It’s not over yet: Donald Trump will win, says top forecaster Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/ess

[Revmitchell]

Hillary Clinton’s confidence could cost her the US presidency, according to a leading American political scientist who claims that Donald Trump is on course to win the US election in 12 days. The warning comes amid concerns from the Clinton campaign team that voter turnout will yet prove critical, despite many polls suggesting that the Democratic candidate is ahead of her Republican rival. The latest results from the poll considered to have most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, by IBD/TIPP, suggest that Ms Clinton may have a lead of just 0.6 per cent over Mr Trump, with 41.8 per cent backing the former US Secretary of State compared with 41.2 per cent for Mr Trump.

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/world/not-yet-donald-trump-will-win-says-top-forecaster/

 

[InTheLight]

The latest results from the poll considered to have most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, by IBD/TIPP, suggest that Ms Clinton may have a lead of just 0.6 per cent over Mr Trump, with 41.8 per cent backing the former US Secretary of State compared with 41.2 per cent for Mr Trump.

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/world/not-yet-donald-trump-will-win-says-top-forecaster/

And here is the very latest, from the "most accurate poll":

 

[annsni]

And here is the very latest, from the "most accurate poll":

View attachment 989

Give it a day or two for people to hear that their candidate is being investigated again by the FBI. For the FBI to reopen something that they already closed and made a decision on is very telling.

 

[evangelist6589]

Hillary Clinton’s confidence could cost her the US presidency, according to a leading American political scientist who claims that Donald Trump is on course to win the US election in 12 days. The warning comes amid concerns from the Clinton campaign team that voter turnout will yet prove critical, despite many polls suggesting that the Democratic candidate is ahead of her Republican rival. The latest results from the poll considered to have most accurately predicted the results of the last three elections, by IBD/TIPP, suggest that Ms Clinton may have a lead of just 0.6 per cent over Mr Trump, with 41.8 per cent backing the former US Secretary of State compared with 41.2 per cent for Mr Trump.

Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/world/not-yet-donald-trump-will-win-says-top-forecaster/

I pray and hope you are right Mitchell.

 

[Calminian]

And here is the very latest, from the "most accurate poll":

View attachment 989

It interesting though, that this poll was very inaccurate during the primaries and never favored Trump. I think he'll over perform on this poll by 5-10 points. It was the most accurate in 2012, but has been an anti-Trump poll since. I look for this poll to try to show a large Hillary lead in the come days to suppress the Trump vote.

 

[InTheLight]

I think he'll over perform on this poll by 5-10 points. It was the most accurate in 2012, but has been an anti-Trump poll since.

.

 

[Calminian]

Why do you doubt media bias?

 

[Calminian]

And here is the very latest, from the "most accurate poll":

View attachment 989

Just a 3 point lead? And from an anti-Trump poll?

 

[777]

IIRC, that last one had a D+8, it's very doubtful that that will reflect in the popular vote a week from Tuesday. The latest one has her up by 4:

http://www.investors.com/politics/c...-by-new-email-scandal-bombshell-ibdtipp-poll/

this is trailing the news and the internals still look shaky:

The results are based on a weighted sample of 368 Democrats, 299 Republicans, and 318 Independents

tracking polls will be tracking polls, this will all be over soon enough.

 

[InTheLight]

The results are based on a weighted sample of 368 Democrats, 299 Republicans, and 318 Independents

So a sample size of 985.

37.4% Dem
30.4% Rep
32.3% Ind

That's awfully close to the actual demographics of the nation.


Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo

 

[777]

Not really, one site says it's 33/33/34, another claims it's 32/28/40 but what's especially maddening about this poll is that they always get an R +1 or so, then they take that number and weight it to D+7 or 8.

2012, it was D+6, 2008, it was D+7, in 2004, it was dead even. This poll got the turnout numbers right but they could be way off here, if early voting indicators are correct.

 

[InTheLight]

Not really, one site says it's 33/33/34, another claims it's 32/28/40 but what's especially maddening about this poll is that they always get an R +1 or so, then they take that number and weight it to D+7 or 8.

2012, it was D+6, 2008, it was D+7, in 2004, it was dead even. This poll got the turnout numbers right but they could be way off here, if early voting indicators are correct.

Based on 2014 data, 39% identify as independents, 32% as Democrats and 23% as Republicans. This is the highest percentage of independents in more than 75 years of public opinion polling.
http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/



Sent from my Motorola Droid Turbo

 

[777]

No, the Pew one is of all adults, I am looking for a subset of that group - what is the party ID breakdown of people who are going to actually vote? Those numbers have to be spot-on in for a poll like this to be accurate. This one assumes a bigger D turnout than even in 2008.