That is an outright ignorant thing to say. The US just came out with the only (hopefully) reliable antibody test just a few days ago and it is only just now getting started. You are basing your conclusion on lies and wishful thinking.
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Is the Death Rate really 6%? Does truth matter?
- Thread starter Calminian
- Start date
Actually it is scientific research done in California and you have no evidence otherwise.
No, you are trying to counter scientific research from several California universities without presenting any scientific evidence.
Right! Magically this virus was spreading around and creating all these asymptomatic people with no one showing up at the hospital. Yeah, for months it was doing its work before we even knew it was here. The proof is that many people are reporting that they had mild symptoms months ago. ...and we know these numbers of your are correct because of all the antibody tests in which the results haven't even started coming in yet. Got it!
Buddy, I went to college and had to learn about vetting my sources when turning in my assignments if I had this source of yours it would have been an embarrassing fail for my grade. You hear only what you want to hear.
I would love that report to be true BUT I READ THE STUDY and it is a joke!
Gold Dragon
Well-Known Member
Influenza Weekly report week ending April 4
Over 40 weeks of the influenza season in the US there have been
247,785 confirmed influenza cases
19,802 hospitalizations with confirmed influenza (2nd worse hospitalization rate for influenza in the US in the last decade)
Covid19 in the US
Over 7 weeks since the first confirmed covid19 case in the US there have been
738,913 confirmed covid19 cases
54,339 confirmed covid19 hospitalizations just in the state of New York alone
Yes both influenza and covid19 have many unconfirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
[sarcasm]The logical response to high numbers of unconfirmed cases that would push those covid19 numbers even higher is to say that it is just like the flu and people should not worry about it.[/sarcasm]
Over 40 weeks of the influenza season in the US there have been
247,785 confirmed influenza cases
19,802 hospitalizations with confirmed influenza (2nd worse hospitalization rate for influenza in the US in the last decade)
Covid19 in the US
Over 7 weeks since the first confirmed covid19 case in the US there have been
738,913 confirmed covid19 cases
54,339 confirmed covid19 hospitalizations just in the state of New York alone
Yes both influenza and covid19 have many unconfirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
[sarcasm]The logical response to high numbers of unconfirmed cases that would push those covid19 numbers even higher is to say that it is just like the flu and people should not worry about it.[/sarcasm]
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So that is all that you have? Did you read the German study? So you are concluding that a group of California colleges do not know how to test for Chinese flu antibodies?
The Chinese virus kills elderly and others with serious illnesses. If you are sitting around eating $13 a pint ice cream for breakfast like Pelosi, you may not know that you had it because it is mild. But, as you know, the antibodies would show up in a blood test even in a blue blood like Pelosi.
Lets take a look at NY State;
..................................Total deaths...............Approx % of population
Total deaths....................12,200......................100
NY City..............................8,900........................50
Counties near NY City......3,000........................15
Upstate NY............................300........................35
I live near Syracuse (Onondaga County - death rate about 1/2 of a %)
The Onondaga County Indian reservation is located entirely within the Onondaga County
The Reservation has a population of 2,244 with zero deaths and zero cases of the virus!
Stats are rounded off. (above and below)
Lets see - NY City has 50% of the population -- but 73% of deaths
Upstate has has about 35% of State population - but only 2.5% of all deaths
Some counties upstate have had no deaths.
The top 4 upstate counties with the highest number of deaths
are the ones that Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany are located.
Methinks that most States/Commonwealths will follow a similar patern
Click here for the link of NY State Stats
..................................Total deaths...............Approx % of population
Total deaths....................12,200......................100
NY City..............................8,900........................50
Counties near NY City......3,000........................15
Upstate NY............................300........................35
I live near Syracuse (Onondaga County - death rate about 1/2 of a %)
The Onondaga County Indian reservation is located entirely within the Onondaga County
The Reservation has a population of 2,244 with zero deaths and zero cases of the virus!
Stats are rounded off. (above and below)
Lets see - NY City has 50% of the population -- but 73% of deaths
Upstate has has about 35% of State population - but only 2.5% of all deaths
Some counties upstate have had no deaths.
The top 4 upstate counties with the highest number of deaths
are the ones that Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse and Albany are located.
Methinks that most States/Commonwealths will follow a similar patern
Click here for the link of NY State Stats
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About the same in Indiana generally speaking. Indianapolis and Gary are sad but the rural areas are fine. So it is time to go back to work. Stay out of the big cities if you can.
The Federal government will not appropriate any money for studies of this Chinese flu until Pelosi finishes eating all of the $13 a pint ice cream in her $24,000 refrigerator and calls for the taxpayers to sent an Air Force jet to fly her back to Washington. She don't care how many destitute people die in some medicare nursing home somewhere.
This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the 2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related death
This Is How Many People Die From the Flu Each Year
To use a baseball analogy, Covid-19 is like Joey Gallo. The regular flu is like Dansby Swanson.
In 2019 Dansby Swanson batted .251. He slugged .422. He got an extra base hit in 8.4% of his plate appearances. He got a home run in 3.1% of his plate appearances.
In 2019 Joey Gallo batted .253, but he slugged .598. He got an extra base hit in 12.8% of his plate appearances. He got a home run in 7.4% of his plate appearances. In fact, Joey Gallo had only one less home run than he had singles.
So even though their hit rate was the same--.251 vs. .253--Joey Gallo had much more devastating hits and created many more runs per plate appearance than Dansby Swanson. Gallo's WAR (wins above replacement) value was 3.1; Swanson's WAR was 1.5. Gallo was twice as effective on offense as Swanson.
So even if Covid-19 proves to have a death rate similar to regular flu, it's other characteristics makes it much deadlier.
Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
My analogy is also a baseball analogy. "Mortality rate" in an ongoing pandemic is about as relevant as RBI is to a batter.
atpollard
Well-Known Member
Sorry, no baseball analogies from me. It seems to me that the following predictions for deaths from a “Pandemic” do not really describe the same event:
- 2.2 million death in US = the prediction that prompted the Economic Shutdown
- 700,000 deaths in the US = the prediction for an outbreak of Spanish Influenza Pandemic based on the last true Pandemic and the current US population.
- 60,000 to 90,000 death in US = the predictions proving to be most accurate for SARS-CoV-2 placing it at x2 to x3 the mortality of the typical flu.
- 60,000 death in US = the actual results of a “bad” flu season
- 30,000 death in US = the actual results of a “typical” flu season
Evidence from Europe seems to indicate that both countries that shut down and countries that didn’t have a rate of spread that is about 6 weeks to the peak and then levels off. Those countries that historically have high flu mortality rates have high SARS-CoV-2 mortality rates (like Italy) and those countries with low flu mortality rates have low SARS-CoV-2 mortality rates (like Germany).
Is the SARS-CoV-2 virus more dangerous than the flu? Yes, it appears so. Are we battling a true Spanish Influenza type of worldwide pandemic? Absolutely not.
ANALOGY: We are driving a nail with a wrecking ball and destroying our economic house in the process.
What happens when it is “safe” to go back to work and 1/3 of all small businesses no longer exist? That means 22% of the current workforce is now permanently unemployed. That is approximately a 20% contraction in the GNP of the country and the tax revenue. That is the definition of a real Depression (like in the 1930’s). That there will be a depression is certain because some businesses will not survive the closure. How bad it will be, nobody knows.
I agree and disagree. While the actual deaths in the US is close to but a bit higher than the flu season, we are talking about COVID-19 data from Feb 15 to April 18.
The flu-season data (at the CDC site) shows the flu season but is an annual number (annual deaths) not deaths within 2 months.
But I do think that we went overboard in many ways and damaged our economy more than was necessary. That said, looking at the disregard for social distancing during Spring Break in SC (the reason our beaches are shut down), the solution is more difficult.
I personally would not want go to a crowded beach knowing that people from all over the US had come to enjoy the weather and spread the virus. On a scale from 1 to 10 with 10 being the strictest standard, we probably hit 15 when 5 could have worked (depending, of course, on the area).
How do you calculate that number? Are you assuming that every one who is exposed to COVID-19 would become an active case and everyone would be exposed to COVID-19?