GOP pollster Frank Luntz says his industry is 'done' after poor 2020 forecasts

[Revmitchell]

Longtime Republican pollster Frank Luntz says his industry is "done" after major forecasts were way off in projecting outcomes in the 2020 general election.

As numbers rolled in during the tight race between President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden on Tuesday night, Luntz told Axios, "The political polling profession is done." He added, "It is devastating for my industry."

National polls leading up to Election Day showed Biden held a commanding advantage over Trump, but the two candidates were neck and neck out of the gate and remained in a heated battle so close Wednesday that lawsuits were already filed.

The Hill pointed out that "beyond the presidential election...many pollsters were projecting that Democrats would gain House seats and the Senate majority," adding that, "Instead, it appears that Republicans will gain House seats and that the party has a strong chance of keeping control of the Senate."

On Twitter, Luntz pointed to the fact that GOP Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) was behind challenger Sara Gideon (D) in 14 major polls as Nov. 3 approached, but ended up winning by several points. He called the widespread inaccuracy "a systemic failure."

GOP pollster Frank Luntz says his industry is 'done' after poor 2020 forecasts

 

[church mouse guy]

The previous system depended on landlines in homes.

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

The previous system depended on landlines in homes.

They were never all that good. They couldn’t even predict Reagan’s first win. But again, this assumes they are really trying rather than manipulating.

 

[church mouse guy]

In ‘48 they predicted Dewey but the problem was that you had to be middle class to have a telephone. In the 1950s everyone had one.

 

[Van]

I think Jake Tapper said the same thing after 2016....

And the polls showed Mr. Reagan way behind two or three weeks before his first Presidential election. They said there was a "dramatic shift" just before the vote. I believe technically, polling can assess the state of the voters, but technically you can construct a polling methodology to favor on side by any number of points.

Something new in my lifetime is the idea you report not what you believe is true, but what polling tells you the majority of people think. Thus polling can be used to indoctrinate rather than educate.

 

[rlvaughn]

I think many of the pollsters are plain frauds. I also think this is an important story, even if President Trump ultimately loses -- the pollsters did a terrible job, whether deliberately or whether they are just incompetent (and probably some of both).

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

What’s funny is that the polls are far more predictable than they are predictive.

At least one person has pointed out that the polls predictably “tighten” as election day nears, always from highly favoring the Dem progressive left to a less certain outcome.

In this way they are able to manipulate and yet claim a semblance of accuracy, purportedly within their "margin of error."

 

[RighteousnessTemperance&]

Kellyanne Conway breaks down what went wrong with election polls

Kellyanne does a good job of spelling it out. A key point is that, regardless of how poorly they poll, these people never lose their jobs.