now that is interesting - last year when the USA came to a standstill - ie no one driving to work, "fun" shopping - ect - gas prices plunged even with a surplus.
What do you mean, "even with a surplus?" When there is little demand for something, the price falls. If there is a surplus, the price will fall and people who are involved in oil and gas production will become susceptible to layoffs.
But we will go with your thinking of a surplus---
It's not MY thinking,
it is well-known reality.
So when wiil that surplus be used up...
I don't know. Production has been low, so we are slowing using up recovered petroleum and natural gas reserves. Once the pandemic is brought under control, we can expect the rate of production to kick up again. The rising oil prices are likely brought on by confidence that the Biden Administration will be successful in relatively quick control of the pandemic, but all of that timing is bound up in a lot of variables, including the American public's commitment to wearing masks and social distancing.
...and prices will go south again?
I don't know what you mean, "go south."
If you mean, 'when will prices fall?', that will be when we hit another glut of oil and natural gas. If you mean, 'when will prices rise?' (more expensive for the end consumer - "go south"), then it depends. $60 a barrel has historically been a pretty good price for oil. Not too expensive for the consumer, but high enough to keep petroleum industry moving.
Remember, a lot of the cost of gasoline is in added tax.