Gallup: Romney Jumps to 4 Point Lead Ahead of Debate

[Revmitchell]

Remember all that happy talk from the media last month that Obama had the election in the bag and debates wouldn't really make a difference? In the real world, Romney trounced Obama in their first debate and has been gaining momentum in both national and state polls. Ahead of their debate tonight, Romney enjoys his biggest lead of the election in Gallup's daily tracking poll of likely voters. Today's tracking poll finds Romney 4 points ahead of Obama. The poll also finds that Romney has hit the critical 50% threshold, leading Obama 50-46.

Worse news for Obama, though, is that, in virtually every national or state poll, he continues to be stuck in the mid-40s. A general rule of thumb is that any incumbent consistently polling in the mid-40s is in trouble. Everyone knows the incumbent and has at least a general opinion of his performance. Once an incumbent fails to win the support of a majority of voters, it is very hard to claw his way back. When more than half the voters don't support you, its hard to build a winning coalition.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/16/gallup-romney-jumps-to-4-point-lead

 

[saturneptune]

Remember all that happy talk from the media last month that Obama had the election in the bag and debates wouldn't really make a difference? In the real world, Romney trounced Obama in their first debate and has been gaining momentum in both national and state polls. Ahead of their debate tonight, Romney enjoys his biggest lead of the election in Gallup's daily tracking poll of likely voters. Today's tracking poll finds Romney 4 points ahead of Obama. The poll also finds that Romney has hit the critical 50% threshold, leading Obama 50-46.

Worse news for Obama, though, is that, in virtually every national or state poll, he continues to be stuck in the mid-40s. A general rule of thumb is that any incumbent consistently polling in the mid-40s is in trouble. Everyone knows the incumbent and has at least a general opinion of his performance. Once an incumbent fails to win the support of a majority of voters, it is very hard to claw his way back. When more than half the voters don't support you, its hard to build a winning coalition.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/16/gallup-romney-jumps-to-4-point-lead

I basically agree with you. Only the electoral college gives Obama a chance. He should be thanking the Founding Fathers every night. I do think we need to wait until after tonight's debate before we celebrate too much. However, the first debate changed the tone of the election, no doubt about it. In the two elections we have seen an incumbent defeated in our lifetime, I do not think the Bush defeat was any surprise, but the Reagan defeat of Carter caught many by surprise.

 

[Revmitchell]

Swing States poll: Women push Romney into lead

WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...tates-poll-women-voters-romney-obama/1634791/

 

[SolaSaint]

I truly think Romney will win in a landslide. Even before the last debate he was coming up in the polls. If Obama doesn't pull out some majic bullet tonight or next debate, I think it is over.

 

[saturneptune]

Thanks for the post. I had not seen those state polls.

 

[Winman]

I truly think Romney will win in a landslide. Even before the last debate he was coming up in the polls. If Obama doesn't pull out some majic bullet tonight or next debate, I think it is over.

Oh yeah, unless Romney does something incredibly stupid it's going to be a stomp. Romney was leading in 24 different polls today, and in all 11 swing states.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/09/Romney-leads-11-Swing-States

I don't think Obama can win it, only Romney can lose it. But I believe he is too smart to do that.