Uh excuse me but I have never denied the problem. Like this virus you have exaggerated my words to fit your predetermined "narrative:.
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CA Governor Predicts 50% Infection (20m) Yet China Holding at 80k???
- Thread starter Benjamin
- Start date
Uh excuse me but I have never denied the problem. Like this virus you have exaggerated my words to fit your predetermined "narrative:.
Gold Dragon
Well-Known Member
You would think an engineer would be able to base his predictions on some sort of mathematical data and not just throw out numbers on a whim like that. And you would think an engineer would carry responsibility for their predictions since engineer calculations often carry some level of liability.
Yes these numbers you are throwing out are not contracted out for your work, but your flippancy with numbers makes me question how you could be in this profession. No engineer I know would carelessly throw out numbers like that.
When China said lock down, the people did as told. Too many blooming idiots in the USA.
What? The Chinese complied only with guns pointed at them:
Would China's Draconian Coronavirus Lockdown Work Anywhere Else?
They must be the blooming idiots to have a jackboot government like that. Newsom's order is about toothless, and he knows it. I still doubt there will be 20M Californians infected, that would have over a million of them dying. Maybe.
Personally. I don't mind Trump's suggestions, because they're just suggestions. Even the left should worry about these kind of edicts, what's to stop Trump from declaring martial law and trying to suspend elections?
I think people will be paying a lot more attention in short order when they see the numbers going up. The fools will be shouted down.
That math, though technically accurate, doesn't allow for the effect of increased testing. I'm confident that cases are increasing in CA, also confident that they aren't doubling every 4 days. "Confirmed" (or maybe "presumptive"- not yet confirmed by CDC) cases may be doubling every 4 days, but I don't know how much of that doubling is due to more testing and how much is due to actual spread of the virus. I suspect the increasing test rate is responsible for much of the increased numbers.
Hard to know how accurate the Chinese numbers are as their media belongs to the government. However, that's less the case in S. Korea, and they've apparently blunted the epidemic more than other nations.
Gold Dragon
Well-Known Member
While testing is still very important at this time as a surveillance tool for decision making, the time for it to have a dramatic impact on doubling rate is unfortunately gone for a lot of areas in the US.
It is only effective for that purpose at the beginning when there are very few cases and small levels of community spread and you have the man power to track, isolate and heavily contact trace every case to delay the initial wave and buy you more time to avoid a total lockdown.
Once you get to a certain level of community spread, you have to just lock down those areas like Wuhan and the northern Italy region did to contain the virus. Unfortunately most of the covid 19 affected areas in the US are past that point already.
If you look at my Forbes link for exponential growth, a doubling time of 4 days is actually pretty good control. Many countries with much more aggressive testing than the US have current doubling times at 3 days at the moment. That is how infectious this virus is.
don't believe a word from the communist Chinese government.
Murky waters:
The Alarming Scope of the President's Emergency Powers
and now that idiot governor of Pennsylvania is going to claim to use the state police to enforce "our" rules:
Gov. Wolf: ‘We will use the state police to enforce the rules we put into place’
It's scary how much power these people have. I happen to like Trump but would have freaked out if Obama had done the same thing under these circumstances - never trust the government, never.
Murky waters:
The Alarming Scope of the President's Emergency Powers
and now that idiot governor of Pennsylvania is going to claim to use the state police to enforce "our" rules:
Gov. Wolf: ‘We will use the state police to enforce the rules we put into place’
It's scary how much power these people have. I happen to like Trump but would have freaked out if Obama had done the same thing under these circumstances - never trust the government, never.
There are 127 in SC, 137 in NC and about 320 or so in GA? Pretty low numbers
Chickenlittle
New Member
The reason China got the virus under control is because they are communist. The people knew they would be imprisoned or executed if they disobeyed their government. They immediately separated. Here in America kids rushed to the beaches when schools shut down. They continued church services in my state, even after our governor begged them to stop. In one city, two funerals were held with everyone hugging and shaking hands. Three churches attended those two funerals, and now people are dead and sick because of the arrogance and stupidity, Just like the Jesus cult church in South Korea that refused to obey orders from their government, hundreds of Koreans are now dead.
Gold Dragon
Well-Known Member
But of course you know how exponential curves work as someone who is an engineer.
Classify Growth Patterns For COVID-19 Data
In fact, I do know how they work
Thanks
Thanks
I see two things going for the Chinese,
#1 When they are told to separate they do it.
#2 It seems the majority of them are wearing masks. (Not quite sure why our experts aren't considering them more.)
Okay, and #3 They could just simply be lying and this will come out.
And it better not be #4 The rest of the Chinese people just happen to be immunized before it got to them.
#1 When they are told to separate they do it.
#2 It seems the majority of them are wearing masks. (Not quite sure why our experts aren't considering them more.)
Okay, and #3 They could just simply be lying and this will come out.
And it better not be #4 The rest of the Chinese people just happen to be immunized before it got to them.
I'm all for positive thinking but you seem to be in denial or are not looking at this informed and rationally.
Gold Dragon
Well-Known Member
If there was an unlimited supply of masks, then that would be the recommendation. As it is, there are not even enough masks for health care workers.
Surgical masks are not designed to keep things from coming in. They are desinged to keep the surgeon's coughing and sneezing from contaminating his/her surgical field. But yes it also keeps blood splatter and other fluids from getting in his nose and mouth. But viruses travelling in droplets will easily travel around the gaps on top and the sides of the surgical mask and most people tend to not wear the mask properly and touch their face more with a mask on. Surgical masks should be prioritized for people who are sick and coughing so they don't spread covid19 to others.
N95 masks that are designed for industrial/construction workers to prevent occupational dust inhalation and can also filter out viruses but need even more training to put on properly than surgical masks. They really should be reserved for heatlh care workers.
If there is an overabundance of masks, then yes, everyone should consider wearing one.
In my first line of work as a woodworker I've been wearing N95 masks for many years, I have a box full in the shop now and believe there could be an advantage in keeping viruses away from the nose and mouth but my concern is with putting it on and off and touching the face while doing it - which is also what I heard one of the doctors say. An awful lot of the Chinese must believe there is some benefit as well. In the same way sawdust is filtered out I believe air born viruses could be, but just like with saw dust you still get some of it coming through and wouldn't want a false sense of security causing people to get more up close , which is probably another problem.
All in all, I understand their is shortage right now but I'd put my money on that if they were widely available and passed out it would help slow the spread.
Gold Dragon
Well-Known Member
Georgia Department of Public Health COVID-19 Daily Status Report
Press Releases
Confirmed cases of COVID-19 jumps to 99 in Georgia
[URL="https://www.wsav.com/news/coronavirus/146-confirmed-covid-19-cases-now-in-georgia-dph-says/"]146 confirmed COVID-19 cases now in Georgia, Kemp gives update on state response efforts[/URL]
Mar 2 - 2
Mar 7 - 5
Mar 8 - 11
Mar 9 - 17
Mar 10 - 22
Mar 11 - 31
Mar 15 - 99, 1 death
Mar 17 - 146, 1 death
Mar 21 - 485, 14 deaths
Concerning the Chinese wearing masks I just read that what makes them the most effective is that they do a good job stopping asymptomatic transmission. That makes a lot of sense. We should hurry and make a huge supply of masks and make in mandatory to wear them in public.
