China is ready for a trade war with the US — and it could hurt Americans

[KenH]

' Ross also pointed out that the trade deficit with China — at a record $276 billion last year — is a result primarily of economic factors instead of policy issues.

"The Chinese have a very high savings rate, the Americans have a very low savings rate. We consume more than they do, we're going to have a trade deficit. Now, do you fix that through policy? Do you fix that through trade wars? Highly highly debatable." '

China is ready for a trade war with the US — and it could hurt Americans

 

[InTheLight]

' We consume more than they do, we're going to have a trade deficit.

Astonishingly, the world's largest, wealthiest economy that likes to consume inexpensive items is running a trade deficit with the world's second largest economy, (and fastest growing economy) featuring cheap labor and a rapidly growing middle class.

This isn't hard to figure out. But Trump has a picture in his mind of the US in the 1950's when we made cheap consumable products for ourselves. Dad worked in the steel factory for 40 years and retired with a pension.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[Saved-By-Grace]

Trump will bring the US to its knees by his stupid policies!

 

[Reynolds]

Astonishingly, the world's largest, wealthiest economy that likes to consume inexpensive items is running a trade deficit with the world's second largest economy, (and fastest growing economy) featuring cheap labor and a rapidly growing middle class.

This isn't hard to figure out. But Trump has a picture in his mind of the US in the 1950's when we made cheap consumable products for ourselves. Dad worked in the steel factory for 40 years and retired with a pension.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

We were a much better nation then.

 

[InTheLight]

We were a much better nation then.

Oh, I agree. But those days are gone. We're not going to be a manufacturer of consumer goods. Those products are for nations with inexpensive labor costs. We are going to manufacture high tech things and sophisticated equipment. Things like telecommunications equipment, aircraft, heavy equipment, automobiles, internet infrastructure, etc. People will have multiple jobs over their lifetimes. It's just the way it is nowadays.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

 

[carpro]

Trump will bring the US to its knees by his stupid policies!

When is he going to get started? So far it hasn't worked out the way you want it to.

The economy is doing quite well.

 

[Reynolds]

Oh, I agree. But those days are gone. We're not going to be a manufacturer of consumer goods. Those products are for nations with inexpensive labor costs. We are going to manufacture high tech things and sophisticated equipment. Things like telecommunications equipment, aircraft, heavy equipment, automobiles, internet infrastructure, etc. People will have multiple jobs over their lifetimes. It's just the way it is nowadays.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

You are assuming we can't make jets and make garden hoes. We can do both. We don't have to have all this cheap junk to fuel our consumer desires. Quality over quantity. Maybe we don't need $90 push lawn mowers that last a year and a half. Maybe we would be better off with $400 ones that last 15 years.

 

[Calminian]

Oh, I agree. But those days are gone.....

You sound like Obama now. He constantly told us this is as good as it gets. Trump said the opposite, and so far he's been right.

 

[Baptist Believer]

You are assuming we can't make jets and make garden hoes. We can do both. We don't have to have all this cheap junk to fuel our consumer desires. Quality over quantity. Maybe we don't need $90 push lawn mowers that last a year and a half. Maybe we would be better off with $400 ones that last 15 years.

There has actually been quite a resurgence in American manufacturing over the last five years, but not that many new jobs in manufacturing - especially blue collar jobs. How can both of those be true? Answer: Automation.

American manufacturers are finding it much cheaper to move labor-intensive manufacturing back to the United States by using robots instead of people to do repetitive and relatively complicated jobs. Whole factories, from assembly to shipping can be operated by a skeleton crew of people who barely lay hands on the product that is manufactured.

So when you hear about manufacturing jobs coming back to the United States, those jobs are primarily going to be for highly skilled operators overseeing and maintaining equipment that replaces dozens, if not hundreds, of workers.

 

[Saved-By-Grace]

When is he going to get started? So far it hasn't worked out the way you want it to.

The economy is doing quite well.

How long do you think the economy will "do well"? There is a huge world out there, who will punish the US with harsh penalties on goods they export, and thereby the economy will crash. Trump has begun a "war" he is bound to lose!

 

[carpro]

How long do you think the economy will "do well"? There is a huge world out there, who will punish the US with harsh penalties on goods they export, and thereby the economy will crash. Trump has begun a "war" he is bound to lose!

Who knows? But economically speaking, Trump has made few errors. I know that eats you up, but you'll just have to keep hoping for the worst. Maybe you'll get lucky.

 

[carpro]

Oh, I agree. But those days are gone. We're not going to be a manufacturer of consumer goods. Those products are for nations with inexpensive labor costs. We are going to manufacture high tech things and sophisticated equipment. Things like telecommunications equipment, aircraft, heavy equipment, automobiles, internet infrastructure, etc. People will have multiple jobs over their lifetimes. It's just the way it is nowadays.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

Trouble is we are already deep in a trade war with China. We have been for a very long time. The difference is it's been one sided.

Are you saying we shouldn't try to change that?

 

[InTheLight]

Trouble is we are already deep in a trade war with China. We have been for a very long time. The difference is it's been one sided.

Are you saying we shouldn't try to change that?

The most damaging thing about the "trade war" with China is that in order to gain access to their markets they insist on having assembly lines inside their borders. This allows them to steal intellectual property. For example, Boeing aircraft flies the shells of airplanes over to China and then they assemble the interiors. This allows them to go over the airplane and learn things that they otherwise wouldn't know.

Apple iPhones are assembled in China. I'm sure there are more examples.

The problem is not that we import more of their products than we export to them, the problem is that they're stealing our technology. We need to renegotiate some of these deals so that they can't gain proprietary knowledge.

The trade imbalance itself isn't really harming our economy. We're doing very well right now, thank you. We are a consuming nation, and they are a manufacturing nation. In order to catch up, they copy a lot of our products. It's this transfer of technology that's going to get us in the long run.



Sent from my Pixel 2 XL

 

[rsr]

The greatest threat is that the Chinese are stealing intellectual property, sometimes the old-fashioned way, sometimes by forcing American companies to hand it over in order to operate in China. Have you heard the administration address that?

A lot of the U.S.-China trade deficit is not really Chinese output at all. China imports parts from across Asia and then assembles the final product. It has a wage advantage compared to the Japanese, for example, and the expertise and economies of scale to make that a lucrative business, but as Chinese standards of living — and wages — rise, latter becomes far more important. And that's why China is building a worldwide network, sponsoring projects in Africa and South America to set up companies that can make money no matter what (and provide Chinese access to raw materials).

Take steel. A small percentage of American steel imports come directly from China. It's hard to unravel all the numbers, but I think it's safe to say that much more Chinese steel comes into the United States from other countries that originally imported it from China and then processed it into final products.

Raising tariffs is a blunt instrument. It doesn't take into account the complexity of global trade and (in its current iteration) does nothing to address the problem of theft of intellectual property.

 

[InTheLight]

The greatest threat is that the Chinese are stealing intellectual property, sometimes the old-fashioned way, sometimes by forcing American companies to hand it over in order to operate in China. Have you heard the administration address that?

Only obliquely. The connection between Trump's tariff policy and intellectual property theft has not been made clear.

Raising tariffs is a blunt instrument. It doesn't take into account the complexity of global trade and (in its current iteration) does nothing to address the problem of theft of intellectual property.

Yes, and the bothersome thing is that Trump insists on doing this negotiating out in public. Now I suppose a lot of this could have been done quietly behind the scenes and China had not relented so Trump is taking it public, but it sure is not helping our stock market to have him negotiating on Twitter.


Sent from my Pixel 2 XL

 

[rsr]

Sorry to duplicate. I was working on my response when you posted yours.

 

[carpro]

The problem is not that we import more of their products than we export to them, the problem is that they're stealing our technology. We need to renegotiate some of these deals so that they can't gain proprietary knowledge.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL

They won't renotiate anything unless we use some leverage.

 

[Reynolds]

There has actually been quite a resurgence in American manufacturing over the last five years, but not that many new jobs in manufacturing - especially blue collar jobs. How can both of those be true? Answer: Automation.

American manufacturers are finding it much cheaper to move labor-intensive manufacturing back to the United States by using robots instead of people to do repetitive and relatively complicated jobs. Whole factories, from assembly to shipping can be operated by a skeleton crew of people who barely lay hands on the product that is manufactured.

So when you hear about manufacturing jobs coming back to the United States, those jobs are primarily going to be for highly skilled operators overseeing and maintaining equipment that replaces dozens, if not hundreds, of workers.

Still better than "made in China" or "made in Vietnam."

 

[carpro]

There has actually been quite a resurgence in American manufacturing over the last five years, but not that many new jobs in manufacturing - especially blue collar jobs. How can both of those be true? Answer: Automation.

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Manufacturing Jobs up 22,000 in March; 281,000 Under Trump


The United States added 22,000 manufacturing jobs in March and employment in the manufacturing sector has now increased by 281,000 since December 2016, the last month before President Donald Trump took office.


The last time there were more manufacturing jobs in the United States than there were in March was in December 2008, when there were 12,850,000 manufacturing jobs.

 

[Baptist Believer]

Manufacturing Jobs up 22,000 in March; 281,000 Under Trump


The United States added 22,000 manufacturing jobs in March and employment in the manufacturing sector has now increased by 281,000 since December 2016, the last month before President Donald Trump took office.


The last time there were more manufacturing jobs in the United States than there were in March was in December 2008, when there were 12,850,000 manufacturing jobs.

Yes, manufacturing is booming. Our automation group has been extremely busy over the past three years designing and setting up assembly lines and equipment for manufacturers in the United States. Many of those have been coming online in the past year. It is good news, but not necessarily related to the President.