Featured Flight MH370 -Let's speculate?

You're no fun Gina. :smilewinkgrin:

 

I've learned a ton of stuff from this 29 part (so far) civil aviation discussion @

http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/6026788

I like this 'sanity check' given at the beginning of part 29:

"Sanity Check

• Doing this as much to keep my brain aligned as to provide a data source.
• The facts have not changed much, however the is more data about track and time-line
• I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
• I'm going to try to list what we know, not what we think - we being the public. And sadly it is very short.

First a synopsis
• The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
• The last ACARS transmission was about 01:07 local. Confusion continues about if and when ACARS was turned off(See ACARS below)
• The last comms were a normal hand-off from Malaysia to Vietnam control at about 1:30 local. It was a normal 'good night' on the Malaysian side, but Vietnam was not contacted.
• The aircraft dropped off secondary radar with no communication from the cockpit.
• There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
• There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Straight and then north west Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
• SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
• SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are 2 paths the aircraft could have taken
• Path one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
• Path two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
• The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north path and light over the south path.
• We have no ELT signal detected.
• While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.

ACARS
• ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, primarily maintenance information, to maintenance facilities like the airline, Boeing, Engine Manf, etc.
• ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
• ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
• ACARS communicates via VHF or SATCOM (and maybe Wifi at the gate). The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.

ACARS data from MH370
• The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
• There seems to be disagreement on if the ACARS was switched off, or if it was not expected to send more data.
• The Malaysian PM stated they had high confidence ACARS was turned off.
• But, Rolls Royce has not commented on if more ACARS reports would have been expected prior to landing.
• Turning off ACARS reportedly requires entering the EE bay which is not simple in flight.
• UPDATE per TriStarSteve,26, 186ilots can deselect ACARS transmission by VHF and SATCOM. This does not turn off the VHF and SATCOM, just stops ACARS from using them.
• The ACARS report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
• UPDATE: Per the RR webpage a snapshot would be expected at takeoff, climb, cruise and summary post landing.
• Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS was turned off, or the a/c did not land. It is not clear to me if the last report was climb or cruise.
• We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

SATCOM
• SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
• SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
• The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat satellites.

SATCOM Pings
• The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites. These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
• SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel.
• The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time
• SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated.
• Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible routes have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings would occur if the aircraft was landed, but operating.
• We have not seen data on this, but I would presume it would.
• People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
• Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

CRV/FDR Data
• The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
• They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
• The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
• I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

Way-point Tracks
• The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
• While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just along the path.

Airworthiness Directive
• The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
• The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Lithium Battery Fires.
• There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
• It seems very unlikely a fire could be intense enough to disable the crew, but then the a/c would survive and fly for 7+ hours.
• Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c.

Search Areas
• Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
• West over the Malacca straight
• North west of Malacca straight
• Along the two tracks predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
• These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
• It appears the north route is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
• I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Conspiracy Theories
• There are lots of conspiracy theories out there - from the Malaysian government hiding something to pilot suicide, to hijacking to whatever.
• The breadth of the countries searching alone makes me discount many of the government is hiding it aspects
• It is likely there are covert (secret) resources in the area that are trying to provide the info without revealing themselves.
• Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
• Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
• Investigations of crew have begun in earnest.
• Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.

Mobile phones
• We know that if any mobile phones were connected to the tower - we would have a location and would search there.
• We don't have any reports or evidence of that - so I conclude that it is not viable to consider.

I've deleted the sections on incompetence and false sitings - for brevity.
IN summary what we know is.
• The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
• There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
• SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
• We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

What seems likely.
• A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
• The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
• While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved."

 

Okay okay...here's what happened.

The drinks had been served and everyone was happy, sipping away on cokes, sprites, and water from plastic cups with uncomfortably wide tops for use on an airplane.
Suddenly, light started to shine into window C3. It was an odd light, and the passenger began to stare. He lifted the cover and thought it was strange to see this type of light at this time of night. Just as his seatmate started to comment, the other passengers began seeing the odd light shine into their windows, and everyone began lifting the covers.

Up front, the pilots looked at each other. They looked forward, then back at each other again. What was that strange opening in the sky, that light that seemed to be opening up? Suddenly, the power on the plane shut down. The sky behind them grew ever darker as the light opened up and pulled the plane inside.

"It's a force field!" they shouted together. "But how? Why?" They could not help but feel an overwhelming calm, though they knew the abnormality of the situation. The quietness from the passengers let them know that their feeling of peace was shared.

The Buddhist monks knew better. They'd seen breaks in the space time continuum and knew that the feeling of peace was a trick caused by the Minaumanids of Mintaus, who often captured those who flew too close to sector 79 and used them in their open air factories to mass produce buttons with the letter L for their keyboards.

The monks are busy using their powers of ascension from their human bodies and ability to transcend time and space to return the plane and her passengers to the proper time and place on planet. However, they haven't got it right yet. The first time, they skipped it over the ocean, causing a mass oil slick near Vietnam, and it started going down. They went back to the time of the time gap and tried again. Then they crashed it as they were headed towards China, and had to start over yet again. They are repeating their efforts until they get it right, and hopefully do not land it too far from a logical area where it will raise too many questions, as they do not like to talk and do not wish to be seen as heroes.

In the meantime, all passengers are under the delusion that they are truly happy as they work in the open fields of the Minaumanids in the land of Mintaus, producing those letter L's for the keyboards. And maybe it's not so much a delusion, for in that land, minimum wage workers all get paid $15 an hours and get a bonus of 35 letter L's every 14th day of Schrem. The government is run by children 12 and under, and the clouds rain peppermint jam on biscuit day, which doesn't cause a bug problem because the Scoops quickly eat all the leftovers.

Which all means that at any moment, the plane should be flying in and all will be well with the world.

LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL