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After Neoconservatism

LadyEagle

<b>Moderator</b> <img src =/israel.gif>
1) The point about an unchallenged world leader is about military supremacy. It's not about free trade.
S&N, the point I was making wasn't about free trade with China, but the free trade with China and all the money flowing there from us is enabling the Chinese to build up their military force big time, thus, to become the future #1 superpower in the world. It is well documented they are upgrading and building up their military. Anyway, sometimes I forget to define the points I'm trying to make on my posts. Hope that clarifies.
 

JGrubbs

New Member
Originally posted by Scott J:
</font><blockquote>quote:</font><hr />Originally posted by JGrubbs:
Even more reason to believe that trying to build a free Islamic state like we are doing in Iraq will only fail. Freedom and Islam can't co-exist.
Possibly correct. Of course this may be in the calculation. GWB et al may believe that if a free society can be established and people grow accustomed to having a say... that people will eventually turn from Islam.</font>[/QUOTE]Why then is Islam the fastest growing religion in the USA?
 

LadyEagle

<b>Moderator</b> <img src =/israel.gif>
Because of all the angry young black males and the Islamic recruitment in our jails. An angry religion appeals to those who have anger.
 

KenH

Well-Known Member
Originally posted by fromtheright:
The government in Iraq was defeated in war and the proper thing to do was to seek to facilitate their self-determination, just as WWII wasn't about imposing democracy on Germany or Japan, but their democratization was a required follow up to the overthrow of fascism.
ftr, we were attacked by Japan and Germany declared war on us in the aftermath. Iraq did not attack us. We attacked it.

By the way, wasn't Mr. Fukuyama one of your favorites a while back?
 

fromtheright

<img src =/2844.JPG>
No.

we were attacked by Japan and Germany declared war on us in the aftermath. Iraq did not attack us. We attacked it.

We attacked it for reported military reasons, though. The point remains: we defeated them militarily and the proper thing to do was to not leave a political vacuum.

No response to other points?
 

KenH

Well-Known Member
No, you made your points, ftr. And Mr. Fukuyama made his. I don't see anything to really sink my teeth into to debate at this point.
 

fromtheright

<img src =/2844.JPG>
Oh, I thought that one of the points of the article was to provoke discussion. Do you agree with everything Fukuyama said? Do you agree with everything else that I said about it? What's the point of posting an article for discussion if you aren't willing to discuss it? Or is it just part of the "Let's see how many pointless threads I can start today" campaign?
 

StraightAndNarrow

Active Member
Originally posted by Joseph_Botwinick:
Just to express my opinion that the non-interventionist, anti-neocon, rhetoric expressed in the article is wrong for America and immoral. That is all.

Joseph Botwinick
Neo-cons argue for American World supremacy by whatever means it takes. The thin veneer of claiming that we are spreading democracy has already been shown to be a lie. Do you actually believe a democracy will work in Iraq? Did you see the news tonight about war between the Shi'ites and Sunni's? The civil war is starting.
 

KenH

Well-Known Member
ftr,

1) Of course our troops are magnets. But putting them in harm's way in Iraq when the evidence was so flawed was a huge mistake. One that I hope and pray that we do not repeat regarding Iran.

2) I think the comparison of the Bush administration with Wilsonianism is spot on. I don't see how one cannot see the connection in light of President Bush's second inaugural address.

3) I don't think that Mr. Fukuyama is blaming Bush for Ahmadinejad's electoral win or the overwhelming electoral victory by Hamas. However, it is true that pushing for democracy can produce results that are potentially detrimental to U.S. interests. That is not to say that we should not encourage democracy but we must be prepared to live with results that we do not forsee and do not like.

4) Mr. Fukuyama is simply stating that we will eventually withdraw from Iraq(which we will - like it or not), and that when we do so we must give in to some isolationist tendencies in our nation and withdraw from interacting with the rest of the world.

5) President Bush had mentioned democratizing Iraq in the leadup to the war, but it was not emphasized like the "evidence" that Iraq had WMDs.

6) Even if we perceive that our use of military power is more "moral" than that of other countries it is foolish for us to expect other countries to regard it in that light.

7) North Korea is not a part of al Qaeda. Al Qaeda attacked us, North Korea has not. I use the North Korea question to point out the poor logic used by some people in being so concerned about a country such as Iran which doesn't have nuclear weapons(and which I don't believe are trying to develop them) while not talking about bombing or nuking or invading North Korea.

8) We will not defeat al Qaeda and the terrorist mindset totally through military means. In the long run, it is a matter of interaction with ordinary Muslims and showing them that we are not be feared but are quite willing to trade and have normal, robust international relations with them in the community of nations.

9) There will not be a world government. Rather we will see a proliferation of organizations such as NATO, OAS, etc., even NGOs, that will work together to solve various problems. The United Nations will not be the one stop place for international cooperation.

10) Germany and Japan had attacked the us. We conquered them and install democratic institutions so that they would not attack us, or other nations, again. Iraq had not attacked us. We did not need to invade Iraq. It was a preventive war of choice. And President Bush bears the responsibility for his choice.
 

KenH

Well-Known Member
Originally posted by StraightAndNarrow:
Did you see the news tonight about war between the Shi'ites and Sunni's?
More evidence of the poor planning by the Bush adminstration of what would happen once we removed Saddam Hussein from power. It's almost three years later and we still don't have the violence under control.

The Iraqis have a permanent government. What else do we need to do for them beyond all of the blood and treasure we have already spent for them? We need to start withdrawing our troops and be out of there substantially by the end of 2006 and be totally out by at least the end of 2007.
 

KenH

Well-Known Member
By the way, ftr, I got Fukuyama mixed up with John Yoo. It's Yoo that's one of your favorites, correct?
 

fromtheright

<img src =/2844.JPG>
Correct. Yes, I just love John Yoo (I almost said I love Yoo, but figured that would probably beg some clarification) :D
 

fromtheright

<img src =/2844.JPG>
Ken,

Thanks for the further response.

Of course our troops are magnets. But putting them in harm's way in Iraq when the evidence was so flawed was a huge mistake. One that I hope and pray that we do not repeat regarding Iran.

So if there was acceptable evidence of WMD it would not have been a mistake? Given the broad acceptance of that as fact prior to the war by a wide range of folks on "both sides of the aisle" this argument seems a non-starter.

I think the comparison of the Bush administration with Wilsonianism is spot on. I don't see how one cannot see the connection in light of President Bush's second inaugural address.

We'll just have to agree to disagree on that one. There was certainly none of the internationalism that so carried Wilson away.

I don't think that Mr. Fukuyama is blaming Bush for Ahmadinejad's electoral win or the overwhelming electoral victory by Hamas. However, it is true that pushing for democracy can produce results that are potentially detrimental to U.S. interests. That is not to say that we should not encourage democracy but we must be prepared to live with results that we do not forsee and do not like.

Looking back at Fukuyama's statement, you may be right about the first point.

Mr. Fukuyama is simply stating that we will eventually withdraw from Iraq(which we will - like it or not), and that when we do so we must give in to some isolationist tendencies in our nation and withdraw from interacting with the rest of the world.

I don't think the latter necessarily follows from the former, though it will certainly cause second thoughts, rightly or wrongly, about going to war when we feel our security is threatened. As to the latter, I think that as to "interaction", pulling out may necessitate such interaction, if for no other reason than to manage internal and international perceptions about the reason for the pullout and American strength.

President Bush had mentioned democratizing Iraq in the leadup to the war, but it was not emphasized like the "evidence" that Iraq had WMDs.

Democratization was not given as the justification under international law.

Even if we perceive that our use of military power is more "moral" than that of other countries it is foolish for us to expect other countries to regard it in that light.

Do you deny that our use of military power is more moral than that of China or Russia? Other countries are certainly judging our actions by their own views of morality. Why should we not do so? Are we to be guided by theirs or ours in determining what is the right thing to do? No, I'm not saying that is the only thing that gets factored into a calculation of action, but it must certainly be one of the factors.

North Korea is not a part of al Qaeda. Al Qaeda attacked us, North Korea has not. I use the North Korea question to point out the poor logic used by some people in being so concerned about a country such as Iran which doesn't have nuclear weapons(and which I don't believe are trying to develop them) while not talking about bombing or nuking or invading North Korea.

Ken, at what point do you look at your own information? You're the one who told us Iran has 300 underground sites. What in the world do you think they're doing with them? What in the world do you think China is sending them? Do you require a detailed explanation of the military threat that North Korea represents vs. that of Iran? You're comparing apples to oranges but still can't see the difference?

Germany and Japan had attacked the us. We conquered them and install democratic institutions so that they would not attack us, or other nations, again. Iraq had not attacked us. We did not need to invade Iraq. It was a preventive war of choice. And President Bush bears the responsibility for his choice.

As I said before, we attacked Iraq for reported military reasons, though. The point remains: we defeated them militarily and the proper thing to do was to not leave a political vacuum. Maybe I'm missing your point. What is it?

There will not be a world government. Rather we will see a proliferation of organizations such as NATO, OAS, etc., even NGOs, that will work together to solve various problems. The United Nations will not be the one stop place for international cooperation.

Of course I said nothing about world government. Who will oversee the agenda/actions of such organizations? And if that agenda runs counter to our own interests? What if such organizations are paralyzed as IAEA was with Iran, continually giving them "more time" and not going to the Security Council themselves. It is a pipedream to see such "international cooperation" as a panacea for rogue states threatening regional, international, or our own security. Such organizations tend to be paralyzed with the European sickness. We have often done poorly ourselves as with Clinton's "Agreed Framework" with North Korea; we shouldn't have our own actions controlled or threats to our own/alliles' security ignored by do-gooders thinking that tigers change their stripes--even as such tigers sharpen their claws.
 

fromtheright

<img src =/2844.JPG>
Ken,

a country such as Iran which doesn't have nuclear weapons(and which I don't believe are trying to develop them)

From "Iran's Nuclear Facilities: a Profile" (Center for Nonproliferation Studies), 1998 available in pdf format:

pg. 7

The facilities currently operating at the Nuclear Technology Center are not a direct proliferation
threat because they are safeguarded, because the research reactors can not produce significant
amounts of plutonium-bearing spent fuel, and because only minor amounts of heavy water and
HEU are present. However, Iranian attempts to buy a 30 MWt heavy water research reactor from
China in 1991 raised concerns.76 A deal to build the reactor at Isfahan, which would have been
capable of producing significant quantities of plutonium in its spent fuel, never materialized due
to technical and financial problems. Coupled with the rapid build-up of nuclear facilities at
Isfahan, the proposed reactor deal raised concerns that the center may be conducting research on
nuclear technology with military applications; a worry exacerbated by the fact that part of the
center is apparently built underground.77
The planned UF6 production plant fuels additional suspicion. There is no logical explanation for
Iran to build such a plant, the product from which is used to feed a uranium enrichment facility.
Iran does not have a declared uranium enrichment facility, nor does it require one for its civilian
nuclear program. The country’s lone commercial reactor, at Bushehr, will use nuclear fuel
imported from Russia. Due to the absence of commercial nuclear power plants and the high
investment costs associated with building nuclear facilities, the development of fuel cycle
facilities such as the UF6 plant suggests that Tehran may wish to use them for non-peaceful
purposes.
pg. 8

The National Iranian Steel Company (NISCO) in Isfahan, which produces steel for a Defense Industries Organization (DIO) munitions plant, could provide a number of nuclear-related metallurgical products.78 With help from Japan’s Nippon Steel, the Italian firm Danieli built four
specialty steel plants for NISCO that could have the capability to produce maraging steel and other corrosion-resistant alloys useful in a nuclear program and in the construction of ballistic missiles.79 The Isfahan Alloy Steel Complex, of which the plants are a part, officially opened on 20 August 1996, and has a capacity of 30,000 tons of alloy steel per year.80
Assessment:
The status of the NISCO plants is questionable. In 1996, British customs officials seized a
shipment of 55 kg of maraging steel, used to make uranium enrichment centrifuges as well as
components for missiles and other military hardware, that was bound from the United States to
Iran.81 If the plants are operable and can produce maraging steel, the Iranian government would be unlikely to waste valuable oversees procurement assets to acquire this high-strength alloy. Danieli’s participation in the project is of additional concern due to the firm’s past involvement in building a maraging steel plant for Iraq’s Taji uranium enrichment centrifuge production
pg. 9

Allegations of a secret uranium enrichment plant at Karaj are likely misinterpretations of the
Chinese-supplied calutron’s capabilities. Aside from the configuration of the ventilation system,
the desktop-sized machine has the wrong technical specification to be used in a uranium
enrichment program; it is used to produce stable isotopes of zinc for biological research.96 The
device is too small to enrich uranium to weapons grade, and Iranian scientists have experienced
problems operating it correctly, although some progress has been made.97 Furthermore, IAEA
inspectors visited the facility in 1992 and determined that its activities were consistent with
civilian nuclear research.98
Although the Karaj facility does not currently violate IAEA safeguards obligations and is not an
immediate proliferation threat, it does present some long-term concerns. Iranian technicians
could use the calutron and cyclotron to gain knowledge of electromagnetic isotope separation
(EMIS) technology. Such technology could be used to build or reverse-engineer larger versions
of the devices to clandestinely enrich uranium in another facility. However, an EMIS enrichment
plant would require large amounts of electricity, making it difficult to conceal.
Were Iran to try to domestically produce its own calutrons, it would need precision machining
facilities to make the large magnets that powerful calutrons require. Although Iran has little
indigenous capacity to build precision machine-tools, it imported high-capacity computernumerical-
control (CNC) lathes and vertical turning machines from the Czechoslovak firm
Strojimport in 1982-83. The Iranian state-owned heavy manufacturing firm Machine Sazi Arak
bought eight vertical turning and boring machines (three Model SKJ-12A, three Model SKJ-20A,
and two SKD-32A), and the Czech firm TST Kovosvit Semimovo Usti provided Machine Sazi Arak with at least five CNC drilling machines.99 Iran could acquire more machine-tools from turn-key factories that foreign firms are establishing in Iran, several of which are scheduled to be completed in the late 1990s. To augment this
capability, the Iranian minister for mines and metals signed a letter of intent on 5 December
1996, pledging Tehran’s interest in buying the ailing former East German machine-tool
manufacturer Sket Magdeburg.100 Such a move would be similar to Iraq’s former arrangement with British machine-tool maker Matrix Churchill, from which Baghdad procured machine-tools used in its weapons of mass destruction programs. Acquisitions from any of these suppliers, in
conjunction with the Czech-supplied CNC machines, would give Iran the capability to manufacture the necessary large magnets for a calutron.101
pg. 10

The Tehran Nuclear Research Center (TNRC), located at the University of Tehran and overseen
by the AEOI, is Iran’s primary open nuclear research facility. It is also the nucleus of many
secret Iranian atomic programs, including plutonium reprocessing, laser enrichment, and weapon design R&D efforts. The TNRC houses a safeguarded 5 MWt pool-type research reactor,
supplied by the United States in 1967, that can produce up to 600 g of plutonium per year in its
spent fuel.112 In 1987, the AEOI paid Argentina's Applied Research Institute (INVAP) $5.5 million to convert the reactor from using 93 percent enriched uranium fuel to burning 20 percent
enriched uranium fuel.113 The Argentine Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEA) has subsequently
supplied the reactor with 115.8 kg of safeguarded 20 percent enriched uranium fuel.114
pg. 11

Although there is a paucity of publicly available information on current nuclear weapon design
activities in Iran, such activities would likely involve personnel from the TNRC. Iran has
attempted to acquire equipment that could be used to fabricate weapon parts and assist in design
efforts. Tehran sought high-speed cameras and flash x-ray equipment which may have been
shipped to Iran through the U.K., and purchased an oscilloscope and pulse generators from a U.S. firm (see Sharif University).125 Such equipment could be used to measure and calibrate the shock wave of an implosion device. Also, Tehran may have procured a vacuum arc furnace (see Sharif University) and acquired precision machine-tools (see Karaj), which can be used to cast and machine weapon cores, respectively.
pg. 13

In addition to plutonium, nuclear weapons can be built using highly enriched uranium. Iran has
pursued both paths to the bomb, hoping that at least one of the programs would succeed.
pg. 14:

Tehran’s Sharif University of Technology is an important nuclear procurement front and R&D
center. Western intelligence officials allege that the Physics Research Center (PHRC) is the site of attempts to produce fissile material and the German intelligence agency Bundesnachrichtendienst
(BND) lists it as an Iranian procurement front.141 The PHRC is where Iran has tried to buy
or build uranium enrichment centrifuges since at least the early 1990s.

Following a strategy similar to Iraq’s and Pakistan’s nuclear development programs, Iran has
attempted to acquire a uranium enrichment capability by purchasing centrifuge components
piecemeal from Western European suppliers. Tehran established a network of front companies to
procure dual-use and prohibited items, with Sharif University as the intended destination.
 

KenH

Well-Known Member
I left out a word in this point. It is added in bold.

4) Mr. Fukuyama is simply stating that we will eventually withdraw from Iraq(which we will - like it or not), and that when we do so we must not give in to some isolationist tendencies in our nation and withdraw from interacting with the rest of the world.
 

KenH

Well-Known Member
ftr,

There's a lot of talk about what Iran's intentions are but no solid proof that it is trying to build a nuclear weapon. It's all conjecture and guesses. I know I am in a distinct minority on this board but until I see conclusive proof I will continue to give Iran the benefit of the doubt, especially since the intelligence(by the U.S. and others) was so off the mark in regards to Iraq.
 
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