hotting up in the Koreas

[Rippon]

I read an article in the Washington Post by Anthony Faiola who also suggest that the south koreans want unification on their terms.

Yeah? How old is the article?

Some South Koreans may say that they desire eventual reunification. But even the optimistic ones indicate that that possibility will be a couple decades away. Just the sheer financial burden South Korea would have to shoulder would be way too much. The reunification of West and East Germany was a breeze in comparison.

If the two Koreans are unified somewhere down the road of course South Korea would want it on their terms -- do you think they would capitulate to the North Korean regime's ideas?! Come on!

Another article by Selig S. Harrison, director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy, also supports my view.

What article? When was it written? What view are you advocating?

You already acknowledged that the idea that South Korean is itching for a fight with Noth Korea is bogus.

What's your latest view that you are contesting for?

As I begin to study I'm finding out Rippon I'm not so far off. And suddenly I'm not so Zanny.

You are far out alright.

 

[Thinkingstuff]

Yeah? How old is the article?

Some South Koreans may say that they desire eventual reunification. But even the optimistic ones indicate that that possibility will be a couple decades away. Just the sheer financial burden South Korea would have to shoulder would be way too much. The reunification of West and East Germany was a breeze in comparison.

If the two Koreans are unified somewhere down the road of course South Korea would want it on their terms -- do you think they would capitulate to the North Korean regime's ideas?! Come on!




What article? When was it written? What view are you advocating?

You already acknowledged that the idea that South Korean is itching for a fight with Noth Korea is bogus.

What's your latest view that you are contesting for?



You are far out alright.

The article I read were in conjunction with the problems going on right now. And who ever said S Korea will capitulate with the North? Didn't I say on their own terms? I don't deny N Korea will be a significant drain economically on the south however for those who have the dream of reunification I'm certain they still have it. If you're right about the S Korean's not accepting an apology for the afair? Then the old nothing will happen seems not to be certain. What will satiate the south? If their president gets his way the leaders of the attack will be punished. But to what extent will the South accept this?
My suggestion has been that there is a dream of reunification maybe not held by all but I've seen it expressed in their movies and games. If an incident were to arise I believe we will have a shooting match over there which is really bad all the way round. I don't think the South will just capitulate to the North and will fight if they find the cause just. Just like it would be bad if Iran shot a nuke at Israel. Worse than if russia attacked Polland because of our missles. Though each of these senario's are bad it doesn't deminish the possiblity of these things happening

 

[John of Japan]

You know, as another BB dude living in the Far East (within missile range of N. Korea here in Hokkaido), I'm going to agree with almost all of what Rippon has been saying (don't faint, Rippon)--but perhaps without Rippon's rhetoric.

Here is the view from Japan.

(1) The South wants reunification but not immediately--it would cost an incredible economic price. Gradual reunification would be best. And they certainly are not "raring to fight" N. Korea. It would be messy with many deaths.

(2) The North does appear to be pretty serious with their threats. Our Japanese friends are very afraid it will be war. Japan itself has come out strongly in public backing S. Korea.

(3) The North but is well behind in technology. However, has a huge standing army and would do damage in the early hours of the war.

(4) Therefore, the North could do great damage to Seoul, but not destroy it. According to a friend who lived in Korea for awhile, Seoul is well within range of N. Korean artillery batteries. Many civilians would die.

(5) However, if there were a war, the South (and the US) would win handily through simple logistics. An army marches on food and gasoline and ammunition and other supplies--all of which are scarce in the North.

(6) I just talked this morning to a missionary friend in Okinawa (where we have major military bases), and his friends in the military tell him things are heating up.

Praying for peace.

 

[Melanie]

Thank you John for your input. It is no-ones interest to see the region destabilised but the North Koreans sound pretty desperate due to their isolationist attitudes to the world. The ordinary folk of the North would probably love tobe reunited with the South from an economic point of view if nothing else. War also focuses the populus attention away from domestic woes which maybe fueling the scene.

I hope it does not escalate....

 

[John of Japan]

Thank you John for your input. It is no-ones interest to see the region destabilised but the North Koreans sound pretty desperate due to their isolationist attitudes to the world. The ordinary folk of the North would probably love tobe reunited with the South from an economic point of view if nothing else. War also focuses the populus attention away from domestic woes which maybe fueling the scene.

I hope it does not escalate....

Amen to that!

I had an interesting conversation after church this morning. Mr. Ueno, a wise, older Japanese Christian, feels the North is just sounding off, trying to be tough. He completely dismisses the idea that they will start a war, since it would certainly not be in their best interest. And they have often been bombastic before.

Concering the character of the Northerners, most of them are completely brainwashed about their "Dear Leader." When we see documentaries on Japanese TV, it looks like a religion, complete with worship services. Plus, they are fed constant propaganda about how bad it is in the South. So for many in the North it will be a great shock when they learn the truth.

Having said that, there appears to be growing unrest in the North. More and more are fleeing to China, hoping for a better life. (Once again, Japanese TV occasionally has documentaries on this--their reporters have much better access to the North than Americans, of course.) And we all know what happened in Iraq when Sadaam fell. Many rejoiced who had kept their hatred quiet for fear of Sadaam and his wicked sons.

 

[Rippon]

You know, as another BB dude living in the Far East (within missile range of N. Korea here in Hokkaido), I'm going to agree with almost all of what Rippon has been saying (don't faint, Rippon)

Whadda' ya know?

--but perhaps without Rippon's rhetoric.

Hmm...

Here is the view from Japan.

(1) The South wants reunification but not immediately--it would cost an incredible economic price. Gradual reunification would be best. And they certainly are not "raring to fight" N. Korea. It would be messy with many deaths.

Not many want reunification at any time.

If there will be unification it will indeed be very pricey. But the toll will be high in a number of areas. I can just picture millions of starving North Koreans streaming down to Seoul and the massive unrest it will cause for quite some time. They'll need jobs,food,money, and help for a whole range of things. Then there will be discrimination by the South Koreans toward the Notherners.

(2) The North does appear to be pretty serious with their threats. Our Japanese friends are very afraid it will be war. Japan itself has come out strongly in public backing S. Korea.

I'm glad about the fact of your last sentence.

(3) The North is well behind in technology. However, it has a huge standing army and would do damage in the early hours of the war.

Yes.

(4) Therefore, the North could do great damage to Seoul, but not destroy it. According to a friend who lived in Korea for awhile, Seoul is well within range of N. Korean artillery batteries. Many civilians would die.

Yep.

(5) However, if there were a war, the South (and the US) would win handily through simple logistics. An army marches on food and gasoline and ammunition and other supplies--all of which are scarce in the North.

Agreed.

(6) I just talked this morning to a missionary friend in Okinawa (where we have major military bases), and his friends in the military tell him things are heating up.

I pray that things will cool down soon.

Praying for peace.

Ditto.

This is no fun agreeing with your whole post.

 

[Rippon]

I had an interesting conversation after church this morning. Mr. Ueno, a wise, older Japanese Christian, feels the North is just sounding off, trying to be tough. He completely dismisses the idea that they will start a war, since it would certainly not be in their best interest. And they have often been bombastic before.

Doing my Gary Cooper again -- Yep.

Concering the character of the Northerners, most of them are completely brainwashed about their "Dear Leader." When we see documentaries on Japanese TV, it looks like a religion, complete with worship services. Plus, they are fed constant propaganda about how bad it is in the South. So for many in the North it will be a great shock when they learn the truth.

Actually most do have information about how much better it is in other parts of the world like South Korea and Japan.

Having said that, there appears to be growing unrest in the North. More and more are fleeing to China, hoping for a better life. (Once again, Japanese TV occasionally has documentaries on this--their reporters have much better access to the North than Americans, of course.) And we all know what happened in Iraq when Sadaam fell. Many rejoiced who had kept their hatred quiet for fear of Sadaam and his wicked sons.

The Japanese have to be commended for their documentaries. They have come through in a better way then the South Koreans. I've seen videos which showed scenes rarely sighted. They have had North Koreans hooked up with hidden cameras risking their lives to show the world the horrors of North Korea. Of course the North Koreans were willing participants in the projects.

 

[John of Japan]

This is no fun agreeing with your whole post.

Quick, we need to find something to disagree about!

 

[John of Japan]

Actually most do have information about how much better it is in other parts of the world like South Korea and Japan.

Aha! Maybe we can disagree here. I'm not sure there's enough information coming out of the North to make this statement. But then that would probably eliminate my previous statement also.

Exact figures about the North are hard to come by, since no one does honest polls up there (or over there from Hokkaido). So, what percent are still Christians? How many actually oppose their "Dear Leader" in private? How many Northerners want (peaceful) reunification? How many would actually like reunification through war? Who knows these things other than God?

 

[Rippon]

Exact figures about the North are hard to come by, since no one does honest polls up there (or over there from Hokkaido). So, what percent are still Christians?

I've seen estimates around the 10% range. As you know, persecution purifies. We will probably be shocked at how many authentic Christians have been secretly worshipping underground for decades -- despite extreme hardhip and danger.

How many actually oppose their "Dear Leader" in private?

Just about every single person outside of Pyongyang. And I'll bet a clear majority of folks there too.

How many Northerners want (peaceful) reunification?

They want the misery of the dictatorship to end. They would love to peacefully reunite with South Korea.

How many would actually like reunification through war?

I doubt even any of the high ranking military leaders want that.

Who knows these things other than God?

That's a truism.

 

[John of Japan]

That's a truism.

But a very true truism. :flower:

 

[Darrell C]

Hello John,

Having said that, there appears to be growing unrest in the North. More and more are fleeing to China, hoping for a better life. (Once again, Japanese TV occasionally has documentaries on this--their reporters have much better access to the North than Americans, of course.) And we all know what happened in Iraq when Sadaam fell. Many rejoiced who had kept their hatred quiet for fear of Sadaam and his wicked sons.

Amen to that!

 

[John of Japan]

Sunday's Daily Yomiuri (the English version of the Japan-leading Yomiuri Shinbun) had an article pointing out that the Chinese are still mulling their public position on the sinking incident. If the Chinese come out excusing the N. Koreans, ignoring the international investigation's findings, the Koreans may then be bold enough to continue to more provocations. After all, the Chinese helped the North in the Korean War. So we can hope that China at least takes a neutral stance.

In the mean time, nothing further has happened. So maybe the North is willing to stop with nothing more than bluster and threats--their usual MO.

 

[kyredneck]

China and Japan 'back North Korea financial sanctions' 06-01-2010

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10201876.stm

"Mr Yu had no criticisms to make of China for failing to condemn North Korea publicly for the sinking of the Cheonan.

On the contrary, he felt that China had been privately helpful and understanding during the three-way summit with South Korea and Japan, which ended on Sunday."