College Football News.com Bowl Projections

As for checking back, here are some of our college football prediction for last season:

Iowa has a good a chance of winning the NC as any other top notch school in our modern system. Michigan is a great school and has a good chance of winning it as well—PastorSBC1303, 4/17/05

i think ive said this before. GO VOLS! bigtime Tennessee fan. i feel the SEC comin to us this year...—J.A.B., 4/18/05

No there will not be surprise of this season or next season for PennState. PSU will having struggling again this eason because of Joe Paterno—DeafPosttrib, 4/19/05

I predict Michigan's record of 2005 season would be 10-2. Iowa's record would be 10-2, and possible split Big Ten title again for Mich & Iowa—DeafPosttrib, 4/19/05

As for LSU winning the BCS? I'm not going to say they will, but i'm pretty sure that they are going to win the SEC—bobbyd, 4/19/05

I personally think that 7 or 8 wins is about the best they [PennState] can do—TomVols, 8/10/05

Joe has stayed too long. If he were truly loyal to PSU, he would have gotten out of the way. They are at least 3 recruiting classes away from being truly competitive again—Scott J, 8/11/05

 

IF the Vols are 6-6, I think you're right.

My prediction is that they will either be very, very good or very bad. They have great talent but a poor showing in the first 4 games will leave their confidence shattered and the program in disarray.

However, I am hopeful having read a good bit about what Cutcliffe is doing. He is addressing everything I criticized Sanders for and Fulmer doesn't dare get in his way knowing that his job is on the line.

Enough to know he's a good back in a conference of very good backs. It isn't enough.

I have. They have one guy whose proven that he can play.

Maybe but I have read on them and this seems to be a general consensus.

I hope you are right. Can you keep me updated?

I really don't have anything against Arkansas and I like Nutt. I just don't think they're there yet. In a few weeks they'll have ample opportunity to prove me wrong.

 

Q. What is the difference between fantasy football and college bowl predictions in the middle of August?

A. Nothin'! :tongue3: :laugh: :laugh:

Ed

 

That's your answer to my assertion that they have one guy who has proven he can play? You list 3 true freshmen?

That just goes to prove my point.

They may set the world on fire but they have yet to show what they can do on the football field. I hope you aren't hinging your prediction of an 8-4 season on the play of 3 true Fr, are you?

Just for reference. UT, UF, Aub, LSU, UGA, USC, and Bama all have guys with similar skills and accolades out of HS that have experience and proven that they can play on the SEC level.

I'm glad you are optimistic. I won't be disappointed if Arkansas has a good season. But you aren't dealing with this objectively.

 

Wow! Neither Dick nor Mustain will start for Ark... it's Johnson. Worse yet for Dick, it sounds like he is #3 on the depth chart.

 

I hope you are right but would expect more of a 6-3 struggle in the mud if Arkansas is to pull it off.

I'd love for you to be right though. Can't stand USC... they even made me pull for Texas who I also dislike greatly.

 

Boy Scott J, you didn't learn anything from my showing statistics about how the O was as productive under Sanders as Cut, did you You really have drunk the Kool Aid vis-a-vis, anti-Sanders. I'm no Sanders apologist, just a guy who looks at the stats. I remember people saying the same things about Cut as they did about Randy. Now Cut is heralded as the savior.

Here in Knoxville, the reports from the scrimmages are not good. Dropped passes, poor decision making. Hardegree and Crompton are looking okay, and the defense is doing whatever it wants. Sounds like last year. I just hope our defense is better on 3rd down (esp 3rd and long) or else last year will be better than this year. I still can't figure out how we gave up 28 points to Vandy and let Brodie Croyle complete the long passes he did when he struggled against others to do the same.

 

The stats say that under Sanders the offense posted 400+ points only once in spite of playing on average more games per year. Even tossing out last year, avg ppg went down under Sanders. Granted I would say that having Clausen as QB for 4 of his years didn't necessarily help but it was still his offense and by all accounts it was an offense virtually devoid of discipline.

Not sure how that relates. Cut left on pretty good terms I'd say... a 13-0 present.

Beyond that, he seems to have improved.

That is very, very interesting. I have been reading everything I can find from the media on the 'net and watching the chat boards... some of which are frequented by guys who've seen alot of the practices and scrimmages and they report that dropped passes except by Asumnu have been much better... almost non-existent with the guys who actually look like they'll be playing.

Ainge had some low spots but most agree that he's improved a good bit. They put him under intense pressure in scrimmage and have worked out some of the decision making problems.

Hardegree tanked when they threw him up against 1st and 2nd team D players. Virtually every report says that Crompton is well ahead of expectations. Some are saying that he's pushed Ainge harder than expected. He performed well with both the 2nd and 1st team O's.

In one way it does... several people have said that Chavis thinks this D is better than last year. Time will tell but you almost have to defer to a guy who coached a top 5 defense without support from the offense.

You have to stretch to complain about a defense that gave up 205 points while its offense only scored 205 point and couldn't move the ball against air.

UF gave up 42 to them including the OT. So Car gave up 28 to them. They averaged 27 and this game occurred after the wheels came completely off for UT. In the 5 games prior to that one they were 1-4 losing heartbreakers against Bama and USC and then having a near complete 4th qtr collapse against ND.

The season was already over for many of them.

I must have missed those long passes... Croyle completed 17/27 for 190 and no scores in that game. Their two scoring drives were 63 and 34 yards setting up mid-range field goals. According to ESPN's play by play, his longest completion was 19 yards.

Again, when a D holds a team to 6 points and 257 yards of total offense, they have every right to expect to win.

I'm actually pretty optimistic about the Vols this year. We'll see how it goes.

 

My numbers from previous years are on my laptop. I remember John Pennington giving the stats that shows the so-called UT slump in the Sanders era is bogus. I'll try to find a link to the article..it was in the KNS a few weeks ago. KNS is hard to link to unless you're an online subscriber.

ESPN is incorrect. Last year, Brodie Croyle completed a 43 yard pass, I believe to set up the GW FG on 3rd and long. Check the stats at www.utsports.com. UT's D=Bottom three in tackles...bottom three in tackles for loss, bottom three in passes defended.

As far as Cut leaving on good terms, you must not have lived around here. The talk shows (I know, the legions of the miserable), the letters to the editor, etc., was glad to see him go. The blame was on him for UT not winning more NCs. They were glad Randy was OC. They were glad ANYONE was the OC but him.

You said you're reading internet reports from people at scrimmages/practices. Only credentialed media are allowed at those, and only for a select number of plays. That is now the norm around the SEC. Of course, thousands say they're at every practice and scrimmage and talk to Fulmer, Cut, and Chief all the time I'm going on the media reports, and that's all anyone has to go on. The media still claim (Based on Cut's own words) that Ainge is still looking at times like a deer-in-the-headlights. At times he still looks decent though. Some things are praiseworthy while Cut is clearly still frustrated.

You clearly hold the D harmless from last year, and I can understand that. But come on...comparing our D's performance to South Carolina....a defense that got blistered by Missouri hardly gives creedence. Florida's defense was not good last year.

By the way, I've heard radio callers justify our D giving up 28 to Vandy because of being "down" and "wheels off" and frustrated, whatever. If that's the case, Chavis should be fired and everyone on D should be shipped out. When you put the T on the side of your hat, you play every play and leave it on the field. If what you described happened, then Chavis is worse than Randy. Poor execution is one thing...giving up is another.

I know this...it doesn't matter anymore. 2006 is upon us and I'm ready. I just wonder how many games it will be before I hear people calling for Fulmer's head and/or Cutcliffe's head....given the legions of the miserable, probably not long if we lose a game or two early on.

 

BTW, John Adams predicted Sunday that we'll go to the Peach Bowl. We can't. It doesn't exist anymore. It's now the Chik-Fil-A Bowl :smilewinkgrin:

 

If it doesn't go well (as in a repeat of last year or worse which is still a possibility), they might rightly start calling for Fulmer's head. Maybe the game has passed him by?

I like Fulmer alot but maybe Gen Neyland's way of play needs to be adjusted a little?

The guys who post on those boards are apparently credentialled media. Others appear to be students who just walked in to a couple of scrimmages.

BTW, one 43 yard pass isn't a very big deal when you hold the other team to 2 FG's. Bama's defense is always highly touted and Rick Clausen! had a 35 yard pass play against them.

No. I wasn't around K'ville when Cut left. I'm sure his detractors were loudest. OTOH, I still like what I've heard and seen. Execution and discipline were IMO the biggest factors in UT's dismal season last year. If he fixes those things, I think they'll be good and maybe very good.

I haven't read specifically the deer in the headlights comments... but yes I've heard that Ainge has been a challenge. Most of the direct info I get is from KNS, Tennessean, Daily Times, and UTSports. Occasionally someone will link to an article on a tv station's website.

If you have recent info where Cut is still dissatisfied with Ainge, I'd be interested. What words are you referring to and when were they said?

I have heard on some of the fan sites that the coaches were very surprised how much Crompton had closed the gap. Others said that people were saying that Ainge didn't put in the film time an SEC QB should. Others said early on that he wasn't responding as well to Cutcliffe as he would like. Do you have anything specific or recent to support this?

Being from western NC, my heart leans toward Crompton though I hope they'll play whoever can help most. What are you hearing about Crompton?

I understand what you are saying and it makes a wonderful motivational speech but if you were on a relay team where you consistently got left with 50 yard deficits... you'd run your "best" but not any better than that. Anyone can lose hope and after that stretch with that offense, those 21 year olds could have understandably lost hope.

Besides that, Vandy had a pretty decent QB last year.

 

As far as my comments about ppg drop off under Sanders, here's the source:

http://michigan-football.com/ncaa/f/tennessee.htm

Very clear distinction.

 

I don't think the game has passed Fulmer by. Fulmer and Sanders took 2 true freshmen and won 10 games in 2004, winning the SEC east. Florida, Bama, and Georgia were beaten along the way (GA was #3, at the time I think, and we did that on the road). I just think we had some close games (4 SEC losses were by a total of 17 points) last year that didn't go our way. Take away a couple of mistakes here and there and UT is 9-2 easily, maybe 10-1. As for the poor execution, I've preached that gospel for 365 days, and most people rejected it to blame it all on Randy.

As for students walking into scrimmages, that may happen, but I've tried it and there are guards at the entrances to the fields.

As far as Cut's exact words, they've appeared in KNS. I think one such comment in particular was Saturday or Sunday's KNS. Again, linking is kinda tough to the KNS sites, and searching is a pain. I don't put a ton of stock in it. I don't think they want to build Ainge up.

One thing that Pennington and Mike Griffith have both said and written more than once - if you run film of this year's scrimmages and told them that it was of last year, they would believe you...that they can't tell the difference. Only difference is Cut has them huddling differently and getting to the line of scrimmage quicker. Not helpful, if all you're going to do is make a mistake. Did you hear about Ainge having to call a timeout on the first play of the first scrimmage?

You asked what I'm hearing about Crompton. I may have shared that with you earlier - simply that he is the most improved of the three QBs. The media is being careful not to "cause" a QB controversy, allegedly. Crompton's arm is very good, but some question his head at this point. But, he's just a RS Frosh. He'll learn, if that's the case. I think Ainge deserves some lattitude. I hope 2005 was the fluke, not 2004. I hope 2004 and the recruiting classes that make up our team are not fool's gold. It does happen though.

Vandy had a great QB last year, but that's all :smilewinkgrin:

By the way, that link you posted is dead. I don't like Michigan, so I wouldn't trust their stats anyway :smilewinkgrin:

 

The link worked for me just a little while ago. You should be able to find it with a search engine by typing Michigan football records.

They went to the time to record every major college teams records, opponents, and point totals for like 50 years. I don't like Michigan either but its a convenient resource. You might try taking the last part of the address off too.

Yeah I heard about all of Ainge's problems in the first scrimmage and about his progressive improvement afterwards. I guess we'll see.

 

I hope there's been more improvement than the media has portrayed. We'll find out 5:30 Saturday night. Prediction?

 

I think Sporting News Radio had an excellent point last night. The BCS system will not be about which teams are the best in the nation, it will be about which teams in the system win their conference and finish the season undefeated. Here's the reasoning---

It is highly unlikely that an SEC team, no matter how good the whole conference seems to be, will go undefeated. Actually, when schedule strength and team strength are considered honestly (by someone outside the fan base of the deep South!) Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Georgia are clearly the cream of the crop, with Florida and Tennessee as also rans, and the rest of the conference is, well, terrible to worse than terrible.

It is also unlikely that a Big-12 team, including Texas, will go undefeated. Texas may have the best chance, but they're not as good a team as they were last year, and they must play Ohio State again.

The chances that a Big 10 team will go undefeated are not good either, because of the evenly matched teams at the top, who all have a tendency to knock each other off.

In the ACC, there are several evenly matched teams that will do very well, and win a lot of games, but who will eventually knock each other off, and so, will likely not end up with an unbeaten team. Miami, VaTech, Florida State, each beat on each other, and someone like NC State, Clemson or North Carolina can pull an upset.

The Pac-10 has USC, but the Trojans are weaker this year than last, and have some tough road games at places where they don't always do well. They are probably, among the major conferences though, the team most likely to finish unbeaten. So, where might the other one be?

Mountain West, WAC, MAC, and CUSA are not going to get high enough ratings to put a team in the national championship, though one or two teams might make a BCS bowl.

That leaves the Big East. Yes, thank you Virginia Tech, Miami and Boston College, for joining the ACC. You have left a major hole open for a Big East team to get into the BCS national title game. This is the conference where the other major undefeated conference champion will come from. It will most likely be West Virginia. Yes, the Mountaineers will be one of the two teams to play for the National Championship in Glendale, Arizona, in fabulous new Glendale Stadium.

Why, you say? Look at their schedule! There is no one on it. The Mountaineers are about to have their single best team in at least a decade, coming off that great victory over Georgia last year, and there isn't a team on their schedule that will be able to beat them. Not one. There is an outside chance that Louisville could knock them off, and perhaps a one in eight shot for Maryland, but that's it. And the other depressing thought is that if Louisville does manage to pull off the upset, they are likely to be the other team in the BCS national championship because they are facing the same kind of schedule in the same conference.

So, the bottom line question will be, can West Virginia beat USC for the national championship? Look what they did to mighty Georgia last year. Can a team have a mediocre schedule, go undefeated and get up for a big game. I'm guessing they can. So, I am going along with Sporting News Radio, and picking the West Virginia Mountaineers to win it all.

Surprise team of the year? Arizona. Mike Stoops third year, two outstanding recruiting seasons (top 5 or better), hunger, strong fan base, weak conference this year, USC at home (they don't do well in Tucson), and Willie Tuitama, Sophomore QB. Wildcats go 11-1 and get the Rose Bowl.

 

Without regard to whether UF and UT are "also rans", on what possible basis could any rational person put Alabama as "clearly the cream of the crop"?

They had one good year last year in which they won several close games. In the previous two years they were 4-9 and 6-6. The year before that they went 10-3. In fact, looking back over the past 9 seasons they have an established pattern- Losing season, mediocre season, 10 win season, and repeat. Moreover, they aren't loading their schedule up with quality OOC games. UT and UF play much better out of conf schedules that Bama and win more games. Their strength of schedule doesn't even compare.

 

If Ainge does nothing stupid or else gets pulled once and for all if he does then I think UT will win by 8+.

If he makes alot of mistakes early, it could get ugly the other way. I'm about 65%-70% sure of my prediction though.

I've read most of what I can find on both teams. Cal may be great. But the basis for all the hype they've received is players who performed against an extremely weak schedule last year. I'm not knocking the Pac10 on this one but specifically Cal. Their OOC games were against Sacramento St, New Mex St, and Illinois. They had 4 wins between them. Their very hard fought bowl victory came against a mediocre BYU team that finished 6-6.

I think as Vol fans we'll know alot about the season after this game. If UT wins then it looks good. If they lose or even if they win 'bad', the season could be another long one.

Of course if they lose, Ainge could be replaced then it comes down to how fast you can get a RS Fr with talent ready to win big games in the SEC.