Predictions on Shutdown/Debt Ceiling

[InTheLight]

Let's make predictions on how we think the impasse in Washington will be resolved. Not how we want to see it turn out, but how we think it will turn out.

There were a couple of developments recently that gave me an idea of how I think it will play out.

1. Boehner told Republican lawmakers that he is determined to prevent a federal default and would pass a measure to raise the debt ceiling through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes. It is being suggested that he would go so far as to do it with a majority of Dem votes, not Rep votes. So there is his signal that he is going to cave in.

2. "We're not going to be disrespected," Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told The Washington Examiner. "We have to get something out of this. And I don't know what that even is."

3. Obama's continued hard line insistence that he won't negotiate the ACA against the government shutdown. (Actually it's kind of refreshing to see a politician state a position and hold to it, even if I disagree with him.)

4. The mood in Washington is pivoting to the debt ceiling debate.

So what do we have here? A signal from Boehner that he will not allow the US to default on its debts, the need for Republicans to save face and get some concession, any concession from Obama, and Obama's continued hard line on no compromise on ObamaCare.

Therefore, the government will remain shutdown until the debt ceiling is resolved. Kind of a two for one deal. I predict this will happen sometime after October 14th. I think it will take a big loss on Wall Street on that Monday--to go with the more than 2% the market has already lost in the past week or so--to give a sense of urgency to the problem. Republicans will go to Obama with hat in hand and beg for a concession on ObamaCare in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Obama and Reid will reluctantly give it to them, something minor like removing exemptions from ObamaCare for Congress and their staff. Or maybe even a delay in the personal mandate for a year so it dovetails with the employer mandate.

Then Republicans can say they stood up to the President and got part of ObamaCare repealed whilst Obama can say he avoided a debt default and withstood the Republicans for over two weeks.

What do you think will happen?

 

[thisnumbersdisconnected]

(Actually it's kind of refreshing to see a politician state a position and hold to it, even if I disagree with him.)

I'm mystified as to how you can call this "refreshing" when it is nothing more than the same old Great Pretender B/S, rewriting history, making false claims about precedent, refusing to give the democratic process a chance to work, which means compromise and deal-making. As I've repeatedly said the last few weeks, that is how our government works. If one side refuses to talk, the system fails, and he is the only one refusing to talk.

On the other side of the coin, Republicans have continued to offer bills that would fund the government, except for the misbegotten ACA, so as to end the shutdown. They want to talk about the ACA. Obviously they have a couple ideas -- defund, or delay. The Great Pretender, who denies that chiefs of state throughout U.S. history have negotiated and compromised -- a bold-faced lie -- refuses to have it any way but his own.

And yet you continue to claim it is the Republicans who "won't compromise." Just as some consistently hear what they want to hear, apparently they also see what we want to see.

 

[InTheLight]

I'm mystified as to how you can call this "refreshing" when it is nothing more than the same old Great Pretender B/S, rewriting history, making false claims about precedent, refusing to give the democratic process a chance to work, which means compromise and deal-making.

I'm talking about his negotiating stance that he will not budge on ACA. He said it over and over and over again and he hasn't moved from it. That is kind of refreshing--to see a politician actually do what they say they will do.

And yet you continue to claim it is the Republicans who "won't compromise." Just as some consistently hear what they want to hear, apparently they also see what we want to see.

Speaking of wanting to see and hear only what they want to see and hear: Show me where I've said the Republicans "won't compromise". You can't. I've said all along that the Republicans will cave in.

As per the OP, do you have any predictions?

 

[Aaron]

That is kind of refreshing--to see a politician actually do what they say they will do.

That's how I feel about the house republicans right now.

 

[InTheLight]

What Boehner should do is pass a full CR with all special exemptions and illegal buyouts Obama has done to Obamacare for his friends companies, politicians, and unions removed.

The full law goes into effect for everyone as of January 1. Then say - "You wanted Obamacare - you got Obamacare. Let the citizen's decide in the next election if it was a bright idea".

If the Dems refuse to pass it - then that shows their hypocrisy and they take sole blame for the government shutdown.

 

[InTheLight]

Therefore, the government will remain shutdown until the debt ceiling is resolved. Kind of a two for one deal. I predict this will happen sometime after October 14th. I think it will take a big loss on Wall Street on that Monday--to go with the more than 2% the market has already lost in the past week or so--to give a sense of urgency to the problem. Republicans will go to Obama with hat in hand and beg for a concession on ObamaCare in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Obama and Reid will reluctantly give it to them, something minor like removing exemptions from ObamaCare for Congress and their staff. Or maybe even a delay in the personal mandate for a year so it dovetails with the employer mandate.

Then Republicans can say they stood up to the President and got part of ObamaCare repealed whilst Obama can say he avoided a debt default and withstood the Republicans for over two weeks.

What do you think will happen?

As of today the stock market is down 2% since the opening bell on Oct 1st. And it is down 3.8% since Sept. 24th, the first day that it was reported that Wall Street was retreating because of fears the government would shutdown.

 

[saturneptune]

Let's make predictions on how we think the impasse in Washington will be resolved. Not how we want to see it turn out, but how we think it will turn out.

There were a couple of developments recently that gave me an idea of how I think it will play out.

1. Boehner told Republican lawmakers that he is determined to prevent a federal default and would pass a measure to raise the debt ceiling through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes. It is being suggested that he would go so far as to do it with a majority of Dem votes, not Rep votes. So there is his signal that he is going to cave in.

2. "We're not going to be disrespected," Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told The Washington Examiner. "We have to get something out of this. And I don't know what that even is."

3. Obama's continued hard line insistence that he won't negotiate the ACA against the government shutdown. (Actually it's kind of refreshing to see a politician state a position and hold to it, even if I disagree with him.)

4. The mood in Washington is pivoting to the debt ceiling debate.

So what do we have here? A signal from Boehner that he will not allow the US to default on its debts, the need for Republicans to save face and get some concession, any concession from Obama, and Obama's continued hard line on no compromise on ObamaCare.

Therefore, the government will remain shutdown until the debt ceiling is resolved. Kind of a two for one deal. I predict this will happen sometime after October 14th. I think it will take a big loss on Wall Street on that Monday--to go with the more than 2% the market has already lost in the past week or so--to give a sense of urgency to the problem. Republicans will go to Obama with hat in hand and beg for a concession on ObamaCare in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Obama and Reid will reluctantly give it to them, something minor like removing exemptions from ObamaCare for Congress and their staff. Or maybe even a delay in the personal mandate for a year so it dovetails with the employer mandate.

Then Republicans can say they stood up to the President and got part of ObamaCare repealed whilst Obama can say he avoided a debt default and withstood the Republicans for over two weeks.

What do you think will happen?

I predict the two sides will remain so stubborn that the shutdown will not be solved by the time the debt ceiling is reached. At that point I predict we will default. Maybe not the 1st of November, but by December 1, Social Security checks, veteran benefits, and federal-military retirement will not be paid. It makes me shudder the reaction of the American people, especially the lack of a Social Security check. Personally, I have made plans for each of those scenarios.

Your thread is asking for a prediction, not another thread for arguing one side or the other. In the final analysis, I do not know which side the American people will blame. My guess is that there is enough to go around, but have a gut feeling the Republicans are going to come out on the short end of the stick. If that be true, the people will not forget this episode by 2014 election day. It could be the Republicans get a reaction that produces exactly the opposite of their desired result. That is not my wish, because the only way we are going to get out of this mess is to elect Congressmen with common sense, a heart for serving the people, and a belief that the Constitution guides our destiny.

In the short term, I have put all of my 401K in low paying but guaranteed funds such as cash and treasuries. I can switch back any day. I also know which part of my personal budget can be cut such as frivolous utilities like internet, cell phone, and cable. There are so many areas that will be slammed if the United States defaults, they have not all been imagined. For example, without air traffic controllers, the travel industry and related areas will be shellacked. Food inspections, medical research and the like would stop. We always harp on food stamps, welfare, etc, but each of us will feel something, depending on our occupation and station in life. Even the Baptist pastor will feel the pinch. No income for families means no offerings. I could go on and on, but one gets the idea.

 

[Revmitchell]

Let's make predictions on how we think the impasse in Washington will be resolved. Not how we want to see it turn out, but how we think it will turn out.

There were a couple of developments recently that gave me an idea of how I think it will play out.

1. Boehner told Republican lawmakers that he is determined to prevent a federal default and would pass a measure to raise the debt ceiling through a combination of Republican and Democratic votes. It is being suggested that he would go so far as to do it with a majority of Dem votes, not Rep votes. So there is his signal that he is going to cave in.

2. "We're not going to be disrespected," Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-Ind.) told The Washington Examiner. "We have to get something out of this. And I don't know what that even is."

3. Obama's continued hard line insistence that he won't negotiate the ACA against the government shutdown. (Actually it's kind of refreshing to see a politician state a position and hold to it, even if I disagree with him.)

4. The mood in Washington is pivoting to the debt ceiling debate.

So what do we have here? A signal from Boehner that he will not allow the US to default on its debts, the need for Republicans to save face and get some concession, any concession from Obama, and Obama's continued hard line on no compromise on ObamaCare.

Therefore, the government will remain shutdown until the debt ceiling is resolved. Kind of a two for one deal. I predict this will happen sometime after October 14th. I think it will take a big loss on Wall Street on that Monday--to go with the more than 2% the market has already lost in the past week or so--to give a sense of urgency to the problem. Republicans will go to Obama with hat in hand and beg for a concession on ObamaCare in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Obama and Reid will reluctantly give it to them, something minor like removing exemptions from ObamaCare for Congress and their staff. Or maybe even a delay in the personal mandate for a year so it dovetails with the employer mandate.

Then Republicans can say they stood up to the President and got part of ObamaCare repealed whilst Obama can say he avoided a debt default and withstood the Republicans for over two weeks.

What do you think will happen?

You misjudge Obama. You think he is acting out of principle. He is not. He is acting out of fear and arrogance. Fear because of lack of people skills, he could not negotiate his way out of a wet paper sack. Arrogance because he knows he has most of the press to cover for his lack of leadership abilities.

 

[Revmitchell]

And not negotiating is not negotiating. And Obama in all his not negotiating is flat out lying about the results of the debt limit increase and whether or not this has been done before. Nothing to admire there.

 

[saturneptune]

That's how I feel about the house republicans right now.

In other words, you feel a group of people who are big government spenders, do not follow the Constitution, nor serve the American people are refreshing. What kind of deodorant do you use? Left Guard?

 

[webdog]

Obama will start taking heat after 3 weeks of healthcare.gov not working and polls showing people are not signing up, but are crashing the site finding out how to avoid the penalty. He will then suspend ACA until 2014 in exchange for raising the debt ceiling and no budget being passed, and will take the credit for reaching across the aisle as the great community organizer he is. With ACA being suspended until after the midterm elections, the GOP will fail to gain the advantage in the senate...and Emperor Palpatine will continue he devious plan of reducing this country to third world status...as was his 'dream from his father'.

 

[InTheLight]

You misjudge Obama. You think he is acting out of principle. He is not. He is acting out of fear and arrogance. Fear because of lack of people skills, he could not negotiate his way out of a wet paper sack. Arrogance because he knows he has most of the press to cover for his lack of leadership abilities.

You can stop derailing the thread and offer a prediction.

 

[Revmitchell]

You can stop derailing the thread and offer a prediction.

Actually I repsonded directly to your post more specifically point number 3.

 

[Crabtownboy]

Actually I repsonded directly to your post more specifically point number 3.

Again, ad nauseam, you refuse to reply honestly to a posts comment.

If there is a default Rev. it will be very painful for you ... not as painful for me I expect, but it will be painful for both of us and it is the Republicans and their fear of the Tea Party that will have done it.

 

[Revmitchell]

Again, ad nauseam, you refuse to reply honestly to a posts comment.

If there is a default Rev. it will be very painful for you ... not as painful for me I expect, but it will be painful for both of us and it is the Republicans and their fear of the Tea Party that will have done it.

Seriously I am embarrassed for you.

 

[Crabtownboy]

Seriously I am embarrassed for you.

Somehow I doubt that.

So, back to the topic. What is your prediction of what will happen if the government defaults on its obligations?

 

[poncho]

We all know how this latest installment of Beltway theater ends: the negotiations continue until the 11th hour and 59th minute or maybe just after midnight, followed by a market flush, followed by a prompt compromise which retroactively fixes everything that was wrong, and with the US debt ceiling being raised by another $1.1 trillion.

Below is Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid commenting on precisely this.

 

[FollowTheWay]

You misjudge Obama. You think he is acting out of principle. He is not. He is acting out of fear and arrogance. Fear because of lack of people skills, he could not negotiate his way out of a wet paper sack. Arrogance because he knows he has most of the press to cover for his lack of leadership abilities.

Why should the President cave in to a ridiculous demand by the House Republicans. Maybe the Democrats should counter with a proposal to accept the Republicans offer if all of their sons immediately join the military. They love war. Why shouldn't they be willing to do that?

 

[poncho]

Why should the President cave in to a ridiculous demand by the House Republicans. Maybe the Democrats should counter with a proposal to accept the Republicans offer if all of their sons immediately join the military. They love war. Why shouldn't they be willing to do that?

You got the partisan bug bad don't ya?

 

[InTheLight]

Therefore, the government will remain shutdown until the debt ceiling is resolved. Kind of a two for one deal. I predict this will happen sometime after October 14th. I think it will take a big loss on Wall Street on that Monday--to go with the more than 2% the market has already lost in the past week or so--to give a sense of urgency to the problem. Republicans will go to Obama with hat in hand and beg for a concession on ObamaCare in exchange for raising the debt ceiling. Obama and Reid will reluctantly give it to them, something minor like removing exemptions from ObamaCare for Congress and their staff.

Here's the latest.

Breaking: The House will vote tonight on a plan to reopen the government and avoid defaulting on the debt, according to Congressional sources. After listening to House members at Republican conference this morning, House Republican leaders planned to bring a plan to the floor that will end Obamcare subsidies for elected officials and staff in Washington.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...wn-8/?id=b2b00477-bf28-44f8-911a-d92808e05f79
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...bt-ceiling-government-funding-in-response-to/



Ha ha ha! Pathetic Republicans. Told ya!