China - threat?

[elijah_lives]

No, I have never been to China (although I lived in Bangkok -- an amazing economic growth story in itself -- for two years). I base my assessment of China as a threat (especially to Taiwan) on the words and actions of the Chinese government. China is determined to regain control of Taiwan (peacefully if possible, militarily if necessary.) We have a defense alliance with Taiwan, and thus the hostile military posture of China towards Taiwan involves the United States. Being much closer logistically to Taiwan than we are, China has a tremendous advantage in any military confrontation over that island. The Chinese submarine force is the most likely vanguard, second only to missile platforms, and backed by a nuclear missile threat to our West Coast cities, Japan, Australia, and South Korea (our defense partners in that region)

The actual Chinese threat towards the United States is a mixture of economic and cyberspace warfare, in the short-term, and military conflict, in the long-term. Our government recognizes the former, as seen in the persistent questioning of Bernanke this week on our trade balance with China, and our military planners recognize the latter, as evidenced by the most recent NIE and war-fighting doctrine.

A net inflow of nearly $200 billion a year into China is huge -- half the size of our defense budget. We are funding their military buildup, while at the same time losing American jobs to them. While there are factions with the Chinese government that act as a check to their hegemonistic desires, there are also powerful military voices that will not give up their quest to regain Taiwan. We are on a collision force over this objective.

 

[elijah_lives]

Here's more information on the China/Iran energy deal, from the Washington Post (for all the skeptics, notice that WND published the article first):

China Rushes to Complete $100B Deal With Iran

 

[saturneptune]

from the right,
I am not much on conspriacy theories, but does the thought ever cross your mind that several countries are working in tangent with each other to do us and maybe Israel in, maybe China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and North Korea and some others that I am sure you could name, along with some with some of the South American countries. Maybe they just appear to want peace with us in varying degrees, maybe just an appearance of their being a difference with each other. A good example is China trying to convince North Korea to come to an agreement with us that we want. That seems so phoney. Would appreciate your thoughts.

 

[fromtheright]

SN,

I agree with you, I'm not much on conspiracy theories, either, certainly not of the kind poncho espouses but I agree with you that there is at least a strategy in place. IMO, it is that China seeks to give rogue states WMD in order to divert our attention and resources. I also suspect that any military action by China will be simultaneous with military action by Iran et al in the Middle East but there are obvious operational security concerns that any such coordination would risk. China is building its military apace, much of it done secretly as was recently discovered in the link which I think EL posted about the underground submarine base. I would be willing to bet that is just the tip of the iceberg, too, as China is well practiced on such tunneling. My suspicion is that their nuclear warhead arsenal is very underestimated due to such underground facilities.

I also share your suspicions re China's "restraint" of North Korea.

You raise a good point about South American countries. Hu Jintao, as you probably know, was on a tour of South American countries recently in which various economic agreements were made. IMO, that purpose is twofold: (1) to gain further access to oil, (2) which might eventually lead to such sources in wartime or tensions being choked off from us, and (3) part of an encircling operation. Obviously, those South American countries are not military threats to us, but by cementing ties with them, China seeks to reduce/further weaken support for us in this hemisphere. They already have some strategic locations in this hemisphere, with their position through the military-connected Hutchinson-Whampoa contracts at both ends of the Panama Canal and the huge shipping facility they seek to build (already building?) in the Bahamas (it may be Bermuda, not sure).


EL,

I disagree that there are factions checking Chinese hegemonism. Even Deng Xiao Ping accepted it. I'm not aware of any competitive factions. The Hu-Wen faction is no more restrained that Jiang Zemin was in that regard. I don't know if Zhao Ziyang opposed it but he was thoroughly disgraced within official circles after Tiananmen and his followers silenced. I agree 110% with the rest of your post.

 

[Gold Dragon]

I am Chinese, have many friends who grew up in Canada/US now living in China and I have been to China on a few occassions.

I believe the current course of mutual dependency between China and the west is the best course of action to diffuse any "threat" posed by China.

Some in China believe they can "use the West" for their own properity and drop their dependence on the west when the time is right. Just like the West feels it can drop China at any time.

But this idea of mutually "using" each other also creates dependencies that are detrimental to both parties should one choose to drop the dependency and in many ways is the best way to diffuse any threat from each other. At the same time, the two sides are culturally influencing each other, futher diffusing any threats or animosity between them.

 

[elijah_lives]

FTR,

I am not aware of any factions opposing Chinese hegemony, either. I was referring to the hopes of many capitalists in the West, that our growing economic interdependence would, in itself, result in such factions which would oppose Chinese hegemony. I defer to your excellent analysis.