You are wrong, you're not in contention with me over this, you are disputing a nation wide Church Survey done in the mid-eighties y the Barna Group. There is actually no reason to dislike the survey, no, ideed! To the Saved Man, Woman, or child, it places them in the middle of the Mission Field each and every Sunday.I'm happy to accept that all twenty of those children are or may be in eternity with God. I trust in God as the ultimate judge of the soul.
Again, I'll emphasize the point that I believe that the parents of those deceased would probably argue with your point that; "The children the Newtown shooter killed are much better off than the children hacked with the hatchet in China."
Do you also believe that death in hell is as eternal as life in God's prescience is?
As to your "speculation" about the numbers of saved, only 2% or less than;
Distraction done?
In my home church, it's membership of about 400, (active is all I'll concern myself with here) your formula would allow for only our four pastors and maybe three of their four wives to be saved. That small number from the entire body. None of their children, grandchildren, extended families, no one else if the statistics are correct. So that must assume that those saved shepherds of God are absolutely ineffective at performing their roles in the Great Commission. I'm going out on a limb here and hoping that my home church is a statistical anomaly and will say that maybe a whopping 4% (that's a 100% increase) were saved, that would mean realistically the fundamentalist church down the road had 0% saved. Or pick another somewhere else.
All that to say that I strongly disagree with your stats. The dimensions of the New Heaven alone (I have my own personal mansion in there somewhere) evidence a vast, unimaginable multitude that would far exceed any that your numbers, speculative or not, give the lie to.