Opening day

The Tigers picked up where they left off in 2007 - they are still an untimely-hitting, lead-blowing team that specializes in choke artistry. But now they are just overpaid at what they were so good at last year.

Meanwhile, the Indians find a way to win (with a little bit of luck thrown in).

Season's over. It's all about individual stats now. Here's to another batting crown for Magglio Ordonez!

 

The Braves are off to their old antics. They keep blowing leads. I think that their bullpen needs an exorcist.

 

The season's over after 1 game?

With 161 games to go? Wow.

:tonofbricks:

 

I said that tongue-in-cheek. Sort of. Thing is, if they played like this in mid-September during a playoff hunt, most fans would be horrified. Well, I happen to think these games in April are just as important. They all count toward the standings, and last I checked, divisions and pennants are sometimes decided by a mere game. My problem with the Tigers is their underachieving choke artistry is a trend that goes back to all of 2007 (it actually began in the '06 W.S.), and I see no sign of them reversing that trend. I think they are way overrated. I now predict they will go 82-80. They might eke out 85 wins. Truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish below .500. They are an injury or two away from a 75-win season.

 

Man, to live near a team that has opening day.

Back in the day, I was able to go to several Royals opening days. Too much fun, and too cold.

 

3 games in I agree with you now, especially with Sheffield's torn tendon. What happened to the heralded offense I kept reading about this offseason?

 

Yeah, this season is over for the Tigers. Granderson being out really hurts. Sheff is out now, which is fine with me - Cabrera can DH and Inge play 3rd, which gives us a much better defense. I'm glad they held onto Inge. Anything over 80 wins and I will be surprised. To add multiple injuries to an already underachieving team spells disaster.

 

Andy, why right off the season already. 80 wins? Come on! Leyland is great manager. I think everyone will be surprised. Show a little optimism. I am still going with my prediction because this is a long season and to judge how a team will do based on their opening series is impossible. This team is better than the 06 team so their is no reason they can not perform like they did then.

 

Don't get me wrong - I hope they prove me wrong. But all I see right now is a team full of injured, overpaid individuals who don't know how to win as a team. Chokers. Brittle chokers, at that. I'm not an optimist; I'm a realist - I guess its my calvinism coming through...or something. :laugh:

 

Well I am calvinistic too, but I guess it produces the opposite effect with me. :laugh:
Maybe you just view them as chokers and chalk the season up as a lost cause as a why of dealing with disappointment.

 

Andy, what can we do to talk you off the ledge? :wavey:

 

That's probably it more than anything. At this point, any success they have will be gravy to me.

 

So, you guys know that Edwin Encarnacion jacked a 3 run HR to beat Arizona, right? On the site that shall not be named, they have the clip where Jeff Brantley, analyst I guess, says that Encarnacion should be taken out of the game because he's not a clutch hitter. EE promptly hits the game winning HR.

If you believe in clutch hitting as an ability, then average with runners on would be the stat you look at, right? Last year, EE led the Reds with a .360 average with runners on.

Check out what Dusty had to say about EE hitting it out.

"You can't let him swing in that situation," Baker said. "He was struggling. I told (coach Chris Speier), 'I kind of hope he doesn't get it down so can hit a three-run homer, and he hit a three-run homer."

"Being on the other side, he was one of the guys I didn't want to see up there in that situation," Baker said. "He's a clutch man."

Here are 7 things that are disturbing, courtesy of the site that shall not be named.

1) Dusty Baker didn't want EE swinging at all because he was "struggling."

2) Dusty wanted EE bunting, even though EE hasn't had a single sacrifice hit in over 7 years of playing baseball in the United States.

3) Dusty wanted EE bunting, even though he thinks EE performs well in clutch situations.

4) "clutch man"

5) Dusty wanted EE bunting, even though he believed that if he didn't get the bunt down, he would hit a home run.

6) The Reds hired Dusty Baker to be their Manager.

7) There are still some people in the Queen City who are not sending a handwritten letter every single day to Reds ownership begging for Baker to be fired.

The Reds were my childhood team and I'm looking at the Cincinnati Reds Kool-Aid this year and eyeing it and thinking it could be mighty tasty. Then, I see Dusty Baker's the one doing the pouring and I just can't bring myself to take the cup.

 

Before I delve into this, let me ask: do you tow the Sabrmetric line that there is no such thing as clutch hitting? Cowboy says a lot of things - occasionally good ones. He's no Nuxy. I'd rather hear the Brennaman boys together in the booth, or Chris Welsh. But then, I'd have to give up hearing him on TV.

I will say this: I think you're wrong....about number 7. I don't know too many Cincinnatians who aren't still writing to Mr. Castellini and Mr. Krivsky, wondering if Aaron Harang or Cueto or Volquez or Arryoyo won't have to have their arms surgically rebuilt by the All Star break. Dusty was almost crucified at Fountain Square for sending down Jay Bruce. I haven't read the quote where he wanted him bunting. I'll have to google and see if I can find a site that goes unnamed

As for talking Andy off the ledge, tell him the Metrodome is being imploded and you have him a ticket to the viewing :laugh:

Look forward to hearing your reply.

 

Clutch hitting, or the lack thereof, both exist, notwithstanding protestations from Bill James, TomVols or ccrobinson.

0-5; getting closer to the ledge every day. Exhibit A for poor clutch hitting.

 

I'll answer that by quoting Dan Fox, author for the statistics-based journal "Baseball Prospectus".

While there may be a small clutch ability, that ability is far outweighed by the normal differences in overall performance. IOW, the best players do best in the clutch.

Look at Ortiz and Jeter, recognized as 2 of the "clutchiest" players in the game. Over the past 3 years, Ortiz has his .296 in all situations and .331 with runners in scoring position. Jeter has batted .315 in all situations and .310 with runners in scoring position. But, everytime Ortiz hits a game-winning HR, it leads Sportscenter and resonates more in the psyche than anytime he might fail. And, when Jeter wins Game 4 of the '01 WS with a HR, he's dubbed Mr. November, even though he batted .148 in that series.

Freddy Sanchez won the '06 NL batting title with a .344 average and hit .386 with runners in scoring position that year. Sounds pretty cluch. Here's what Freddy had to say about clutch hitting.

In the article I'm pulling most of this from, Jim Colburn, Pirates pitching coach at the time the article was written, cited Joe Rudi as being clutch.

Joe Rudi was a career .264 hitter. Guess what his postseason batting average was. You win if you said .264.

In his career, Rudi went .264/.311/.427.
Postseason: .264/.329/.386

He was pretty much the same player in the postseason as he was in the regular season.

Take a look at Derek Jeter's numbers.

Derek Jeter's Career Splits: .317/.388/.463
Derek Jeter's Career Postseason splits: .314/.384/.479


Mr. Clutch is actually Mr. Exactly the Same No Matter What Month You Are Talking About. He is Mr. Equally Excellent Hitting SS Every Month from April to November. He is Mr. Outrageously Similar Statistics Every 30 Days. In the 2004 ALCS, the one that earned A-Rod the reputation as a non-clutch player, Jeter went 6 for 30 and had a line of .200/.333/.233. So, why is Jeter clutch again?

A-Rod's reputation as a postseason failure basically stems from 3 straight bad series. Here's his line from those series:

16 games, .183/.300/.33, 10 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI

Here are some players in baseball history that had a similar or worse 3-series stretch.



C Yogi Berra, 47WS-50WS ... 14 G, .140/.204/.260, 6 R, 2 HR, 5 RBI

1B Jeff Bagwell, 97NLDS-99NLDS ... 11 G, .128/.261/.128, 3 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI

2B Jackie Robinson, 47WS-52WS ... 19 G, .212/.342/.303, 9 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI
SS Derek Jeter, 01ALDS-01WS ... 17 G, .226/.262/.290, 5 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI
3B Mike Schmidt, 77NLCS-80NLCS ... 13 G, .164/.233/.218, 4 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI
OF Babe Ruth, 18WS-22WS ... 14 G, .211/.333/.368, 4 R, 1 HR, 7 RBI
OF Mickey Mantle, 61WS-63WS ... 13 G, .130/.216/.217, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 RBI
OF Ted Williams, 46WS ... 7 G, .200/.333/.200, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI
DH David Ortiz, 02ALDS-03ALDS ... 14 G, .200/.231/.280, 0 R, 0 HR, 6 RBI

What a bunch of chokers.

So, Tom, do you think most Cincy fans are writing ownership to fire Dusty Baker? I'm down with that. Is there a petition? I'd sign one on general principle.

Your turn to provide some evidence to refute what I posted above.

 

I do not generally agree with the Sabrmetric position that there is no such thing as clutch hitting. However, I'd like to see the stats that prove someone is a Mendoza line hitter but in the clutch becomes some character out of Greek myth.

That said, I think we have to define our terms. What is "clutch hitting?" Is it late in the game? RISP? Two outs? Pitcher's count? Could a clutch hit come in the first inning?

I do think CCROB is right in that there's a lot that the Boo-Yah boys make of this. Jeter gets a lot of press just for wearing pinstripes and because he supposedly has dated superstars.

I have more to say but I'm out of time....I have an interesting case study in "clutch hitting"

Kudos on some good research, CCRob.

As far as a petition, I do not know of one right off the top of my head.

More to come.....