College Football News.com Bowl Projections

BTW, if you wanted to pick a team with the inside track to the BCS championship, I think you definitely start with WVU because of their schedule. The only teams that should give them trouble are L'ville and maybe Maryland. They'd have to choke for any of the others to beat them. Pitt represents a potential obstacle this year too.

 

You're kidding, right? Florida has the toughest schedule in the nation according to the Sporting News. Tennessee is typically in the top 5-10. Tennessee never plays I-AA schools. Never. Check the schedules of the "cream of the crop" and you'll find the opposite. Tennessee is praised by knowledgable fans and experts for playing solid schedules.

Scott, my prediction on UT/Cal is I think Cal is the better team and will win by 3. If UT wins, it will be a very good win. Cal has been picked by Lee Corso to win the national title. Don't laugh. They have the second best RB in the nation, Cal has a good D-line, and a good coaching staff. It all depends on how Cal adapts to the spread option. I think UT can win if it plays well. As of ten minutes ago, Cal had yet to name a starting QB for the Tenn game, for what it's worth.

 

Cal may be every bit as good as their preseason hype but before you bite into that sandwich consider...

The combined record of the teams they beat last year was 22-66. They only played 3 winning schools and lost to all of them plus a 5-6 Oregon St team. Like UT, they only had one game they lost badly, USC. Unlike UT's loss to ND, Cal was never really in that game.

The teams they beat averaged scoring 23 ppg and gave up 32 ppg. Overall, the teams they played averaged giving up over 30 even when you include USC.

UT played 5 schools who played in January bowl games. Cal played 3 teams with a winning record and got stomped by the only January bowl team they played... albeit a pretty good one.

What I am getting at is that if they had swapped schedules, I doubt Cal would have won 5 games last year... and UT probably would have won 9 if not more.

Again, they may be as good as advertised... but you can't legitimately base that off what they did last year because of their terribly weak schedule.

 

BTW, Cal's QB Longshore is having back problems. The guy who finished the season for them last year and did a nice job is suspended for the UT game.

That leaves Joe Ayoob. He may have been worse than Ainge when you factor in competition. He went 1-10 or something against Sacramento St... and was finally benched before the last couple of games. Overall he completed 49% of his passes and apparently made some boneheaded plays of his own.... that's partly what ramped the rushing stats up so much. They couldn't throw it effectively. The main difference between them and UT is that UT had to try to run for lack of a passing game against great defenses. Cal ran through porous defenses because they couldn't pass it.

He might have improved though since he is the guy who is supposed to be competing most closely with Longshore.

 

I wonder how Cal's QB situation has played out in the media out there? I think they have as big a question mark there as we do. I'd love to have Lynch, though

I agree with you about WVU, by the way. Lot of people are on their bandwagon. Who knows, maybe the Sugar Bowl was their one shot, but given they don't have the strongest conference in the world to get through, they certainly have a good a shot as any.

 

The Big East got into the BCS mix when Miami and Virginia Tech were its premier members. The contract goes through 2012, I believe. I don't think they deliberately softened their non-conference schedule. Maryland is usually tough and so is Marshall, and both of those are rivarly games. They probably could have taken a shot at Penn State or even Virginia Tech this year for a more legitimate claim, but an undefeated WVU team will likely get one of the two BCS championship bids, and could be the only undefeated team in the country by the end of the season.

The Florida schools are overrated. Florida is 8-4 at best, considering that schedule, and I'd be willing to wager that one of their losses this year will be South Carolina. The ACC, apart from Miami and VaTech, is puffed up by the eastern press. Florida State, as always, is solid, but not national championship material. The SEC will knock each other around. Why Alabama? Look at their schedule. They're at least as good as they were last year and who do they play? Shula gets them ready for the two toughest games they have, LSU and Auburn. I see Alabama as one of the teams in the SEC championship. I'll go out on a limb and say South Carolina will be the other.

The PAC-10 is about one team short of having five solid bowl competitors. USC is the likely winner, but I don't see them finishing undefeated. Next to them, Oregon is really the next best team, with Arizona State and Cal pretty evenly matched. USC has some tough road trips, but ultimately, I think they have the best shot at being the other BCS team.

 

Cal has named Longshore as their starting QB, but both he and Ayoob are expected to play, according to Jeff Tedford after Cal's practice last night. You can see the story at www.govols.com, that is, if you're a member. I hate newspaper sites that make you register.

 

For good or bad, they don't have the passionate fan following that UT has. The media has been pretty ho-hum. A disappointment at Cal is nowhere near a disappointment at UT on the Richter scale.

 

Kentucky is much approved this year and will also sneak into a bowl.

Go Wildcats!

 

Hardly. It is a very good conference. BC, VT, Clem, FSU, and Miami are all legit powers this year. I wouldn't at all be surprised to see GT knock off ND. If GT could play with any consistency, they'd be top 10 every year.

What do you mean? Good thing or bad?

Was your comment directed toward this year or over time?

Either way, UF and UT are not also rans and Bama is certainly not "cream of the crop."

UT at K'ville, UF at G'ville, Auburn, Ole Miss, at LSU, and at Arkansas... I believe they will lose all of these games giving them six losses on the season. I don't think they'll be any better than 8-4 and 4-4 in conference.

You are right about one aspect of "look at their schedule". They loaded their OOC with gimmee's: Duke, FIU, Hawaii, UL Monroe. The only one out of that group that can even sniff a win against a decent SEC team is Hawaii.

Providence may smile on these teams... but it won't be their superior ability that will get them to Atlanta by any stretch.

The west comes down to Aub and LSU. I think LSU is the better team from top to bottom. Spurrier will still have a little magic... but he won't have the players to win the east without some fairly incredible breaks his way. The east comes down to those same old 3. I think the most likely candidates are UT and UGA.

Depends on your definition of solid. I won't repeat Cal's actual performance during the Tedford era. While impressive that anyone can climb out of the cellar at Berkley... he's done it against fairly weak competition. His one win against USC was a fluke. He will need 2 more recruiting years like last year to really become competitive with USC and Oregon... and I don't think Tedford will stay that long. He will bale out when he starts seeing signs his stock is about to drop.

S/B undefeated in conference. They're still much more talented than any other team out there. I think they'll lose to either ND or Nebraska. A win by Arkansas against them would be only slightly more miraculous than an SEC championship game this year featuring So Car and Bama.

Dead on right. But I would half expect either Arizona or WSU to finish fourth over ASU or Cal.

 

Kentucky very well could sneak into a bowl, especially since it is an SEC school and has opportunity to pull off upsets of major schools. They will have to beat Tennessee and possibly another semi-biggie (Georgia or Florida) to do it, though.

I'm thinking that South Carolina is going to be the surprise team in the SEC this year.

As far as the others go, it will be hit and miss for Ole Miss, they'll have to knock off a ranked team and win at least 7 to get a bowl bid. Arkansas, IMHO, is going to win three, maybe four games.

As far as the top two in the BCS, its all about schedule and conference. If WVU has an inside track, USC is the closest to having it among the other major conferences. They might not be one of the best five teams in the country, but they have a favorable schedule in a conference that has six teams in rebuilding mode. If it isn't USC, then it will be either Texas or Notre Dame.

 

Ken, you think South Carolina is quite good and Tennessee is soft?

Have you had a recent head trauma? :smilewinkgrin: Granted, I'll give you last year, but come on.....

Arkansas should be better than last year. They should only lose to USC by 3 touchdowns. :smilewinkgrin:

 

That is a pretty amazing statement. Arkansas hasn't had a 10 win season since 89... when they played in the old SWC. In that same span, UT has won 10+ games nine times and a national championship. UT has won 10+ 3 of the last 5 years. Arkansas has lost 5 or more 4 of the last 5 years. They have had a losing record the last two years... The Vols had their first losing record since 1988 last year... that's right, a year longer than the last 10 win season for Arkansas.

I think Arkansas is much improved and think they'll win:

Utah St
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Southeast Mo St
La. Monroe
Miss State
and either So Car or Ole Miss

and lose:

SC
Auburn
UT
LSU
and either So Car or Ole Miss

7-5 with an outside shot at 8-4 if things fall right against both Ole Miss and So Car.

 

Maybe... but I will certainly remember you said so if UT rebounds as I am optimistic they will.

I will hope that along with you... but since we are dealing in the realm of reality- pray for rain.

I hope he is ready to play. OTOH for the kid's sake, I hope they don't play him before he's ready.