SARS is as deadly as Bubonic plague

The following is from a CNN web site:


DISEASE FATALITY RATES
Rates are expressed in percentages
Ebola 36 to 88
Smallpox 30
Gastrointestinal anthrax 25 to 60
Cutaneous anthrax 20
Dengue hemorrhagic fever 20
Yellow fever 20
Bubonic plague 15.4
SARS 15
Meningoccal disease* 12
West Nile virus 12
Tetanus 11
Diphtheria 10
Typhoid fever 10
Rocky Mountain spotted fever 5.2

 

The following quote is also from CNN:

A new study of 1,400 SARS patients in Hong Kong by London's Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine found that the mortality rate is much higher than originally thought and that older people are much likely to die from SARS.

The study found as much as 50 percent of the people older than 60 died from the disease. For people under 60, the mortality rate was between 7 percent and 13 percent, said epidemiologist Dr. Azra Ghani.

 

Bumping this up.

 

Helen, I think you have misunderstood something you found on the Internet. You wrote about the flu and then directly below that you copied part of a report from Imperial College in London, citing high death rates. You seem to imply that the high death rates were that of flu, but in fact the article you quoted was talking about the death rate of SARS. I found an article in the Washington Post which confirms death rates for SARS much greater than flu. Here is the article:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27675-2003May7.html
--
Estimated SARS Death Rate Rises to 15%
WHO Revises Method of Calculating Mortality;
Illness More Deadly to Elderly

By Rob Stein and Ceci Connolly
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, May 8, 2003; Page A26

The death rate from severe acute
respiratory syndrome has increased
sharply since the epidemic began,
and the new lung infection is now
killing about 15 percent of victims
overall, the World Health
Organization concluded yesterday.

It remains unclear whether the death
rate is increasing as the disease
spreads, or whether the true death
rate is simply emerging as more
data become available. In either case, the relatively high death rate
underscores the seriousness of the
threat, WHO said.

"This is a disease that has a high
case-fatality rate," said Klaus Stohr,
WHO's top SARS scientist. "The
case-fatality rate that we're seeing
emphasizes even further the need to
act decisively now."

According to the new calculations,
SARS kills less than 1 percent of
those 24 or younger, but the death
rate jumps to 6 percent at ages 25 to 44, to 15 percent for those 45 to 64
and to more than 50 percent for
those 65 and older, WHO said.

That means SARS has a death rate
far higher than those of most other
respiratory infections. The typical flu season has a death rate of less than
1 percent. The devastating Spanish
flu of 1918 to 1919 had a death rate
of less than 3 percent.

SARS does not appear to be as
contagious as the flu, but it is the
first dangerous new disease that can
be spread directly from one person
to another to emerge in decades, and
it remains untreatable.

"We don't want to add to panic,"
Stohr said. "But we want to show
that this disease should not be
underestimated."

The new estimates are based on an
analysis of the most recent data
from everywhere SARS has erupted
-- Canada, China, Singapore,
Vietnam and Hong Kong -- and
represent the first attempt to
produce a comprehensive picture of
the disease's mortality, WHO said.
An independent estimate released
the day before in the Lancet medical
journal, which looked only at Hong
Kong, projected that the mortality
rate there could eventually hit about
20 percent.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention,
under intense pressure from WHO, said

yesterday that it will begin reporting
more detailed information on SARS cases as
early as today.

The CDC has refused to release specific data
on the 63 probable SARS cases
it has been tracking, notably how and where
those patients were infected,
whether they spread SARS to others, their
ages, medical history and travel
patterns.

The Atlanta-based agency has instead released
state-by-state figures on
suspected and probable cases and has
characterized them only in general
terms. WHO experts said that without the more
detailed information, it
becomes far more difficult, if not
impossible, to monitor the worldwide trends of
the epidemic.

"We need to make sure we know where disease
is occurring and that disease is
not exported from those sites to other
countries," said David L. Heymann, who
heads WHO's communicable diseases division.

No one has suggested that the United States
is "exporting" SARS cases, but the
information gleaned here could help
scientists track the movement of the virus
and better understand how it behaves.

If federal health officials were to learn,
for instance, that a patient in the United
States had likely contracted the illness in a
country that has not been identified
as a SARS hot spot, that could be an early
warning of another problem area.
Similarly, if new cases arise in individuals
who recently traveled to Canada or
Vietnam, that would suggest that those
countries have not put the outbreak
behind them.

"Infectious diseases know and respect no
borders," Heymann told members of
a House oversight panel at a hearing
yesterday. "Information provided early can
help nations stop outbreaks."

WHO initially estimated that the death rate
from SARS was less than 4
percent. The estimate climbed to a range of 6
percent to 10 percent in recent
weeks as the toll mounted.

WHO said the mortality rate ranges from a low
of 8 percent in Hanoi, the site
of one of the earliest outbreaks, to a high
of 15 percent to 19 percent in
Canada. Hong Kong currently has a death rate
of 11 percent to 17 percent,
compared with 13 percent to 15 percent in
Singapore and 5 percent to 13
percent in China.

The variations among countries, and the
rising death rate overall, may be the
result of the disease hitting older people
during later outbreaks. It could also be
the result of the disease producing a more
lethal form of the illness in some
places, such as Hong Kong, or simply that
enough time has passed to get a
more accurate estimate, Stohr said.

"Overall, the case-fatality rate has
increased globally. That we know. There
appears to be an evolution over time," Stohr
said.

 

>>>>>So why are they calling it SARS? Why not simply say, "This appears to be a strain of flu which is going rather quickly into pneumonia in the older folk and thus producing a death rate of 50% or more." <<<<<

Because it is not the same disease as flu. SARS is caused by a different type of virus that produces different symptoms and has a much higher death rate than flu. There are of course various flu strains and they vary because of differences in the virus, but the virus that causes SARS is a Corona virus, different from flu viruses. The great flu epidemic of 1918 did have a high mortality rate, which is reported at less than 3 percent. But the best available figure for the SARS mortality is 15%, which is several times higher than the flu outbreak of 1918, and many times higher than the fatality rate of recent flu epidemics, which are less than 1 percent.

 

Helen,

For emphasis, I am posting here an important paragraph of the Washington post story, which directly contradicts what you have been claiming about SARS:

"That means SARS has a death rate
far higher than those of most other
respiratory infections. The typical flu season has a death rate of less than
1 percent. The devastating Spanish
flu of 1918 to 1919 had a death rate
of less than 3 percent."

 

>>>>>But reporting it as though one could compare the two rates makes it sound like SARS is unbelievably more deadly than the Spanish flu was. This is hysteria-mongering reporting.<<<<<

No, Helen, the panic in China and Hong Kong is not based on hysteria, but on the real fact that SARS is more deadly than the Spanish flu and many times more deadly than ordinary flu. If China cannot contain it, millions will die in China alone and it will probably spread here. The only good news is that it does seem possible to contain it and also it is perhaps not as contagious as flu. But this is one serious disease.

 

>>>>>>Peter, they don't know what it is. But it is a lot like flu! And so far the death rate is not nearly as bad as the press is hysterically making it out to be.<<<<<<

Seems to me that the press is only reporting the factual death rate. If you have evidence to the contrary, that the press is not correctly reporting it, then show that evidence. Seems that you initially got it wrong and find it hard to own up to it. The Washington Post article says that the death rate from SARS is much greater than for the common flu. You managed to pull a 60 percent death rate out of the air, for the 1918 flu. I don't think you have any solid basis for that number. But whatever the death rate in 1918, the SARS death rate, at 15 percent is very serious and far greater than the death rate of common flu - in spite of your attempts to confuse the issue.

>>>The symptoms are EXACTLY the same...<<<<<

No, the symptoms are not exactly the same...similar but not precisely the same. In SARS, there is a greater percentage of patients with severe breathing problems, which is not present in common flu.

>>>>Now take a look at this:
Q: What’s the mortality rate for SARS?
A: CDC estimated it at about 3 percent, which is much lower than other infectious diseases, but recent reports from Hong Kong and Singapore suggest it might get as high as 10 percent.<<<<<<

That is several weeks old. A new study was released recently that puts it at 15 percent. This seems to be the best information currently available.

>>>>>>Who is profiting? There is some reason for this manufactured hysteria, because that is exactly what it is.<<<<<<<

Rubbish. You are looking at a disease that if not brought under control will change the history of the world. It is that serious. If unchecked it will kill millions and greatly affect the world economy. It has already greatly impacted the economy of Hong Kong.

[ May 14, 2003, 02:29 AM: Message edited by: Peter101 ]

 

SARS Spreads to Taiwan's South, Hospital Hit
Wed May 14, 2003 01:57 AM ET
TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan quarantined 110 medical workers at a major hospital on Wednesday in a bid to contain the first outbreak of SARS in the island's south.
The news sparked fears of a wider outbreak in Taiwan and was another setback to government predictions that SARS would be under control in four to five weeks.

Taiwan is already struggling to contain a major outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the north and on Wednesday reported another death and 18 new infections, bringing the death toll to 31 and probable cases to 238.

The island has the third-highest number of deaths and infections in the world after China and Hong Kong.

Health officials said a woman who visited a SARS-hit hospital in the capital Taipei last month had likely spread the virus to 11 nurses and eight patients at the Chang Gung Memorial Hospital in Kaohsiung, the island's second largest city.

Health officials said 110 health workers at the hospital were placed under quarantine and tried to reassure people there was no need for the hospital to be sealed.

"This is a limited-cluster infection within a single ward," Chen Tzay-jinn, director-general of the Center for Disease Control, told a news conference.

Until the Chang Gung outbreak, the majority of Taiwan's SARS cases were linked to a single hospital in Taipei.

The government has stepped up measures to try to control the spread of the respiratory disease, such as setting up video cameras in the homes of people under quarantine orders and is considering ordering police to track down violators.

Taipei is being disinfected district by district and all people taking trains, the subway and aircraft must wear masks. All restaurant workers are also required to wear masks.

Taiwan's central bank and Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday they would suspend their daily media briefings until the illness was brought under control.

Taiwan also had 265 suspected SARS cases, four more than reported on Tuesday, the Department of Health said.

 

From CNN:

BEIJING, China -- China has threatened to execute or jail for life anyone who deliberately spreads the killer SARS virus.

The news came as officials in Taiwan announced the biggest one-day jump in SARS cases on the island amid a raft of hospital infections.

China issued a harsh interpretation of its laws on contagious disease after reports people were violating quarantine orders or refusing to admit to the symptoms.

The Supreme Court warning Thursday said people who violate quarantines and spread the virus can be imprisoned for up to seven years, China's official Xinhua news agency reported.

Those who cause death or serious injury by "deliberately spreading" the virus can be sentenced to prison terms of 10 years to life or might be executed.

China recorded four SARS deaths on Thursday, pushing its death toll to 271, and 52 new cases. It has about two-thirds of the world's 7,700 known SARS cases.

Human rights groups said the punishment, laid down by the Supreme Court and the chief prosecutor, was not approved by China's parliament and violated human rights convenants.

"The measure is too extreme and the punishment too heavy," Hong Kong-based rights activist Frank Lu told Reuters by telephone.

Chinese officials have acknowledged health controls might not be sufficient to contain the epidemic.

Despite a government pledge to be more open with information, Chinese censors blocked the airing of a CNN International interview that criticized the government's handling of SARS. (Full story)

Meanwhile, Taiwan reported 26 new SARS cases and three more deaths on Thursday. (SARS shuts emergency room)

Taiwan, with only a few cases of SARS until late April, now has 264 confirmed cases and 34 deaths -- the worst in the world after mainland China and Hong Kong.

Authorities quarantined about 400 people at two major hospitals -- one in Taipei and another in the southern city of Kaohsiung -- after scores of people in them began showing symptoms.

A third hospital, the Mackay Memorial Hospital in Taipei, reported a probable outbreak after seven doctors and nurses developed SARS-like symptoms.

But there was good news for Canada and Singapore. The WHO said it had taken Canada off its list of areas where SARS was spreading. (SARS no longer spreading)

Canada, with 24 SARS deaths, is the only country outside Asia where people have died, all of them in the area around the financial capital Toronto.

The WHO also welcomed Singapore's move to isolate sick nurses and patients at the city state's largest mental hospital, but said other illnesses might be responsible.

Singapore, with some of the world's strictest anti-SARS measures, looked to have the disease under control until the possible cases announced on Wednesday.

Travel executives meeting in the Philippines said the virus is causing more damage to the global airline industry than the September 11 attacks and the War in Iraq, combined.

"This is a crisis of major proportions," said Thomas Andrew Drysdale, regional director for the International Air Transport Association, adding that the industry lost US$10 billion so far this year on top of US$30 billion in 2002.

"At no time in the history of aviation have we ever seen declines of the magnitude that we are now seeing in the Asian region as a result of SARS," he said. "Virtually every airline in the world is affected."

The global death toll climbed past 600 on Thursday after Hong Kong reported seven deaths, China four and Taiwan three.

Thailand is taking new measures to control the spread of SARS, issuing so-called "SARS passports" to travelers arriving from SARS-affected countries.

Those travelers are required to record their health status in the booklets for ten days -- the incubation time for the virus.

In Hong Kong, where 234 people have died, new SARS cases have dropped into the single digits for 12 consecutive days. Just five new cases were reported in the territory Thursday, for a total of 1,703. Authorities reported another seven deaths.