Featured NBC Poll has Trump winning by LANDSLIDE

Hmmm...

Internet? How do they know the demographics of who they are polling?

 

If there is no monkey business involved in the November Presidential race I would say that Trump will get around 60% of the votes cast and Hillary --30%. The rest will be divvied up among the rest.

The term landslide will take on an intensity that has never been seen before aside from George Washington's election. In effect though Trump will usher in a revolution --not in name alone.

 

Why? Because it was taken on the internet with no concern over demographics. People can poll more than once, get all their Trump buddies to take the poll. Internet polls are always skewed because it ignores demographics. But of course, Trump and his supporters will use dubious internet polls to complain about a "rigged" election when he loses in a landslide.

 

There is no way he can get 60%, not with how he does among women, and minorities. I've said before I don't think any candidate will get over 50% in this election, considering both sides picked the worst possible person to run for them. Gary Johnsons is pulling support from both sides and will keep everyone under 50%. It is all going to come down to the electoral college, where the Dems already have a huge advantage and Trump is doing nothing to change that.

 

It's a non-scientific poll. Do you REALLY think that Jill Stein has 19%? She's basically a kook! She makes Hillary look like Reagan.

 

You are 100% correct. No candidate is polling nationally higher than the 40-49% range. Sure, Trump will win the red states because they're red states (unless his campaign completely collapses, which I doubt will happen). Clinton will do the same with the blue states, but, as you mentioned, the Electoral College table favors Democrats. Republicans have to win more swing states than Democrats do because of the red state-blue state difference in electoral votes.

Trump is NOT doing well in those swing states. Clinton is unlikable as a candidate, but Trump is making himself so unlikable as to drive people away from him. He has his hardcore supporters, sure, but so does Clinton (who are probably more hardcore Democrats than Clinton supporters specifically). Who will the swing voters pick?

Swing voters don't typically care about the ideological issues of the party purists. If Trump comes across as reckless and scary, then they will vote for Clinton, even if she comes across as inauthentic and dishonest.

To some degree we expect politicians to be liars and cheaters. Clinton's shenanigans are no surprise. What we don't expect is a loose cannon. Trump has to reign himself in some (not completely, or he would lose his appeal) so that he seems like an anti-establishment candidate but one who would provide steady leadership. If he does that, he can win. If he doesn't, on Jan 20, 2017, we'll all be meeting President Hillary Rodham Clinton.

 

Then we just have to disagree. Even if this poll were conducted using appropriate methodology to provide a statistically valid outcome, it would still be an outlier. We would need to see confirmation from other polls before proclaiming anything.

Pollsters put a LOT of effort into trying to make their polls as accurate as possible. Each poll has slightly different methods, so we do have to consider a variety of them. Nevertheless, an internet poll without any demographic or participation controls simply should not be linked with other, professional polls.

 

Is this possible confirmation bias?

 

I've specifically listened to Five Thirty Eight podcasts that discussed in detail the kind of methodologies used for these polls. They are also in the sports prediction market, so credibility is important. If they look stupid in the political realm, they lose face in the sports realm. They have no reason to lie about polling methodology. The only people listening are political wonks who aren't going to be swayed by the discussion anyway.

 

Preferring something because it confirms a desired outcome.

 

If anything, then they should be trying to get the polls as close as possible. If Clinton has a comfortable lead in the polls, that demotivates some voters. If it's a tight election, people are more likely to turn out who might have otherwise stayed at home.

If the polls are trying to help Hillary, they're doing an awful job of it.

 

You can be wrong about a prediction but correct about methodology. And, besides, the methodology is for the polling entities.

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/contacts-and-information/

http://abcnews.go.com/US/PollVault/abc-news-polling-methodology-standards/story?id=145373

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

The methodology is out there. Now, if you believe that these organizations are lying about their methodologies, we will just have to agree to disagree.