GOP Rule 40: Will it Trump Donald Trump?

[InTheLight]

Rule 40 in the Republican National Convention handbook states, "any candidate for president shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention."

Basically a candidate must garner 50.1% of the primary votes in 8 states or else their name cannot be presented to the national convention for nomination.

I've been saying all along that the results of the GOP primaries have been:

Trump 33%
Not Trump 67%

So, let's look at the results of the states that Trump has won, and his percentage share of the vote totals.

New Hampshire: 35.3%
South Carolina: 32.5%
Nevada: 45.9%
Alabama: 43.4%
Arkansas: 32.8%
Georgia: 38.8%
Massachusetts: 49.3%
Tennessee: 38.9%
Vermont: 32.7%
Virginia: 34.7%

So, as it stands right now, Donald Trump's name, by GOP rules, could not be placed into nomination at the national convention in Cleveland. He hasn't gotten over 50% in any state he's won.

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2014/03/11/a-brokered-gop-convention-in-2016

 

[Rolfe]

I think that, with the Trump Implosion of the Republican Party, we are witnessing events which will be written about for at least the next generation.

 

[InTheLight]

I think that, with the Trump Implosion of the Republican Party, we are witnessing events which will be written about for at least the next generation.

Yes, I'm telling my teenagers to soak it up and try to remember this election year. It's the first year my oldest can vote.

We've lived through some crazy ones too--the Bush/Gore recount, Clinton/Bush/Perot and Reagan/Carter/Anderson. I remember there was a point in 1980 when John Anderson was leading in the polls. Also, remember when Perot dropped out, then got back in two weeks later? And his VIce Presidential running mate, Adm. James Stockdale's opening statement at the VP debate, "Who am I? Why am I here?"

 

[Zaac]

That also means that none of the others can be nominated either by this standard.

 

[Jerome]

Rule 40 in the Republican National Convention handbook states, "any candidate for president shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states before their name is presented for nomination at the national convention."

Basically a candidate must garner 50.1% of the primary votes in 8 states or else their name cannot be presented to the national convention for nomination.

I've been saying all along...

Oops.

Delegates means...delegates.

Most states have thresholds, ceilings, etc., or are winner takes all.

Thus Trump has a majority of the delegates from five states so far.

 

[InTheLight]

Oops.

Delegates means...delegates.

Most states have thresholds, ceilings, etc., or are winner takes all.

Thus Trump has a majority of the delegates from five states so far.

No, he doesn't have a majority from five states, he has a plurality. He hasn't won a single state with more than 50% of the vote. He needs eight state victories with at least 50% of the vote or his name can't be put up for nomination on the floor of the convention.

 

[Salty]

No, he doesn't have a majority from five states, he has a plurality. He hasn't won a single state with more than 50% of the vote. He needs eight state victories with at least 50% of the vote or his name can't be put up for nomination on the floor of the convention.

and neither can Cruz.

ITL also said:
"I've been saying all along that the results of the GOP primaries have been:

Trump 33%
Not Trump 67%"

I dont know the exact stat, but you could also say:

Cruz 25%
Not Cruz 75"

So what is your point?

 

[Jerome]

The rule is not about % of the vote, it's about delegates won.

RNC Rule 40, as quoted by OP: "a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states"

Trump has won a majority of the delegates of SC, AL, GA, TN, and MA.

 

[Salty]

Wonder what would happen if NO candidate met that threshold?

 

[InTheLight]

The rule is not about % of the vote, it's about delegates won.

RNC Rule 40, as quoted by OP: "a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states"

Trump has won a majority of the delegates of SC, AL, GA, TN, and MA.

From the article:

He proposed increasing the amount of states required for an aspiring nominee from five to eight. He also changed the requirement from a simple plurality -- any leading percentage of the vote under 50 percent -- to a harder-to-attain majority. It was all meant to insulate Romney from an intraparty threat. As pugilistic as he is savvy, Ginsberg got almost everything he wanted.

 

[InTheLight]

Wonder what would happen if NO candidate met that threshold?

They could change the rule the night before the floor vote.

 

[InTheLight]

and neither can Cruz.

ITL also said:
"I've been saying all along that the results of the GOP primaries have been:

Trump 33%
Not Trump 67%"

I dont know the exact stat, but you could also say:

Cruz 25%
Not Cruz 75"

So what is your point?

People are saying that Trump is leading all other candidates by a wide margin and that he will be the GOP nominee. If it were a two man race, Trump would not be leading anything.

A year ago, there were 16 GOP candidates. As candidates have dropped out--Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, etc. Trump's share of the primary voters has not increased, but the remaining candidates HAVE increased. This proves that Trump is not heavily favored among GOP voters, instead, because there are three other choices the Not Trump category is splitting votes, making it appear that Trump is invincible. Trump's support is static. He's not gaining votes as others drop out. He's peaked.

So if it were only Trump and Cruz in the race, it would be:
Cruz 65%
Not Cruz 35%

If it were only Kasich and Trump in the race, it would be:
Kasich 65%
Not Kasich 35%

 

[kyredneck]

... If it were a two man race, Trump would not be leading anything.

Rubio should have the gumption to drop out for the sake of the party. It's pretty clear he's not gaining traction.

 

[Jerome]

From the article:

He proposed increasing the amount of states required for an aspiring nominee from five to eight. He also changed the requirement from a simple plurality -- any leading percentage of the vote under 50 percent -- to a harder-to-attain majority. It was all meant to insulate Romney from an intraparty threat. As pugilistic as he is savvy, Ginsberg got almost everything he wanted.

The rule is about delegates, not popular vote percentage. The rule used to require a plurality of a state's delegates but was changed to a majority of a state's delegates.

Read the actual Rule.

The way you're reading your article's (mis)characterization of the Rule is not accurate.

 

[InTheLight]

The rule is about delegates, not popular vote percentage. The rule used to require a plurality of a state's delegates but was changed to a majority of a state's delegates.

Read the actual Rule.

The way you're reading your article's (mis)characterization of the Rule is not accurate.

I've heard it described as both a majority of delegates and as a majority of votes. Delegates makes more sense since it is a convention rule, so you could be correct.

However, if it is a majority of delegates, and with "winner take all states", it could create the strange situation where a candidate is the overall delegate leader but does not have eight states where he has won a majority of delegates and also a candidate that has won eight states with a majority of delegates yet is not the overall delegate leader. Whew.

 

[777]

Okay, I agree that rule 40 in particular was made to be broken - four years ago, Ron Paul was in the race and his people tried to use all the delegates he got in mostly caucus states to use the RNC for their own purposes. The RNC changed the old rule to this one to avoid that because then a candidate with niche support couldn't jack Mitt's convention. Romney had enough delegates and more to secure a first ballot nomination.

So they probably will change it again, and maybe they should - not to rig the results or anything but I can see why people are so confused with the wording of rule 40. "Majority" means 50%+ but plurality just means "the most of all". Understood, so by these definitions, Iowa wasn't won by anyone, since Cruz won only 8 delegates out of 30. I think rule 40 was not that well thought-out, more of a stop-gap measure. Florida could be won by, say, Trump with 30% of the vote or less - all 88 delegates.

 

[Jerome]

So far, Trump got a majority of delegates of 5 (SC, AL, GA, TN, MA), Cruz got 3 (TX, KS, ME), and Rubio 1 (PR).

But in most of the contests so far, no one got a majority of the delegates.

 

[Jerome]

Trump now has seven of the eight after winning delegate majorities in Mississippi and Hawaii yesterday.

Cruz got Idaho. He's half way to the minimum with half of the states left to go.

 

[blessedwife318]

Rubio should have the gumption to drop out for the sake of the party. It's pretty clear he's not gaining traction.

Especially after last night. His results were just sad.

 

[FriendofSpurgeon]

Especially after last night. His results were just sad.

Very low last night. Putting all his eggs into the Florida basket.