Biophysicist Levitt says Corona is slowing down

[Scott Downey]

Michael Levitt Analysis: Corona Is Slowing Down | CTech - CTech
Interesting read, he predicts it will be sooner than later gone. Also predicts some significant numbers of persons are actually immune to this virus.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Michael Levitt Analysis: Corona Is Slowing Down | CTech - CTech
Interesting read, he predicts it will be sooner than later gone. Also predicts some significant numbers of persons are actually immune to this virus.

That is such a misleading title. Read the article. He never says that it is slowing down. This is what he does say about the US situation which is all true.

Currently, I am most worried about the U.S. It must isolate as many people as possible to buy time for preparations. Otherwise, it can end up in a situation where 20,000 infected people will descend on the nearest hospital at the same time and the healthcare system will collapse.

...

The more severe the defensive measures taken, the more they will buy time to prepare for needed treatment and develop a vaccine.

...

It will end when all those who are sick will only meet people they have already infected.

 

[rlvaughn]

Well, he does say it is slowing down, though he seems to be specifically speaking about China in that paragraph.

“But then it started dropping, and the number of new daily infections is now close to zero.” He compared it to interest rates again: “even if the interest rate keeps dropping, you still make money. The sum you invested does not lessen, it just grows more slowly. When discussing diseases, it frightens people a lot because they keep hearing about new cases every day. But the fact that the infection rate is slowing down means the end of the pandemic is near.”

 

[Gold Dragon]

Well, he does say it is slowing down, though he seems to be specifically speaking about China in that paragraph.

Yes the title should be that his analysis is Coronvirus slowing down in China.

But that would not generate clicks.

 

[Revmitchell]

Yes the title should be that his analysis is Coronvirus slowing down in China.

But that would not generate clicks.

Mind reading once again

 

[Gold Dragon]

Mind reading once again

Nope, it is just called reading.

 

[Roy]

It's a ray of hope. Like waiting for the eye of of the storm to pass where things can get back to normal. I hope the statistician is right in his assessment.

 

[Gold Dragon]

It's a ray of hope. Like waiting for the eye of of the storm to pass where things can get back to normal. I hope the statistician is right in his assessment.

The statistician is right in his assessment. His assessment is misrepresented by the article title. He is saying that coronavirus is slowing down in China but doing the opposite in the US.

I understand wanting to give hope. But giving false information and misrepresenting what people say is not the way to do that.

 

[HankD]

The statistician is right in his assessment. His assessment is misrepresented by the article title. He is saying that coronavirus is slowing down in China but doing the opposite in the US.

I understand wanting to give hope. But giving false information and misrepresenting what people say is not the way to do that.

I studied statistics at Boston U in my youth and from a purely statistical point of view this article clearly shows that the basic statistical model has an end with survivors. He does not publish his algorithms or formula models.

Even though he believes the pandemic will run its course, Levitt emphasizes his support of all the safety measures currently being taken and the need to adhere to them.
...
There are several reasons for this, according to Levitt. “In exponential growth models, you assume that new people can be infected every day, because you keep meeting new people. But, if you consider your own social circle, you basically meet the same people every day. You can meet new people on public transportation, for example; but even on the bus, after some time most passengers will either be infected or immune.

We should continue to follow the presidents guidelines, we are 1 week into them. IMO he will soon say - we don't want the cure to be worse than the disease

This means 1) new guide lines of re-entry into the workforce 2) Protection of those still at risk - elderly and 3) internment of the victims.

yes # 3 is somewhat crass but it is reality. in addition viral treatment drugs are now available, these have been shown to deeply impact the rate of mortality and anecdotally are claimed to shorten the contagion window.

The Italian infection model was possibly impacted by soccer game attendance.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

...
The Italian infection model was possibly impacted by soccer game attendance.

Also, it was reported that Italian leadership defiantly led people to the slaughter with an insane "Hug a Chinese" response to Trump's limiting movement from China to the US to slow the spread of this "Chinese virus." How much that defiant response contributed to their outbreak may be unknown, but that sort of thing should live in infamy.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

The statistician is right in his assessment. His assessment is misrepresented by the article title. He is saying that coronavirus is slowing down in China but doing the opposite in the US.

I understand wanting to give hope. But giving false information and misrepresenting what people say is not the way to do that.

Since we're criticizing the article, the statistician should be upbraided for misrepresenting China.

China did great work and managed to gain complete control of the virus, Levitt said.​

Ridiculous. They unleashed this on the world. They did not do a great job and deserve no credit. They owe far more than an apology to the entire world, and especially to the USA and specifically to Trump.

 

[Gold Dragon]

I studied statistics at Boston U in my youth and from a purely statistical point of view this article clearly shows that the basic statistical model has an end with survivors. He does not publish his algorithms or formula models.

There aren't a lot of actual stats in the article

Survivors? Of course there will be survivors. 80% of symptomatic cases recover without going to hospital. There are estimates (like in the Italian village of Vo where they tested everybody) that there may as high as 50% of all cases were asymptomatic. Both of those groups will develop immunity but we are not sure for how long. So no, this disease will not wipe out the human race and for a huge majority of people it will have very mild or no health implications.

The problem with covid19 is that first wave of exponential growth spreading through the world population that is not immune leading to health systems around the world getting overrun. The exponential growth causes a sudden influx of cases all at once and large numbers of deaths in the 20% that need to go to hospital. Most would normally survive if the health system were not overwhelmed all at once. That is the situation all of us are trying to avoid.

We should continue to follow the presidents guidelines, we are 1 week into them. IMO he will soon say - we don't want the cure to be worse than the disease

This means 1) new guide lines of re-entry into the workforce 2) Protection of those still at risk - elderly and 3) internment of the victims.

yes # 3 is somewhat crass but it is reality. in addition viral treatment drugs are now available, these have been shown to deeply impact the rate of mortality and anecdotally are claimed to shorten the contagion window.

15 days is a very short period of time for the growth portion of the curve. Hubei province has been in lockdown for almost 2 months and they now have no local cases and are opening things up again. They were likely having undetected cases for about a month before their shutdown. Italy's lockdowns have only been in effect for 3 weeks and their curves are starting to see some slight levellling out. I expect the peak to go on for about another month for them before their lockdowns are lifted.

The Italian infection model was possibly impacted by soccer game attendance.

The simliarity of Italy and Wuhan were their lack of preparedness and having the virus overwhelm their health systems. The rest of the world has the benefit of learning from their experience and are implementing massive social measures to try to avoid that situation repeating itself in their countries. Once that first wave passes, the rate of infection will be much lower and easier to manage. The goal is to keep that first wave from being too devastating.

If hydroxychloroquine is an effective therapy, that will go a long way towards reducing the size and duration of the peak for all countries. Here's hoping.

 

[Gold Dragon]

Since we're criticizing the article, the statistician should be upbraided for misrepresenting China.

China did great work and managed to gain complete control of the virus, Levitt said.​

Ridiculous. They unleashed this on the world. They did not do a great job and deserve no credit. They owe far more than an apology to the entire world, and especially to the USA and specifically to Trump.

Both statements can be true.

China is responsible for unleashing this virus on the world with their poor regulation of these animal wet markets with lots of wildlife, creating a perfect storm for viruses like SARS and now SARS-Cov2 (the virus that causes COVID19).

They were also responsible for the virus spreading more than it should initally have because they tried to suppress doctors sharing information about it and hide the extent of the outbreak until things were very advanced.

However once they admitted to the world they had a big problem on their hands, they have actually done a pretty reasonable job (compared to their previous performances in similar situations) of controlling the spread of the virus in their country, limiting their spread to other countries, sharing information, strategies, research and experience with Covid19. They even issued a formal apology to the doctors they wrongly punished.

China definitely has a lot of problems but that doesn't mean that we can't learn from their experience with managing these infections which is something they have a lot more experience with than we in the west do, largely through the fault of their own poor actions and policies. Of course we take what they officially say with a large grain of salt.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

Both statements can be true.

China is responsible for unleashing this virus on the world with their poor regulation of these animal wet markets with lots of wildlife, creating a perfect storm for viruses like SARS and now SARS-Cov2 (the virus that causes COVID19).

They were also responsible for the virus spreading more than it should initally have because they tried to suppress doctors sharing information about it and hide the extent of the outbreak until things were very advanced.

However once they admitted to the world they had a big problem on their hands, they have actually done a pretty reasonable job (compared to their previous performances in similar situations) of controlling the spread of the virus in their country, limiting their spread to other countries, sharing information, strategies, research and experience with Covid19. They even issued a formal apology to the doctors they wrongly punished.

China definitely has a lot of problems but that doesn't mean that we can't learn from their experience with managing these infections which is something they have a lot more experience with than we in the west do, largely through the fault of their own poor actions and policies. Of course we take what they officially say with a large grain of salt.

Nice list but still missed a ton of negatives regarding the Communist Chinese in this worldwide fiasco. Of course world governments should be constantly on guard against whatever comes out of Communist China instead of inviting it in, plaguing and enslaving their people. Such is the bizarre world we live in.

But comparing Communist China with Communist China? OK, for lying, deceiving, brutal Communists, bent on world domination, maybe they didn't do as bad as they could have—yet. However, considering they've threatened and tried to blame the US for their mess, there is no inclination here to pat 'em on the back. Nice try, but the headline was far less misleading.

 

[Benjamin]

"Biophysicist Levitt says Corona is slowing down"

"Pandemic is 'accelerating', WHO warns..."
Coronavirus pandemic is 'accelerating', WHO warns

...I don't hink we know yet.

 

[Benjamin]

They even issued a formal apology to the doctors they wrongly punished

I'm sure the one's they executed must appreciate that...

 

[Yeshua1]

I studied statistics at Boston U in my youth and from a purely statistical point of view this article clearly shows that the basic statistical model has an end with survivors. He does not publish his algorithms or formula models.



We should continue to follow the presidents guidelines, we are 1 week into them. IMO he will soon say - we don't want the cure to be worse than the disease

This means 1) new guide lines of re-entry into the workforce 2) Protection of those still at risk - elderly and 3) internment of the victims.

yes # 3 is somewhat crass but it is reality. in addition viral treatment drugs are now available, these have been shown to deeply impact the rate of mortality and anecdotally are claimed to shorten the contagion window.

The Italian infection model was possibly impacted by soccer game attendance.

Basically, all sports from high schools levels up, should be suspended until next season!

 

[Gold Dragon]

Nice list but still missed a ton of negatives regarding the Communist Chinese in this worldwide fiasco. Of course world governments should be constantly on guard against whatever comes out of Communist China instead of inviting it in, plaguing and enslaving their people. Such is the bizarre world we live in.

But comparing Communist China with Communist China? OK, for lying, deceiving, brutal Communists, bent on world domination, maybe they didn't do as bad as they could have—yet. However, considering they've threatened and tried to blame the US for their mess, there is no inclination here to pat 'em on the back. Nice try, but the headline was far less misleading.

I’m not saying that the good justifies the bad. Just that they can both be present at the same time. Yes the the political misinformation campaigns trying to insinuate blame on the US is despicable as well.

The bad behavior seems to be coming from the politicians while the good behavior comes from the researchers and medical people who are just trying to do their jobs. They are probably censored to some extent by the politicians so we need to read between the lines a bit.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

I’m not saying that the good justifies the bad. Just that they can both be present at the same time. Yes the the political misinformation campaigns trying to insinuate blame on the US is despicable as well.

The bad behavior seems to be coming from the politicians while the good behavior comes from the researchers and medical people who are just trying to do their jobs. They are probably censored to some extent by the politicians so we need to read between the lines a bit.

Just as in the world generally, I seriously doubt all their medical personnel are guiltless—some are even abortionists. But there are likely more good in that field than in their politics.

The power is wielded by the brutal Communist regime, which is not to be trusted, and this includes their internal apologies and their released data interpreted by a distant, foreign statistician.

If the Chinese Communist regime is made to pay for this worldwide fiasco, as it should be, their economy will tank for sure. That might be good news, if the Communist regime is thrown off for something much better.

 

[Benjamin]

If the Chinese Communist regime is made to pay for this worldwide fiasco, as it should be, their economy will tank for sure.

I don't imagine they will ever be writing out checks, but they may very well be made to pay because they will be on many people's sh.. ...err... doodoo list who will see the label, Made in China, and say no thanks! That is my attitude and I doubt I'm alone...not only in this country but around the world.