• Welcome to Baptist Board, a friendly forum to discuss the Baptist Faith in a friendly surrounding.

    Your voice is missing! You will need to register to get access to all the features that our community has to offer.

    We hope to see you as a part of our community soon and God Bless!

Latest Market Drop

InTheLight

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Is the possibility that the House will swing to the Dems an influence on the stock market? Sure.
Is it the majority cause of the market sell-off? No.

If the market was concerned about the Dems reversing Trump's policies, explain why the market is rebounding today? Explain why it rebounded a couple of weeks ago after the other large dip?

Markets move on earnings, mostly. Interest rates are another reason. These are the two primary drivers in the latest gyrations
 
FollowTheWay

FollowTheWay

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
A

Alcott

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
FollowTheWay said:
No. It's the result of the failed Trump economy. This is just the beginning of the drop.
Click to expand...

I had seen my 401k and mutual fund IRA's go up unprecedented the past 2 years. Now they've lost $15,000 in 3 weeks with this speculation that the democraps are going to grab the House. "Failed economy?" Go back to the loony bin!
 
FollowTheWay

FollowTheWay

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Alcott said:
I had seen my 401k and mutual fund IRA's go up unprecedented the past 2 years. Now they've lost $15,000 in 3 weeks with this speculation that the democraps are going to grab the House. "Failed economy?" Go back to the loony bin!
Click to expand...
trump's economy is starting to kick in. It's only going to get worse. You know he ran the biggest deficit in 6 years for his first full year as president.
 
A

Alcott

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
FollowTheWay said:
trump's economy is starting to kick in. It's only going to get worse. You know he ran the biggest deficit in 6 years for his first full year as president.
Click to expand...

Tell us what the market is going to do the rest of this year. This will be something to refer back to, one way or another, when you hold yourself to be a prognosticator. Either you know what you're talking about or you're just a political hater.
 
FollowTheWay

FollowTheWay

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Alcott said:
Tell us what the market is going to do the rest of this year. This will be something to refer back to, one way or another, when you hold yourself to be a prognosticator. Either you know what you're talking about or you're just a political hater.
Click to expand...
It's clear the American stock market has been manipulated by the big banks and investment companies. It's not in line with historical norms in terms of P/E ratio or other measures. Under more normal conditions, I would project a sharp downturn into the close of this year followed by an extended bear market. What I haven't been able to figure out is the extent to which this market can be artificially held up the way it has been for a long time. My best guess is just like in 1929, the banks will hit a point at which they can no longer continue to hold up the market and it will go down significantly. The DOW went down about 28% in the '87 crash and the Nasdaq went don 50% after the Dot Com crash in 2000. I expect to see something similiar but worse.

Now, what's your projection for the rest of the year so we can compare them?
 
A

Alcott

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
I've mostly given up making predictions. Even if I do my statistical tests they don't seem bear out my conclusions any better than if I did the dart board thing. But you did state a prognostication to which I will refer back-- yes, even if it seems to be proving true.
 
HankD

HankD

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
So, If the House of Representatives remains stable for the midterms then that means the market will skyrocket like the 4th of July.
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
FollowTheWay said:
It's clear the American stock market has been manipulated by the big banks and investment companies. It's not in line with historical norms in terms of P/E ratio or other measures. Under more normal conditions, I would project a sharp downturn into the close of this year followed by an extended bear market. What I haven't been able to figure out is the extent to which this market can be artificially held up the way it has been for a long time. My best guess is just like in 1929, the banks will hit a point at which they can no longer continue to hold up the market and it will go down significantly. The DOW went down about 28% in the '87 crash and the Nasdaq went don 50% after the Dot Com crash in 2000. I expect to see something similiar but worse.

Now, what's your projection for the rest of the year so we can compare them?
Click to expand...

I want to make sure I'm understanding your prediction. You are saying the market will go down between 28% and 50%, or worse, before the end of the year?

Please tell us how the "banks are holding up the market"? I'd really like to learn more about this.

My prediction for the rest of the year? Continued volatility. Lots of sideways movements but by the end of December we will see the market closing at about 5% higher than it is now, which would put the Dow at around 25,800 or so, maybe get to 26,000.
 
Last edited:
FollowTheWay

FollowTheWay

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
InTheLight said:
I want to make sure I'm understanding your prediction. You are saying the market will go down between 28% and 50%, or worse, before the end of the year?

Please tell us how the "banks are holding up the market"? I'd really like to learn more about this.

My prediction for the rest of the year? Continued volatility. Lots of sideways movements but by the end of December we will see the market closing at about 5% higher than it is now, which would put the Dow at around 25,800 or so, maybe get to 26,000.
Click to expand...
Ok. We'll see who made the best prediction. Do you realize that the dow and SPX are down YTD?
 
Adonia

Adonia

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
FollowTheWay said:
Ok. We'll see who made the best prediction. Do you realize that the dow and SPX are down YTD?
Click to expand...

It goes up and it goes down, that sort of thing happens all the time. Do you realize that unemployment is at it's lowest point ever, plus our growth rate is like 4.2%.
 
Adonia

Adonia

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
FollowTheWay said:
trump's economy is starting to kick in. It's only going to get worse. You know he ran the biggest deficit in 6 years for his first full year as president.
Click to expand...

The deficit is a disappointment, but hardly any where near the deficit that was added under the 8 years of Obama. It went from like 11 trillion to over 20 trillion dollars during that time, which is more deficit than all the presidents before him combined.
 
Adonia

Adonia

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
FollowTheWay said:
No. It's the result of the failed Trump economy. This is just the beginning of the drop.
Click to expand...

Failed economy? There are more people with jobs than ever - and good paying jobs. I just saw a sign here in Dallas today offering $18.00 per hour for warehouse dock workers - not bad for starting pay.
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
FollowTheWay said:
Ok. We'll see who made the best prediction. Do you realize that the dow and SPX are down YTD?
Click to expand...

Of course I realize that. You realize the S&P500 was lower than it is now for most of April and the Dow has been lower than it is now for a couple of weeks in February, most of April, parts of June and July?

So you're sticking with your prediction that the Dow will be down 50% from where it is today by the end of the year? Just want to clarify.
 
InTheLight

InTheLight

Well-Known Member
Site Supporter
Adonia said:
The deficit is a disappointment, but hardly any where near the deficit that was added under the 8 years of Obama. It went from like 11 trillion to over 20 trillion dollars during that time, which is more deficit than all the presidents before him combined.
Click to expand...

I believe you mean to say national debt, not deficit, but I take your point.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top