China - threat?

No, I have never been to China (although I lived in Bangkok -- an amazing economic growth story in itself -- for two years). I base my assessment of China as a threat (especially to Taiwan) on the words and actions of the Chinese government. China is determined to regain control of Taiwan (peacefully if possible, militarily if necessary.) We have a defense alliance with Taiwan, and thus the hostile military posture of China towards Taiwan involves the United States. Being much closer logistically to Taiwan than we are, China has a tremendous advantage in any military confrontation over that island. The Chinese submarine force is the most likely vanguard, second only to missile platforms, and backed by a nuclear missile threat to our West Coast cities, Japan, Australia, and South Korea (our defense partners in that region)

The actual Chinese threat towards the United States is a mixture of economic and cyberspace warfare, in the short-term, and military conflict, in the long-term. Our government recognizes the former, as seen in the persistent questioning of Bernanke this week on our trade balance with China, and our military planners recognize the latter, as evidenced by the most recent NIE and war-fighting doctrine.

A net inflow of nearly $200 billion a year into China is huge -- half the size of our defense budget. We are funding their military buildup, while at the same time losing American jobs to them. While there are factions with the Chinese government that act as a check to their hegemonistic desires, there are also powerful military voices that will not give up their quest to regain Taiwan. We are on a collision force over this objective.

 

Here's more information on the China/Iran energy deal, from the Washington Post (for all the skeptics, notice that WND published the article first):

China Rushes to Complete $100B Deal With Iran

 

from the right,
I am not much on conspriacy theories, but does the thought ever cross your mind that several countries are working in tangent with each other to do us and maybe Israel in, maybe China, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and North Korea and some others that I am sure you could name, along with some with some of the South American countries. Maybe they just appear to want peace with us in varying degrees, maybe just an appearance of their being a difference with each other. A good example is China trying to convince North Korea to come to an agreement with us that we want. That seems so phoney. Would appreciate your thoughts.

 

I am Chinese, have many friends who grew up in Canada/US now living in China and I have been to China on a few occassions.

I believe the current course of mutual dependency between China and the west is the best course of action to diffuse any "threat" posed by China.

Some in China believe they can "use the West" for their own properity and drop their dependence on the west when the time is right. Just like the West feels it can drop China at any time.

But this idea of mutually "using" each other also creates dependencies that are detrimental to both parties should one choose to drop the dependency and in many ways is the best way to diffuse any threat from each other. At the same time, the two sides are culturally influencing each other, futher diffusing any threats or animosity between them.

 

FTR,

I am not aware of any factions opposing Chinese hegemony, either. I was referring to the hopes of many capitalists in the West, that our growing economic interdependence would, in itself, result in such factions which would oppose Chinese hegemony. I defer to your excellent analysis.