Ex 12:48 says a foreigner has to become a Jew to celebrate Passover.
No, it does NOT. It sez "AS a native of the land." They still remain whatever race or nationality they were before. remember, there were Egyptians, Midianites (Kenites), Ethiopians, (One of Moses' wives was an Ethiopian, as per Numbers 12:1), and not all Israelis were/are Jews.
Ex. 12:48 And when a stranger dwells with you
and wants to keep the Passover to the Lord, let all his males be circumcised, and then let him come near and keep it; and he shall be as a native of the land. For no uncircumcised person shall eat it.
Numbers 9:14 must be understood in the light of Exodus 12:48. If an alien sojourns among among the Israelite wishes to take part in Passover, they may do so according to ordinances, which requires conversion.
No, that's not "conversion". Evidently, those people already worshipped God, or they wouldn't've wanted to observe passover. God merely required that all who would observe passover follow the same rules.
You said, "Israelis who national ID is known" Do you mean there are some Israeli citizens who don't know they're Israeli? I mean, don't all the Muslim citizens of Israel know they're Israelis? What did you mean?
The Jews consist only of the tribes of Judah, Benjamin, and Levi. The other tribes of israel are "out there", but right now, their national ID is known only to GOD. But God plainly said that Judah and the rest of Israel will be joined back as one nation again. Not happened yet, but it WILL.
All the prophecies about Judah and Israel apply to those literal, specific people. They do NOT apply to the Church. While any Israeli can become part of the Church, it's not automatic, just cuz they're Israelis.
"Replacement theology" is a false doctrine which dismisses quite a few prophecies from God Himself. When God says "Israel" or "Jacob" in prophecy, He is referring to all 12 tribes. When He says "Judah", He's referring to the Jews, who are only the tribes of Judah, Benjamin, & Levi. He separated Judah from the other tribes in the time of Rehoboam because of Solomon's sins, but He's gonna re-join ALL of Israel again. This is entirely-separate from His Church, which is made up of people from all nations & races.