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Grim Battleground Polls for Trump Supporters

InTheLight

InTheLight

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So Georgia is in play.

Historical results in Georgia

............Rep. Dem.
2012....53.3%...45.5%
2008....53.2%...47.0%
2004....58.0%...41.4%
2000....54.7%...43.0%
1996....47.0%...45.8%
-------------------

A new poll shows Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received a bump after the Democratic National Convention and is now tied with Republican candidate Donald Trump in Georgia.

The exclusive Channel 2 Action News poll conducted by Landmark/Rosetta Stone polled nearly 800 likely Georgia voters. The poll, conducted over the weekend, found Trump and Clinton deadlocked with 45 percent of the vote.

http://www.wsbtv.com/web/wsbtv/news...p-deadlocked-in-latest-georgia-poll/415167092
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

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Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump appears to be facing an insurmountable wall among Latino voters in the key swing state of Florida: only 12.9% support among Hispanic voters, according to a new survey.

In 2008 John McCain won 42% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, compared to 31% nationwide. Four years later, Mitt Romney got 39% of the Latino vote in Florida, compared to 27% nationally, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

http://www.univision.com/univision-...s-trump-has-a-big-hispanic-problem-in-florida

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InTheLight

InTheLight

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According to a new WBUR poll of New Hampshire voters, Hillary Clinton is enjoying a dramatic post-convention bump and now leads Donald Trump by 15 points. Our poll also shows Democrat Maggie Hassan with a big advantage in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte.

Our new poll (topline, crosstabs) of 609 likely New Hampshire voters, conducted July 29 through Aug. 1, shows Clinton leading Trump 47 percent to 32 percent. When Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are omitted, Clinton's 15-point lead swells to 17 points.

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/08/04/clinton-over-trump-new-hampshire-poll
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

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777 said:
I got a new one for you:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/poll-clinton-leads-by-13-points-among-likely-voters-226790

13 point Hillary lead among likely voters? But look at the internals:



looks massaged beyond belief to me, the real MoE is 24%.
Click to expand...

That's an irresponsible poll. Traditionally, there are slightly more people that identify as Democrats vs. Republicans, perhaps 3% to 5% more depending on what year you look at, but this "poll" gives the Democrats a 9% advantage? !!

It's sad that every time a poll comes out one must click on the link for "methodology" and read the fine print to determine if the data is worthless or not.
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

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8/12/16

The latest NBC/WSJ Marist polls

Florida
Clinton 44%
Trump 39%

North Carolina
Clinton 48%
Trump 39%

Virginia
Clinton 46%
Trump 33%

Colorado
Clinton 46%
Trump 32%

If Clinton can manage to get South Carolina, unthinkable in most years (last time it went Democrat was 1976 and Trump is leading there by only 2 points, with a 2.7% margin of error), Clinton would have built a wall of blue states up and down the entire eastern seaboard.
 
777

777

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Garbage methodology, asking for the "youngest male" in the house alone will give you scads of millennial liberals and single moms. Other problems, the live interviews, the "press `2 for Spanish" (will cause many to just hang up at the sound of that), the long polling period, the sketchy weighting, etc. I think she is ahead in Colorado and Virginia, however.


Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of Florida were contacted on landline or mobile numbers and interviewed in English or Spanish by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of Florida from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. This landline sample was combined with respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey SamplingInternational. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region, except for race,which is from the 2010 census. Results are statistically significant within ±3.1 percentage points. There are 862 registered voters.
Click to expand...

that one was for Florida but they're all the same by them. Looks awfully contorted, and it's getting to be time to switch off to likely voters.

I'd take the PPP one in SC with a grain a salt, too, the state Democratic Party sponsored it:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/08/clintontrump-race-tight-in-south-carolina.html

You get what you pay for, and Hillary's people shouldn't waste their time on SC.
 
The American Dream

The American Dream

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This thread is as meaningless as Hillary's honesty and trust. She is nothing but a common criminal. It is 88 days until the election and lots can happen, like exposing Hillary for the murderer and traitor she is. On the eve of the 1980 election, Carter and Reagan were tied.

So ITL, are you posting all of these threads to ensure we elect the first known felon President?
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
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826859fb6e17a339e52b9c31ed2e4f0e.jpg


Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

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Recent poll of Virginia. This graphic shows that Trump is falling far behind Romney's numbers in 2012 on the same demographics. For example, where Romney had a 24 point lead over Obama among whites, Trump only has an 8 point lead over Clinton with whites. Where Obama led Romney by 9 points among women, Clinton leads Trump by 25 points among women.

But here is the death knell. Among independents, Romney led Obama by 11 points; but Clinton leads Trump by 13 points. That is a 24 point swing.

Trump VA Poll.JPG
 
777

777

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The problems with the Florida one - look at the MoE under party ID - it's over 8%. And the poll is really a Rubio scenario, the headline reads:

Clinton Leads for Prez, Rubio Leads for Senate
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
Rubio reelection bid seen as driven by ambition over public service

Nice slap at Marco. In the other one, well, it's a WaPo article and the "analysis" is partisan beyond reason:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...0e1540-6307-11e6-be4e-23fc4d4d12b4_story.html

And then the internals:

31/21/37 D/R/I but their own precious 2012 exit poll gave a 39/32/29 split:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/#Virginia

I don't care what these push polls say, Hillary probably win there by five or so points, thanks to Tim Kaine, and Trump will win in Indiana, thanks to Pence. Swing states no more.
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

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Latest Real Clear Politics Poll Averages, Trump vs. Clinton (2 way race)

Colorado.....Clinton +1.8%
Florida........Clinton +2.9%
Michigan.....Clinton +5.3%
New Hamp..Clinton +6.3%
N. Carolina..Clinton +0.2% (Romney won in 2012)
Ohio...........Trump +3.4% (Obama won in 2012)
Pennsyl......Clinton +3.2%
Virginia.......Clinton +7.0%
Wisconsin...Clinton +4.7%
 
Squire Robertsson

Squire Robertsson

Administrator
Administrator
Except for Virginia, New Hampshire, Michigan and possibly Wisconsin, the numbers look to be within the margin of error. Neither side should count their chickens.
 
Zaac

Zaac

Well-Known Member
InTheLight said:
Latest Real Clear Politics Poll Averages, Trump vs. Clinton (2 way race)

Colorado.....Clinton +1.8%
Florida........Clinton +2.9%
Michigan.....Clinton +5.3%
New Hamp..Clinton +6.3%
N. Carolina..Clinton +0.2% (Romney won in 2012)
Ohio...........Trump +3.4% (Obama won in 2012)
Pennsyl......Clinton +3.2%
Virginia.......Clinton +7.0%
Wisconsin...Clinton +4.7%
Click to expand...
Good. We deserve her for turning our backs on God and supporting two folks who reject Christ and then have the audacity to talk about the country going into the abyss.[emoji57]

I hope her numbers continue to go up and that it brings unrepentant supporters of that wicked man to their knees in repentance.



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777

777

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I wonder about Virginia in particular, why has all the polling of that state been so off for the last several years? On any race there.

Does anybody know what Hillary is doing pulling out of both Ohio and Florida? Like Squire says, it's too close to call, don't see why she left Ohio, much less Florida:

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-b...illary-clinton-ground-game-in-florida/2295804

I know they stopped spending big money to get rid of Rubio over there, and that made sense, they'll never unseat him but writing off Hillary's chances there makes no sense at all.
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

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Arizona (!) is now a toss-up state. Here are the recent past results in AZ:

2012 Romney 53.7%
2008 McCain 53.6%
2004 Bush 54.9%
2000 Bush 51.0%

Here is the latest poll:

Trump vs. Clinton AZ Poll.JPG

Margin of error is 3.6%
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

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Georgia appears to have turned Blue. Last time it went Democrat was in 1992.
------

It's voted Republican for nearly quarter of a century, but now it appears Donald Trump has managed to turn the state of Georgia towards Hillary Clinton.

According to a YouGov poll, Ms Clinton leads the property tycoon with 48.3 per cent of the vote compared to his 42.4 per cent, marking the map with a faint blue.

Her claim on Georgia shrinks the size of the Republican South and further mars Donald Trump's chances winning the White House.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-vote-first-time-not-republican-a7365036.html
 
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