College conference expansion

The Big Ten, SEC, Pac Ten, and Big 12 have all been talking about or targets of expansion and raiding. Texas has been invited to join everything except the NL West, the Leage of Women Voters, and the English Premier League. At the rate we're going, we could have a few super conferences and a conference or two out there would be non existent or markedly different.

What say you all? Reaction?

 

I think it's a tad bigger than just college football. I think the spector of mega-expansion in basketball also plays into this.

And how it affects UT? How does Nebraska going to the Big Ten and Colorado going to the Pac 10 affect UT exactly?

 

CCRob, let me address your posts and by implication some others.

CW seems to be that the Big Ten will not stop at just one. The Pac 10 is also likely to become the Pac 16. So that means that anywhere from 28-32 teams are going to be in two conferences, creating the so-called first of the super conferences. Why wouldn't the SEC want that designation?

And more to the point, why wouldn't the SEC be sought, after they just doled out checks totaling a quarter of a billion dollars at its conference meetings a couple weeks ago.

As for the sky falling, depending on who you ask, we're losing the following:
1. Traditional rivalries. Why should new conference alignments care about storied rivalries like Texas/Okla, Bama/Tenn, etc.?
2. A shot at a playoff. Every step towards a super conference is one more away from a playoff. Some argue the other direction, but consider this: Bama is the best of the 16 best teams in the South. Texas is the best of the 16 best teams in the West/Southwest. Who could argue that those two did what they had to do to compete for a title? Well, I might but that's another story
3. Lower division sports. Say bye bye to some sports. How can the women's softball team and Texas A&M afford to travel to Pullman, WA for three nights?
4. a 2 digit team field in the NCAA tourney. Go ahead an cry wolf, but the Super conferences will argue that 19 wins in their league is better than 25 in another, and those teams should be given the honor of the dance (translation: we have more teams to support, we need the revenue...give us a 128 team field)
That's why some think the sky is falling.

Why would the SEC expand? Simple. If the Big Ten is a super, the Pac 16 will be, the SEC would almost have to follow suit to maintain $$$ relevance when it comes to renegotiating TV contracts which drive the bus right now.

In closing on the SEC, some have talked of the SEC changing for some time. Really, what has SC and ARk brought to the table? ARK has been unhappy, with some fans wanting to go back to a southwestern-based conference. However, it would be hard to get these schools to leave since their bank accounts are larger thanks to the SEC.

Rumored candidates for the SEC: Ga Tech (a former member), Fl State, Clemson, Va Tech, Miami, the Texas schools, Southern Miss (not likely as much now), Louisville, Cincinnati, NC, NC State. I can see a 16 team expansion but some have wondered about a three division conf with 5 each or four divisions of four each. Best two div champs meet to decide the football champion.

And just for kicks: I know many donors and a large number of fans of Kentucky who would love to leave the SEC. You heard me right. They believe they're bigger than the conference. They long for the ACC where they can be more competitive in other sports besides basketball. Stranger things could happen.

Utah, BYU, TCU and Houston might make for an interesting addition, but no way do they replace Texas, Okla, Okla St, and Colorado for starters.

As for the Big East, where do these schools go? If the SEC raids the ACC, maybe Louisville, Rutgers (providing they don't go to the Big ten), Pitt (providing they don't go to the Big Ten), Cincinnati (providing they don't go elsewhere), Notre Dame (a Super Conference is all that will get them somewhere and I still don't see that as likely) all become ACC candidates.

I wonder if we won't see a couple of minor conferences fold.
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According to the latest on ESPN: it's official - Nebraska goes to the Big Ten July 1, 2011. Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma St will jump to the Pac 10 by middle of next week. So they need one more for the Pac 16 to be complete. Texas A&M will be that one if they do not consider application to SEC. Utah has been mentioned as a possible 16th Pac 16 member. Kansas and Iowa State are asking around. Baylor is considering the MWC. That sound you hear is dominoes falling. And they're falling fast.

 

Wow, a lot to go after here.

First, the ACC needs to meet the Ivy league if they're bragging about private schools And private doesn't mean better. But your number is incorrect. CUSA has an equally high percentage of private schools (tulsa, Rice, SMU, Tulane and I think Houston hasn't been public all that long). Second, I would question the contention that Clemson, UNC, and UM are academic monsters. Third, yes the SEC has public schools, but a good number have academic notches on their belt. UT's Businesss school is a top 15 b-school and their engineering is up there as well. Fla has its high water marks. UGa is considered to be one of the top two or three public schools in America. Ole Miss has a storied academic tradition and a first rate law school. Auburn is well noted. And being a Tennessee guy I refuse to give any props to Bama

Fourth, Half the schools on your Big East wish list are either commuter schools or a step above. I don't see the ACC salivating over them. That said, the ACC clearly would lose to the SEC and would have to take what they can get. Navy isn't going anywhere - the military academies have an allergy to conferences in this day and time. But you never know. Fifth, UK isn't going anywhere. They're not that stupid. You can't leave the dollars and prestige of the SEC to go down a notch.

Sixth, A&M going to the SEC would be a huge deal - for the Aggies. The SEC gains little more than a toehold into Texas with the whole state going Pac 10. As for who the SEC would go after, four teams from the ACC have always been targets and interested: Miami, Fl St, Clemson and Ga Tech. In a four division four team scenario, that makes for an interesting division don't you think? In the west (assuming the pac 16 takes shape) A&M might get targeted (if they don't become the 16th team), So Miss, and some say TCU is a long shot. I believe they're VERY long, though not out of the question. Baylor might make a good choice in the West. They'd be targeted for the Big 12 if it tried to survive with the likes of Houston, Utah (if they don't go Pac 16), etc.

Here's the deal: after mid next week, when Texas, TX Tech, A&M, Okla, and Okla St will make their moves. The next move decides the game. Will the Big 12 proactively go afte a wish list of schools (which could include Arkanasas, Utah (see above), BYU (see above) TCU (See above - boy how bad would Boise feel now?) OR, would Iowa St, Baylor, and the Kansas schools and Mizzou start looking for parachutes? Whoever makes the first move will decide it all. The Big Ten has another move to make. Do they settle for 16 if the Pac and SEC go for 16? Mizzou and Kansas are still out there, but no one thinks Kansas or K-State is headed anywhere major. Don't me surprised to see the SEC go for Mizzouri. You heard it hear first. They border three SEC states right now.

Think about this: It is entirely feasible...ENTIRELY....that by the end of the Summer, we will have ending dates for the ACC and Big 12 at worst, or Big 12 and Big East and / or CUSA and /or MWC at least. AT LEAST.
It is entirely possible that Rice, Houston, and TCU become part of a Big Eight. (talk about going back in time and stature).

Almost 20 years go Bob Kesling, now the Voice of the Vols, predicted a day when Super Conferences would reign after the SEC expanded to 12 teams. Everyone laughed. Today, the only people laughing are the ones whose coffers just got bigger.

 

I would argue it's been under the surface long before the Big Ten was courting a 12th. It's been talked about ever since the SEC went to 12 and split into divisions back in 1990 (Starting with 1992 season).

If the Pac 10 goes to 16, and if the SEC goes to 15-16, I don't know if the Big Ten will stand pat at 12. They may have their hand forced. Maybe not.

They can't. With the spector of the SEC and or Big Ten going after Texas, Okla and Okla St, the Pac 10 is going to go to at least 14 and more than likely 16, and more than likely by the time we shoot fireworks on our nation's birthday.

I don't think Houston was ever in the SWC were they? And Memphis is interested in two conferences only: the SEC (not much of a chance there) and the Big East (much more likely, especially if the ACC loses some to the SEC and the Big East in turn is raided by the ACC yet again).

I think we've come too far to turn back now, but stranger things have happened.

 

Latest update....

Kansas, K-State and some others are being courted by the MWC, ESPN says. One report says Kansas is interested in the SEC but the feeling is NOT mutual.

Texas and Oklahoma are being courted by the Pac 10 and SEC. The SEC will consider A&M if they don't go to the Pac. The Pac Ten is rumored to be working up a plan to ask for more than one automatic bid to the NCAA tourney and the BCS if they go to 16 teams. Rumor also will be that any conf with that number or slightly less will do the same. Yikes.

Here's the surprising thing....an SEC AD has told ESPN that Fla St, Miami, Clemson and Ga Tech are NOT being considered. Va Tech...maybe.

 

They have four out of 12 (Rice, Tulane, Tulsa, SMU) which is equal to the ACC's four out of 12.

We can go back and forth on the USNWR rankings. As a former University administrator, I could go on and on. It depends on what ranking we're using and why. I do know that the perception is that the ACC is a superior academic conference. Often, the data doesn't hold that, but that's another discussion. Like you I don't want to see the ACC decimated, though some believe it to be fitting. I disagree. I can't blame the Big East schools for wanting in the ACC as it was a tad of a step up.

I do have to take this under consideration:

1. Most ACC are private? 4 out of 12 is most?
2. Size? The SEC has some institutions that are larger. So? Take an anomoly out or two and the figures would be somewhat comparable.
3. Specialized public schools? How is Clemson and Va Tech specialized? I know Ga Tech is "known' as an engineering school, but that's a rather specious argument.

I appreciate your love for the ACC. I don't have a major problem with it and hope it stays together. We'll see.

 

I had a lengthy refutation about your enrollment numbers in the ACC (more bigger schools than you give credit) and how in one metric Clemson isn't even in the top five schools in its state; how the fact that a school has an engineering dept (and a good one) doesn't automatically make it the Harvard of the south. But then IE did something wierd. I thought the post got posted. No matter....we'll let it die. You and I can join hands and hope the ACC hangs on.

Incidentally, at dinner a couple nights ago I floated the idea to a friend that I wondered if the BIg 12 would tell Texas they could do their own deal, be an independent in a conference and have the best of both worlds. "Never happen" my buddy said. Well, read the papers today and we're seeing just that.

And what if we see MORE independents? Could happen.

 

The latest: Texas, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma will stay in the Big 12. Texas will be allowed to have their "Longhorn Network" and yet be part of the Big 12. All according to ESPN.