COVID-19: We Are Making Decisions Without Reliable Data

[Aaron]

" If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams."

In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data

 

[InTheLight]

The article is 2 weeks old and argues,

"The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed."

Meanwhile, President Trump just announced YESTERDAY that over 1 million people have been tested. Also, yesterday a new test that can give results in 15 minutes or less was approved by the FDA which should cause testing to skyrocket. I suppose if you think having over a million people tested and a new method for testing in under 15 minutes is "limited testing" then you should agree with the article.

 

[JonC]

What we are doing is making decisions without complete data, i.e., the data that we will have hindsight.

As we go forward I expect that we will see things that could have been done better and things that should have done better. Hopefully we will also see things that were done well. Perhaps we need to be careful about being overly critical of the decisions made with information at a given point in time while evaluating past decisions on the overall impact of the pandemic as more information/ data becomes available.

That is, of course, if in our political landscape politicians can refrain from capitalizing on whatever forced narratives they believe will help their political agendas.

 

[Revmitchell]

What we are doing is making decisions without complete data, i.e., the data that we will have hindsight.

As we go forward I expect that we will see things that could have been done better and things that should have done better. Hopefully we will also see things that were done well. Perhaps we need to be careful about being overly critical of the decisions made with information at a given point in time while evaluating past decisions on the overall impact of the pandemic as more information/ data becomes available.

That is, of course, if in our political landscape politicians can refrain from capitalizing on whatever forced narratives they believe will help their political agendas.

You should see the TV ads being played in our area with craftily edited quotes (about this virus) from Trump to make him look bad

 

[Reynolds]

" If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams."

In the coronavirus pandemic, we're making decisions without reliable data

As good as that sounds, Its simply not true. When is the last time seasonal flu overwhelmed hospitals and emergency rooms? I live out in the sticks and they re-opened our hospital that has been closed for over 10 years. Its taking overflow from the city hospitals 50 miles away.
Seasonal flu does not do that bro.

 

[Revmitchell]

The only thing that makes Covid-19 more dangerous is that we do not have a vaccine for it yet. More than 50,000 people die each year from influenza. There are hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations from influenza every year. One can bicker over which is more dangerous but the only thing that makes covid a bigger concern is the lack of a vaccine.

 

[Use of Time]

The only thing that makes Covid-19 more dangerous is that we do not have a vaccine for it yet. More than 50,000 people die each year from influenza. There are hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations from influenza every year. One can bicker over which is more dangerous but the only thing that makes covid a bigger concern is the lack of a vaccine.

Its hard to imagine on March 31, after all we know, there are still people clinging to this tired and willfully ignorant opinion.

 

[InTheLight]

The only thing that makes Covid-19 more dangerous is that we do not have a vaccine for it yet. More than 50,000 people die each year from influenza. There are hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations from influenza every year. One can bicker over which is more dangerous but the only thing that makes covid a bigger concern is the lack of a vaccine.

No, it's the fact that it spreads much faster than flu, people can spread it for up to 14 days while showing no symptoms, the death rate is higher, it can cause permanent lung damage, and it overwhelms hospital beds.

BTW, on President Trump's daily briefing he just showed graphs estimating the number of US deaths will be 100,000 to 240,000. That's much worse than any normal flu season and at least twice as much as your stated 50,000 people a year dying from flu. Furthermore, the number of deaths had we not done anything were projected at 2.4 million. When's the last time flu season killed over 2 million Americans?

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[Revmitchell]

No, it's the fact that it spreads much faster than flu, people can spread it for up to 14 days while showing no symptoms, the death rate is higher, it can cause permanent lung damage, and it overwhelms hospital beds.

BTW, on President Trump's daily briefing he just showed graphs estimating the number of US deaths will be 100,000 to 240,000. That's much worse than any normal flu season and at least twice as much as your stated 50,000 people a year dying from flu. Furthermore, the number of deaths had we not done anything were projected at 2.4 million. When's the last time flu season killed over 2 million Americans?

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Sigh, again. No vaccine. And theses projections are based on computer models. How did that work out for all the climate change scare tactics.

 

[Use of Time]

Sigh, again. No vaccine. And theses projections are based on computer models. How did that work out for all the climate change scare tactics.

Hey guys Rev is sighing because his superior intellect in the field of medicine is tired of explaining to us lamens...and Dr. Fauci how things really are.

Hey that’s right. There is no vaccine. Which is yet another reason this is not like the flu. You are helping...kind of.

 

[InTheLight]

Sigh, again. No vaccine. And theses projections are based on computer models. How did that work out for all the climate change scare tactics.

Well, sure, climate change projections and contagion projections are so, so similar. Why didn't I think of that? One is modeled based totally on the theoretical with scant data and the other is modeled on over a century of data and human observation.

No vaccine. Duh. That's why it's called a NOVEL coronavirus. It's new. Never been seen before.

Supposing we had a vaccine tomorrow. I bet it would still take a month to get the majority of Americans inoculated. And there would be millions that wouldn't take it.

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[Revmitchell]

And there would be millions that wouldn't take it.

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Oh I doubt it. All the doom and gloomers have the public at large sufficiently scared. Shoot, they are even willing to give up rights because of it.

 

[Use of Time]

Oh I doubt it. All the doom and gloomers have the public at large sufficiently scared. Shoot, they are even willing to give up rights because of it.

Just stop it.

 

[Reynolds]

Oh I doubt it. All the doom and gloomers have the public at large sufficiently scared. Shoot, they are even willing to give up rights because of it.

What rights are we giving up?

 

[Reynolds]

Well, sure, climate change projections and contagion projections are so, so similar. Why didn't I think of that? One is modeled based totally on the theoretical with scant data and the other is modeled on over a century of data and human observation.

No vaccine. Duh. That's why it's called a NOVEL coronavirus. It's new. Never been seen before.

Supposing we had a vaccine tomorrow. I bet it would still take a month to get the majority of Americans inoculated. And there would be millions that wouldn't take it.

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I wouldnt take it.

 

[Reynolds]

Hey guys Rev is sighing because his superior intellect in the field of medicine is tired of explaining to us lamens...and Dr. Fauci how things really are.

Hey that’s right. There is no vaccine. Which is yet another reason this is not like the flu. You are helping...kind of.

And the flu shot is usually worthless as (cant say it on here).

 

[InTheLight]

What rights are we giving up?

The right to go to the mall for an Orange Julius.

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[Reynolds]

The right to go to the mall for an Orange Julius.

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That's not an absolute right.

 

[InTheLight]

That's not an absolute right.

I was being facetious.

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[Reynolds]

I was being facetious.

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Thanks. My sarcasm meter broke yesterday.