Thanks for throwing down a ball park number. That's the first time I've seen that done by someone who doesn't oppose the cv jab.
The jabs were billed as "shot of hope" I remember the scene quite well from my Vancouver WA hotel room where I was finalizing my vaccine/immune system paper I've posted here elsewhere.
How much hope do we have in the cv jab now? even with about 70% (estimated; last official number I saw was 63% just after Thanksgiving) of the total population jabbed which includes a higher percentage in most of the urban areas (most likely to transmit the virus in 2300/sq mile pop density) ... even with mandates for inside dining?
The jab was supposed to "return to normal." Are we normal yet? Or are we never going to be normal because a minority won't take the jab?
The way I see it the vaccine has to provide a benefit that outweighs the risk of the vaccine and the virus.
I suppose different people will place this at different levels. Some of this is probably opinion, but some may also be a result of the population or category to which the person belongs.
I have not set a hard number. Now that we are dealing with varients rather than the alpha version this may be difficult....probably a moving target as the virus changes and the efficiency of the vaccine changes. Still, I think the overall principle remains.
The effectiveness of the vaccine, with time, does decrease. But the effectiveness with boosters is debatable. Reports out of Israel show a very high effectiveness.
Time seems to be a common issue. "Natural immunity" has proven worthless after 6 to 8 months, and completely worthless against the new varient. I'm not sure if this is because the virus changes or antibodies decrease.
My ultimate number would be closer to 50% effectiveness. The benefit would still far outweigh the risk, but you'd still have a 50% chance of serious illness.
I don't care at all about how effective a vaccine is against preventing infection. But I do about preventing serious illness and death. An asymptomatic infection is fine with me (it'd probably boost my immunity and maybe even give me super powers
).