Latest Market Drop

[InTheLight]

Hey I was just following your fallacious algorithm.

My "algorithm" is found in the 2nd post of this thread and says,

Markets move on earnings, mostly. Interest rates are another reason. These are the two primary drivers in the latest gyrations.

The political party that holds the majority in the House is way down the list of influence on the market.

 

[HankD]

My "algorithm" is found in the 2nd post of this thread and says,

Markets move on earnings, mostly. Interest rates are another reason. These are the two primary drivers in the latest gyrations.

The political party that holds the majority in the House is way down the list of influence on the market.

OK my bad for making you the owner but IMO you caused the faulty algorithm by your statement.

 

[InTheLight]

OK my bad for making you the owner but IMO you caused the faulty algorithm by your statement.

What is the faulty algorithm you are referring to? That the latest market drop was because investors fear the Democrats would take the House in the midterms? If so, that is "faulty algorithm" is totally on the writer of the article cited by the OP.

 

[HankD]

What is the faulty algorithm you are referring to? That the latest market drop was because investors fear the Democrats would take the House in the midterms? If so, that is "faulty algorithm" is totally on the writer of the article cited by the OP.

You just did it again.

 

[Adonia]

I believe you mean to say national debt, not deficit, but I take your point.

Well that too. The government is taking in record amounts of money but still cannot stop the deficit spending. This is pitiful and totally unacceptable on the part of Republicans who should not be following the Democrat way in fiscal matters.

 

[FollowTheWay]

The deficit is a disappointment, but hardly any where near the deficit that was added under the 8 years of Obama. It went from like 11 trillion to over 20 trillion dollars during that time, which is more deficit than all the presidents before him combined.

Obama inherited a near-depression from Bush in 2008. If he hadn't supported the banks the world would have gone down like in 1929. Trump inherited a much stronger economy from Obama but it's not what it seems. The years of artificially low interest rates and stimulation by the Fed makes it look better than it really is. The real question is not how many people have jobs buit how many people can live off their earnings. Most Americans are living paycheck to paycheck and with the banks kicking up interest rates on credit cards to 25-30% after one year at 0% many people are going to go bankrupt.

 

[FollowTheWay]

Of course I realize that. You realize the S&P500 was lower than it is now for most of April and the Dow has been lower than it is now for a couple of weeks in February, most of April, parts of June and July?

So you're sticking with your prediction that the Dow will be down 50% from where it is today by the end of the year? Just want to clarify.

I didn't say that. I'm sticking with my prediction that it will go down significantly (more than 10%). Are you saying the market will go up by 10% or more by year end/

 

[InTheLight]

I didn't say that. I'm sticking with my prediction that it will go down significantly (more than 10%). Are you saying the market will go up by 10% or more by year end/

My prediction? Same as it was a few posts upstream:
My prediction for the rest of the year? Continued volatility. Lots of sideways movements but by the end of December we will see the market closing at about 5% higher than it is now, which would put the Dow at around 25,800 or so, maybe get to 26,000.

 

[InTheLight]

Is the possibility that the House will swing to the Dems an influence on the stock market? Sure.
Is it the majority cause of the market sell-off? No.

If the market was concerned about the Dems reversing Trump's policies, explain why the market is rebounding today? Explain why it rebounded a couple of weeks ago after the other large dip?

Markets move on earnings, mostly. Interest rates are another reason. These are the two primary drivers in the latest gyrations

It's still early today, but here is the initial market reaction to the House being flipped to Democrats. Don't think it's having a negative effect on the market.

 

[HankD]

It's still early today, but here is the initial market reaction to the House being flipped to Democrats. Don't think it's having a negative effect on the market.


View attachment 2573

Maybe its related to the gain in the senate.

 

[InTheLight]

Maybe its related to the gain in the senate.

There was no change in the balance of power in the Senate. Besides, the OP is about how the market dropped in anticipation of the House flipping to the Dems. The House did flip but that didn't cause the market do drop (today, at least.)

 

[HankD]

There was no change in the balance of power in the Senate. Besides, the OP is about how the market dropped in anticipation of the House flipping to the Dems. The House did flip but that didn't cause the market do drop (today, at least.)

SO? No change in the balance of power except in the optics