America trails most of the rest of the developed world.

[Benjamin]

I wonder how many of these other "developed countries" have first class mobile hospital ships with 1,000 beds. We will have one docked in New York's harbor on Monday, stocked full of supplies..

 

[church mouse guy]

Whenever there is a chance to bash the US, leftists rush to the forefront. Me first!!!

The rich and the intellectuals want power over the common man. They hate giving the common man a Bill of Rights when they are so much smarter or so they think. Intellectuals always want dictatorships.

 

[JonC]

Death rate per cases.

We cannot know this yet. If you look at the mortality rate, the recovery rate, the rate of inflation, and the population and consider the time frame from the first case then the conclusion is playing with numbers.

 

[church mouse guy]

We cannot know this yet. If you look at the mortality rate, the recovery rate, the rate of inflation, and the population and consider the time frame from the first case then the conclusion is playing with numbers.

Do you have any information on estimates of unreported cases? The Wall Street Journal says that the estimated death rate is deeply flawed but the article is behind a paywall.

 

[JonC]

Do you have any information on estimates of unreported cases? The Wall Street Journal says that the estimated death rate is deeply flawed but the article is behind a paywall.

No. I was just thinking about the claim of the OP (that the U.S. is somehow doing a worse job than other developed countries). I do not know that we have the data to make a decision at this time (it will be a long time before we have enough hind sight to know).

The mortality rate of COVID-19 in the in the US it is 1.4%. That is bad.

But it is 4.9% in the UK, 10.2% in Italy, and 7.2% in Spain.

This is just number of deaths divided by cases. The US has 85000 reported cases and 1195 deaths. The UK, 11,658 cases and 578 deaths. Italy 80,589 cases and 8,215 deaths. Spain 47,610 cases and 3,434 deaths.

The US has a population of 327.2 million. The UK 66.44 million. Your chances of dying of COVID-19 in the UK is three times higher than in the US (.0003% in the US, .0009% in the UK).

Given the numbers, the claim of the OP just seems strange or at least subjective. I'm sure all countries have unreported cases.

 

[Rippon2]

Hi Tim, are you still in China? I lasted 5 years before they said I was too old.

I've been back in the USA since May of 2018. But I returned twice to China to retrieve my books, see my friends and get dental work.

The dental place I went seemed pretty clean and modern. But it was weird in some ways. As I was being drilled a guy (I think a friend of the dentist) wandered in talking and gawking.

That's a given.

 

[John of Japan]

That leaves Cuba, once the richest country in Latin America but now second only to North Korea in poverty. American communists have been saying for decades how good the Cuban system is. Bernie Sanders talks about Cuban literacy (it was always high) in that Castro boasted that Cuban prostitutes would be the most literate in the world. So Americans still believe that the Cuban medical system is world-class. Raul Castro has announced that Cuba and China have a cure for the Chinese virus. Cuban doctors are not trained in the USA and are sent worldwide in numbers while their paychecks are sent to Raul so they are not in it for the money.

I have a huge doubt that Cuba has much of a medical system. Communism stifles personal initiative. End of story.

Cuban doctors not being in it for the money means that they have no self interest in quality work. And they are sent all over the world by the communist dictator for his purposes, not theirs. I was in Japanese language school years ago with a Chinese artist forced to study in Japan by his government. He was not happy about it. Another Chinese there had fled the Chinese Cultural Revolution with his father to start a Chinese restaurant in Tokyo. The Cultural Revolution destroyed all progress in China for decades. That's what dictators do-stop progress.

 

[John of Japan]

I had stomach surgery in China. I was the only Western patient. The surgeon was excellent. But yes, the way the hospital was run was under par.

I had eye surgery in Hong Kong. Which was a minor deal. But I think the level of care is top-notch. I haven't been to Singapore, but I would think it is superior.

Bummer being the only "foreign devil" there. The unwanted attention is fierce.

 

[church mouse guy]

I have a huge doubt that Cuba has much of a medical system. Communism stifles personal initiative. End of story.

Cuban doctors not being in it for the money means that they have no self interest in quality work. And they are sent all over the world by the communist dictator for his purposes, not theirs. I was in Japanese language school years ago with a Chinese artist forced to study in Japan by his government. He was not happy about it. Another Chinese there had fled the Chinese Cultural Revolution with his father to start a Chinese restaurant in Tokyo. The Cultural Revolution destroyed all progress in China for decades. That's what dictators do-stop progress.

Well, of course, you are one hundred percent correct, John of Japan. The Cuban healthcare system is one of the worst in the world although they do run an international clinic for other communists. As for their doctors, your example of people forced to study in Japan is totally correct for what is happening to Cuban "doctors," some of whom probably have little more than very basic first aid training. They are in effect slaves of the Castro family. They have to leave their entire family behind in Cuba so if they defect they can never see their loved ones again. They get almost no money at all as the Castros keep what the other countries pay for the medial teams. The truth of the matter is that a guy with a very old car who runs a taxi service in Havana probably makes more money than anyone else in Cuba except for communist party officials.

The lies of the American Communists are never-ending. All of Latin America is probably below Japan in per capita income. They have gone left and tried to use the government to guarantee jobs and healthcare and it has backfired badly. Venezuela started out in the 1960s or so taking property and businesses away from foreigners and now they are taking property and businesses away from their own citizens. They have more oil than Saudi Arabia but they live in squalor thanks to socialism/communism. And so it goes throughout Latin America. Cuba has the pandemic and it is thought that a high-ranking old time communist with Castro in 1959 General Ramiro Valdes has died of the flu but that may be a rumor.

 

[church mouse guy]

I wish it were not so, but I think you are going to be disappointed. Deaths will always lag the case numbers. These deaths you are seeing today are from cases infected and possibly identified 1-2 weeks ago. So a better approximation of the confirmed death rate while things are happening is today’s deaths divided by cases from 2 weeks ago. Because the cases since then haven’t finished their disease yet and we don’t know if they will die or not.

Also hospitals are getting overwhelmed in NY and that seems to be what determines the death rate. If you don’t get hospitals overwhelmed, you can keep the death rate around or less than 1%. Once the hospitals get overwhelmed, you are looking at 3-5% minimum.

By tomorrow the US will have more confirmed cases than China. Yes both have lots more unconfirmed cases than reported. Where as almost all of China’s cases have recovered, the US cases are just starting their disease progression. And there are already 1000 confirmed deaths in the US.

I’m not stating these things because I want it to be this bad in the US. I want people to see how bad it is so they can take the necessary actions to keep it from getting worse where they are. The type of health system is irrelevant. People need to social distance and cities/regions/states need to close their borders and severely restrict travel. This can be done in any health system. That is what will save lives and keep the situation in NY from repeating itself around the country.

Of course, the type of healthcare system matters. Our private companies have stepped up to manufacture products in short supply on the double.

And as Crowder has pointed out, we have people of all nationalities and ages all over the this country. Also, as he said, we have about a hundred different sexes in this country, more than anywhere else in the world.

 

[Benjamin]

We cannot know this yet. If you look at the mortality rate, the recovery rate, the rate of inflation, and the population and consider the time frame from the first case then the conclusion is playing with numbers.

I'm looking at straight up overall confirmed cases and the reported death rates in countries, and that will give a good idea of how the individual health care systems are doing. Coronavirus Update (Live): 590,015 Cases and 26,939 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

For instance, I skipped China because you can't trust them but starting with Italy, the first to be majorly infected I closely watched and annualized the numbers - I watched as the death rate was increasing from 6% to 10% over 2 weeks by simply doing the math.

It is not perfect, but the numbers are there...

 

[JonC]

I'm looking at straight up overall confirmed cases and the reported death rates in countries, and that will give a good idea of how the individual health care systems are doing. Coronavirus Update (Live): 590,015 Cases and 26,939 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

For instance, I skipped China because you can't trust them but starting with Italy, the first to be majorly infected I closely watched and annualized the numbers - I watched as the death rate was increasing from 6% to 10% over 2 weeks by simply doing the math.

It is not perfect, but the numbers are there...

I think we should expect the infection numbers to increase in proportion to population.

The best I can do is consider ratios. But even here we need to factor in the prior age and health of the population. Also there are differences in precautions. The US may prolong the issue, perhaps have more cases, but ultimately save more lives. We just do not know yet.

Given current data odds are better in the US than the UK, Italy and Spain.... so far.

 

[Benjamin]

Of course, the type of healthcare system matters.

Yes, if a healthcare system where to become very successful and get people in and out quickly with a high cure rate in could have as much impact in saving people as trying to avoid the infection ion the first place, meanwhile more and more people would become immune.

 

[Benjamin]

Given current data odds are better in the US than the UK, Italy and Spain.... so far.

Yep, currently 1.5% death rate, much better than Italy and Spain but that is still way too high for my liking and being we are earlier into this I'm nervous about whether or not and how high it might climb. Lots of prayers over this...

 

[JonC]

Yep, currently 1.5% death rate, much better than Italy and Spain but that is still way too high for my liking and being we are earlier into this I'm nervous about whether or not and how high it might climb. Lots of prayers over this...

It is scary. World wide its a 22.5% recovery rate, 4.5% death rate (going off the number infected).

 

[Gold Dragon]

I'm looking at straight up overall confirmed cases and the reported death rates in countries, and that will give a good idea of how the individual health care systems are doing. Coronavirus Update (Live): 590,015 Cases and 26,939 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

For instance, I skipped China because you can't trust them but starting with Italy, the first to be majorly infected I closely watched and annualized the numbers - I watched as the death rate was increasing from 6% to 10% over 2 weeks by simply doing the math.

It is not perfect, but the numbers are there...

Just keep in mind data lags.

Testing doesn’t happen until patients are symptomatic and then there is the time to process. So usually confirmed cases are around 1 week after the actual infection time.

And then for all active cases we don’t know if they will die or live until the disease runs its course. Average infection to death time is around 3 weeks. So the deaths you are seeing now are from the infections that were detected around 2 weeks ago and transmitted a week before that.

 

[Benjamin]

We are currently testing 100,000 people a day, far more than any other nation, and still expanding the testing.. We are in the process of producing ventilators at such a rate that we have the intentions to help supply some of these other "developed countries".

 

[church mouse guy]

There must be many cases not in the official count so the percentages are totally useless. The numbers from the communist world are unreliable. For example, it is reported from Cuba that thug murderer Gen. Ramiro Valdes died of the virus but Raul Castro is withholding all information.

 

[Benjamin]

China has 3 times the population of us and yet ...supposedly, ...we have surpassed their number of infections in a short time.

The UK, France, Spain, and Italy all have a higher death rate than China's 4.0% and none are showing any signs of the amount of cases or the death rate slowing down.

I hear China has sent tests to other countries and they have been found to be defective with false negatives. Is that what they test with? If they are lying they will not be able to hide the deaths to come. If they are telling the truth then I am suspicious of how well they are handling this epidemic that they started.

We are going to have to meet this challenge with whatever it takes and I'm glad that I live in this country to do it.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Death rate per cases.

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research

This page has a pretty good comparison of CFR (case fatality rate) by country and also presents a good discussion about the limitations of this kind of analysis.

We should stress again that the CFR of a disease is not fixed. It varies by location, and typically changes over time. But, if we are careful to acknowledge its limitations, CFR can help us understand more about the severity of the disease, and how best to respond.

....

The paper shows that the CFR varies widely from country to country, from just 0.2% in Germany to 7.7% in Italy. But it adds that this does not tell us accurately the risk of death for an infected person in each country. We do not know how many cases are asymptomatic versus symptomatic, or whether the same criteria for testing are being applied. Without better and more standardised testing and recording of deaths, the real mortality rate is unknown.

But if we’re careful to acknowledge its limitations, CFR can help us determine what we know about the severity of the disease, and how to respond.