to heaven is narrow, with few finding the way the. Thinking and knowing you are a Christian does not make you one.

 

[Zaac]

And neither does thinking the economy is getting worse make it so.

 

[Crabtownboy]

Consumer confidence is a lagging indicator and should be viewed that way.


From: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/010604.asp

Lagging Perspective
The next time you hear the results from the latest Consumer Confidence Survey, keep in mind that economists view consumer confidence as a lagging indicator, which responds only after the overall economy has already changed. The explanation for this delayed CCI reaction is that it takes time for consumers to recover from and respond to economic events. The importance of a lagging indicator is that it confirms that a pattern is occurring. So, an increase in spending today may reflect the results of an economy that recovered a few months ago. Conversely, a decrease in spending today may confirm an ongoing recession.

The CCI, however, is a lagging indicator, so whatever the survey says, remember that it doesn't tell us what is going to happen, but what has happened and if it can be expected to continue

 

[Zaac]

So in other words, the CCI is measuring an old economy and not what folks actually think about the current state of the economy.Thumbsup

 

[Crabtownboy]

So in other words, the CCI is measuring an old economy and not what folks actually think about the current state of the economy.Thumbsup

What people think is happening and what is actually happening are two very different animals. As the last statement in the quote I posted the CCI tells us what has happened and is an indicator, but only an indicator, what what may continue to happen. When the CCI turns up the economy may still be going up or it may have already turned down, but people have not realized the change yet.

The New Residential Housing Construction Report is a good leading indicator. The Factory Orders Report is also a useful indicator.

 

[Rob_BW]

Consumer confidence is a lagging indicator and should be viewed that way.


From: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/010604.asp

Lagging Perspective
The next time you hear the results from the latest Consumer Confidence Survey, keep in mind that economists view consumer confidence as a lagging indicator, which responds only after the overall economy has already changed. The explanation for this delayed CCI reaction is that it takes time for consumers to recover from and respond to economic events. The importance of a lagging indicator is that it confirms that a pattern is occurring. So, an increase in spending today may reflect the results of an economy that recovered a few months ago. Conversely, a decrease in spending today may confirm an ongoing recession.

The CCI, however, is a lagging indicator, so whatever the survey says, remember that it doesn't tell us what is going to happen, but what has happened and if it can be expected to continue

I don't disagree with what you posted, but I think the regional nature of the recovery may have more to do with low consumer confidence.

 

[Crabtownboy]

I don't disagree with what you posted, but I think the regional nature of the recovery may have more to do with low consumer confidence.

I agree with you on that. Some regions of the country are not in good shape. Some are in very good shape and doing well. But it does take time, even in areas where the economy is doing well for consumers to realize this and become more confident.

 

[church mouse guy]

As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at zero, people who invest in the stock market might make a killing. I think that the report card for the 1st quarter showed no growth. The election of a Democrat should touch off a recession as the Democrats are promising more government spending and more taxes as well as the shutting down of the coal industry.

 

[Crabtownboy]

As long as the Fed keeps interest rates at zero, people who invest in the stock market might make a killing. I think that the report card for the 1st quarter showed no growth. The election of a Democrat should touch off a recession as the Democrats are promising more government spending and more taxes as well as the shutting down of the coal industry.

Not according to history. The economy has done much better when Democrats were in office.

From: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/...y-is-best-for-the-economy-It-s-not-even-close

As the historical record shows, from economic growth and job creation to stock market performance and just about every other indicator of the health of American capitalism, the modern U.S. economy has almost always done better under Democratic presidents. Despite GOP mythology to the contrary, America generally gained more jobs and grew faster when taxes were higher (even much higher) and income inequality lower.

 

[church mouse guy]

Wow, who knew that the Carter economy was better than the Reagan economy or that the Obama economy was good. I think the only thing good in the Obama economy is the stock market because there is no interest being paid on savings--Chelsea Clinton made something like $8,000,000 on the stock market. The Obama economy has seen the middle class grow smaller and incomes shrink. Most business people are Democrats but their business seems to be crony capitalism.

One thing that I admire about you Crabtown is your refusal to deal with anyone who pays less than $15 per hour to even one of his employees.

 

[Revmitchell]

Perception sometimes is reality, but I don't think so in this case. Consider most Americans believe in climate change.

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Most American do not believe in climate change.

 

[InTheLight]

Most American do not believe in climate change.

A new survey finds that 70 percent of Americans believe the climate is changing.

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/264767-poll-70-percent-believe-in-climate-change

 

[stevewm1963]

A new survey finds that 70 percent of Americans believe the climate is changing.

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/264767-poll-70-percent-believe-in-climate-change

View attachment 511

We need to stop relying on polls and start listening to people! It's been my experience just listening to "real" people it's rare to find anyone that believes that hogwash about global warming! Polls are easily manipulated!

 

[Revmitchell]

A new survey finds that 70 percent of Americans believe the climate is changing.

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/264767-poll-70-percent-believe-in-climate-change

View attachment 511

"...But the support is complicated. Pollsters found that only 27 percent of respondents agree with the overwhelming scientific consensus that human activity is the main cause of climate change."

 

[carpro]

Wow, who knew that the Carter economy was better than the Reagan economy or that the Obama economy was good. I think the only thing good in the Obama economy is the stock market because there is no interest being paid on savings--Chelsea Clinton made something like $8,000,000 on the stock market. The Obama economy has seen the middle class grow smaller and incomes shrink. Most business people are Democrats but their business seems to be crony capitalism.

One thing that I admire about you Crabtown is your refusal to deal with anyone who pays less than $15 per hour to even one of his employees.

Consider the source.

 

[carpro]

A new survey finds that 70 percent of Americans believe the climate is changing.

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/264767-poll-70-percent-believe-in-climate-change

View attachment 511

True. But it's also misleading, since the bruhaha is about what causes it.

From your source:

"Pollsters found that only 27 percent of respondents agree with the overwhelming scientific consensus that human activity is the main cause of climate change." (As already noted by the Rev)

That puts over 70% of the people at sharp odds with the zero and his economically destructive policies.