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Well, I don't know but I do know it's breaking for Trump now. This presidential election is really hard to gauge with corona and the riots - it's not helping Biden any in what's going down in Philly.
I know there's one person here that's a registered D in Florida, wonder if he's voted yet and if he voted for Biden. No matter, it's the Senate I'm most concerned with, Trump will either drag them down or pull them up - I wouldn't think many would split up their ballot, so if Trump wins, he will keep the Senate and gain in the House, maybe take it. But a Biden win (unlikely) would have the Democrats with the House and maybe even the Senate. That would probably mean seating Mark Kelly, the psycho gun-grabber former astronaut and Susan the RINO Collins will certainly lose over in Maine regardless. Her no vote on Amy made no sense at all, didn't endear herself to Independents but just alienated conservative Republicans.
The old "third tier" states are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Georgia. And Trump was VERY close in Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Trump is the incumbent and the big mo is on his side but who knows?