Active players who will make the Hall of Fame

Noticed that too, huh?

Ed

 

Maybe Pudge will get another ring...who knows. Bench is helped by being part of the BRM. Maybe I can get around to comparing them.

I think having a FP almost 20 points lower than league avg is a black eye. Not exactly stellar in Assists.

Well, I've done the analysis twice. The numbers just don't say what you're asserting. But you mentioned the last several years. Since 1999, Vlad is 5th in BA, 16th in OBP, 2nd in TB, 9th in R, 3rd in Hits, 4th in RBI, 8th in OPS, 8th in HR. He's very good. Upper eschelon. But not HOF. Maybe if he has some lights-out numbers for the next several years. Maybe he's being too overshadowed by the greats at his position. Who knows.

I agree completely, which is why I have argued against this aspect of Bill James's HOF monitor number.

Andy T - on message, and standing on his circular reasoning when no one else will...you gotta love that :laugh:

whoa, Andy breaks out the "appeal to authority" fallacy. Gotta hand it to you Andy, I thought the only logical fallacy you knew was circular reasoning :thumbs:

Assuming this is directed at me: Gee Andy, it sounds like you're putting me down here and insulting my ability to interpret defensive stats. If I saw numbers that showed what you assert, I'd buy your bias..I mean, argument. But you've yet to show them.

Assuming this is directed at me, you know I argue no such thing. I just argue for consistency. I've posted my criteria in the other thread. And numbers are subjective only in how the comparison is to other players and to the era. Simmons has more hits than any other catcher. That's not subjective. He caught 87% of the games he played. That's not subjective. It can be explained away, it can be ignored, but those things are there. Now, when we say Simmons had X amount of hits, but Pudge for instance had Y number, and Pudge's hits are more impressive/less impressive than Simmons, now we're being subjective.

Enough about Simmons. I think he should be in, but you don't. I think we established that fact long ago. I think you established your opinion the moment after you were born, buddy.

 

Baseball Reference.

Among just OF since 1998:
1st in Hits, 2nd in BA, 7th in OBP, 5th in Runs, 5th in doubles, 4th in HR, 4th in SLG, 3rd in OPS, OPS+, and RC.

I just wonder if we aren't being a little too myopic. You can make a case that he's one of the best at his position in a decade (which you have derided before). The era argument may prove problematic.

I'll grant you that if he gets 2,750 hits and 500 HR, he's in, regardless of what he does and despite his poor glove.

Will he be hurt by playing on the Left Coast and in obscurity in Montreal?

 

Randy Johnson: .654 Win pct. 284 career wins. 5 Cy Youngs (1 Triple Crown) and 10 AS games. Gobbs of black ink and a MHOF off the charts. Are we even having this conversation?

Clemens & Maddux: put them both in. However, Clemens needs to knock off the part time bit. He's hurting himself.

Tom Glavine: 299 wins (as of this writing). However, not as dominant in his era as the Big Unit. With at least 500 games, he's 7th in win pct (just over .600). He had three bad years. But he had plenty more good ones. Nowhere near the black ink of the Unit. I believe he'll be in, and he probably should. I believe Rocket, Unit, and Maddux should be first.

Smoltz: Great black ink, and occasionally high era numbers. But will 3 from the same staff get in? 203 wins, .588 win pct. ERA outside 3 of the big 4 we just looked at. He's lead the league in wins twice and has a Cy Young. He outranks Glavine in some categories. However, just on the surface, I'm going to say no.

Rivera: 429 saves (3rd all time). 34 came in October. Tied for best relief ERA all time. 3rd best WHIP all-time for a reliever. Led the league in saves three times. Put him in.

Jeff Kent: 2000 NL MVP. .290 BA and slugs over .500. However, 7th in his era among 2Bs in BA. 8th in OBP. 3rd in Runs and Hits. 2nd in doubles. Just shy of 2,300 hits. Most HR in his era. Highest OPS. If people are questioning Biggio, Kent has no chance. I think Kent is not in at this point, but it's not out of the question if he continues (again, the left coast hurting him?).

More to come........

 

Clemens is currently 3-5 with a 3.92 ERA. How is he hurting himself? Do you mean that if he finishes with a 3.92 ERA that it will somehow affect the 7-time Cy Young award winners credentials to get into the Hall? I don't see how he's hurting himself in any way.

What difference does it make if 3 pitchers from the same team get into the Hall? Also, did you forget that he spent 3 complete seasons as the closer and notched 144 saves? Smoltz is a lock.

 

I do not see how Clemens can hurt himself. He is as sure a lock for the HOF as any player in the league right now.

I also agree that Smoltz will be in the HOF, but probably will take him a few trys.

Did I read on here that someone said Derrick Lee for the HOF? I am a diehard Cubs fan and I really like Lee, however at this point he is not a HOF player. Now if he puts together several more years of strong play he might change that. But right now, he is not.

 

I'm surprised that no one has brought up Ichiro. He's in his 7th MLB season, he has 6 gold gloves, 2 batting titles, 1 MVP (so far), and was the 2001 AL Rookie of the year. He has .332 career avg, .994 career FP, and was the 3rd fastest player in MLB history to 1500 hits. He's got to at least be considered for the HOF.

 

Come on guys, we know the real reason why Tom doesn't think Smoltz is a HOFer :laugh:

I agree about Ichiro. I love to watch him play the game too, he is so different from anyone else in the game right now. Another couple years and he will be a lock for the HOF.

 

CCROB wrote:

Since becoming a PT P, Clemens is 10-11 with no CGs. His ERA this year is teetering towards league avg. His WHIP is sliding. The talking heads (right or wrong...okay...wrongly) pounce if you play one day into an area where you're not just past your prime, but may be in their all-knowing minds, a hindrance. And these have already done that to him. I disagree with them, but it is what it is. I don't think it will hurt him if he stops after another year or two. But if he keeps doing this for four or five more years, the fans will turn and so will the media. His 1st ballot status could take a hit. I wouldn't favor it, but again, perception is reality to the BBWA and media in general.

On Smoltz, I grant you that he's outstanding in October. 15-4 with a 2.65 ERA. I think he probably should be in. However, I just don't know if the voters will allow a 3rd member of that staff in. I think his split time between the 'pen and the rotation may hurt him in the eyes of the omniscient voters. Comparables are Schilling, Drysdale, Orel, Brown, and Gooden. I believe him to be marginal. His October record makes me want to give him the benefit of the doubt, though. However, I just think he may fall through the cracks.

BBWA voters can be very selective about what they choose to care about. Who knows how they'll treat him.

Ichiro: Andy's right. He's not there yet. He's on pace, but not there yet. It will be interesting to see how he gets treated by the voters since he split his time between Japan and here. His HOFM is already well above what a HOFer should be.

Speaking of Andy....

That will kill him in the voters' minds.

I don't disagree. But let me play devil's advocate. These guys have one ring...one. Will that tarnish their reputation? Should it tarnish their reputation? Probably not to the former, but it's not impossible to think the voters will say yes to the latter.

I can agree with that. Anaheim being a big market is irrelevant. It's the whole "Left Coast" thing. ESPN doesn't show him in Prime Time, and October hasn't seen much of him.

Go go Gadget Arms.....Andy's reaching again This reminds me of the PR guy who said Charles Woodson should get credit for every interception his teammates had, because that was a pass not thrown Woodson's way. Kind of like saying it should be newsworthy that I am not running for president.

I'd like to see this mathematically proven. If it's not, then you have a problem. If it is, then no FP should be considered for a RF. Ichiro's FP then is meaningless, in your book. I just can't follow you down sophistry lane, here

Let's see: using his AB, 30 players have BA's higher than his. Only one is not in the HOF, and he's active. 10 have his Slugging pct or higher, and 4 are not in the Hall (3 are active, one player is on both lists - more about him in a moment). So you may very well have an argument here. Again, the fear of being myopic is probably moot.

Back to this one fellow on both lists. Here are his numbers. .331 BA, .429 OBP, .581 SLG. 295 HR, 1,095 RBI. .996 FP, higher than league avg at his position. Does he deserve to be in the Hall?

 

Guess you'll never drop in to see Andy T., then. That is the street he lives on.

Ed

 

* Man-Ram: A bit of a loose cannon on defense. (Ever seen an OF cut a throw by an OF, in the OF the way he did in ’04?) His FP is less than league avg, sometimes markedly so. But at the dish, top five among OF in his era in most of the statistical categories, especially if you consider just their first 12 seasons with his first 12. However, only three players have whiffed more. And his stats take a hit when neutralized for the era and environment. But he will hit 500 HR before the end of the decade, and that will punch his ticket in the minds of many BBWA voters. But my question is this: will he get lost among the glut of supposed great candidates from this era? He suffers when you compare him to OFs all-time, falling way down the list many times. A spectacular ’04 WS with the Red Sox, which might wash away the horrible performances with the Indians in the 90s in the WS. Not quite the black ink of a HOFer, but his HOFM has him in. My only problem with putting him in now is what do you do with the Garret Andersons, Luis Gonzaleses, and players from other “hitting” positions who outrank him in some of the statistical areas? Put him in...just underneath the tag. Maybe when his career his complete, I’ll change my tune and claim he’s one of the greatest ever. It’s not outside the realm of possibility.

* I just spent an hour doing and redoing the full statistical analysis and typing his rank in each category. Both times a surge wiped out what I typed. I'm not doing it a third time

Jim Thome: 489 HR. He hits 500 and conventional wisdom/precedent says this is moot. But let’s play on: Among 1Bs, 2nd in his era in HR, 3rd in RBI. 10th in BA. Great OBP and SLG, and a great Run producer. Most Strikeouts in his era, 450 more than the second highest total. So-so in October.
Just for fun, where is Thome all-time among 1Bs? Top ten in HR. Top 15 in RBI. Not even in the top 25 though in doubles. 34th best BA. Can’t break the top 40 in Hits. But 3rd all time in OBP and 4th in SLG. He’s a great slugger. One of the best in his era. But his era has quite a few. He’s no doubt one of the best sluggers in his era at his position and one of the best at his position all-time. But his Black ink hurts him and is HOFM hurts him. And with ManRam, we have some other marginal candidates who outrank him. I want to say yes, I really do. I like this guy. Marginal, but remember, it doesn’t matter. His 500 HR will get him there.

Kenny Lofton: a .300 hitter at the moment lifetime. 4 GG, and in every AS game for the last half of the 90s. Lead league in SB 5 times and has most SB among actives, 15th overall. However, his black ink ends there. Among all hitters: top ten in Runs, 17th in hits. 2nd in triples. 18th best BA. He’s a great. But just not great enough. I’m going to say marginal, leaning no. If it were just up to my bias, I’d put him in. The BBWA will never go for it. He hasn’t reached one of the big numbers to get in (he’ll likely never reach the magic hit number, etc.). Too bad though. Great player.

Enjoy....