Less Than 100 Days Until The Election

[saturneptune]

Sometime back, we had a thread of predicting who would win the election. We agreed to revisit the subject at 100 days, one month and one week before the election. What do you think the popular vote and electoral vote will be at this point? This has nothing to do with who you will vote for.

 

[saturneptune]

My prediction is Obama will win 51% and Romney 49% of the popular vote. The electoral vote will be Obama 301 and Romney 237. Obama will lose Indiana, Virginia and Florida that he carried in 2008.

 

[InTheLight]

Right now I've got Obama winning the electoral vote 270-268. This happens because of the Nebraska proportional split method of counting electoral votes. Otherwise I would have a 269-269 tie.

Like you, I have Romney picking up states that Obama had in 2008: Florida, Virginia, Indiana, Nevada, and Ohio, but I've got Obama picking up West Virginia, which he didn't have in 2008.

Popular vote? I'll guess Obama 62.5M to Romney 57.5M.

 

[InTheLight]

saturneptune, I think you need to vote in your own poll. Right now, at 100 days out, I'm the only one thinking Obama is going to win.

 

[Andy T.]

Romney will also pick up NC. No way Obama gets WV. Looks like Romney also may pick up CO. It really comes down to two states - OH and FL. I think FL will go for Romney, but OH will be very close, and I fear it might go for Obama. VA could be a deciding factor too. Those 3 states will decide it. Romney really needs all 3 of them to win, unless he pulls off a suprise and flips a WI or MI or the like, then he could maybe afford to lose one of OH/FL/VA.

 

[abcgrad94]

WV is ticked off at Obama because of coal, but I'm not so sure we'll all vote for Romney, either. That means people will either NOT vote at all, or they will vote for a 3rd party. Either way would mean O gets elected again.

I do not like those odds at all.

 

[Andy T.]

ABCgrad/Inthelight,

What polling data are you looking at that suggests WV has a chance for Obama? Last poll I see is from May and it has Romney up 54-37.

 

[InTheLight]

ABCgrad/Inthelight,

What polling data are you looking at that suggests WV has a chance for Obama? Last poll I see is from May and it has Romney up 54-37.

I hadn't looked at any polls. I know that WV has traditionally been a solid Democratic state. Maybe that is changing.

 

[Andy T.]

They've voted GOP the last 3 elections. It is a safe Romney state where he will likely get around 55%. It is still a traditional blue collar Dem state, but Obama is way too liberal for them.

 

[LadyEagle]

I hadn't looked at any polls. I know that WV has traditionally been a solid Democratic state. Maybe that is changing.

It is changing. At the primary, they voted for a prison inmate instead of Obama. They are really upset about Obama's war on the coal industry. And they elected a governor who is not a big fan of Obama, fellow Dem. The old Sen. Byrd days are long gone. WV is changing.

 

[LadyEagle]

SN, I voted obama in the poll. Not because I want him to win, but I am very disheartened at the Romney campaign right now because of the way it is being run. It is not being run as a winning campaign, IMHO. And I am thinking that unless he picks Rubio for a VP, he will lose, because most of the rest of people being discussed as possible picks, seem (while perhaps good solid conservatives) too bland. Just my opinion. Maybe things will pick up. We can hope.

I also think Ohio may go for obama, Florida for Romney. Ohio's improved economy is due to a Republican governor, but somehow that isn't making the connection, Ohio still leans very strongly Democratic. Maybe that will be changing, too, we can hope.

 

[mont974x4]

WV is ticked off at Obama because of coal, but I'm not so sure we'll all vote for Romney, either. That means people will either NOT vote at all, or they will vote for a 3rd party. Either way would mean O gets elected again.

I do not like those odds at all.

That's exactly what I see happening, and the reason I voted Obama wins in this poll. I don't like it, but I think he'll win. He'll win because people wanta real choice, and Romney is not a real choice. It's either Obama or Obama-lite in the views of many many people. So, they'll likely vote 3rd party....I know I will. I am tired of choosing the lesser of 2 evils and I am tired of playing the 2 party system game. So, several years ago I started voting my conscience and leaving the results, and the fallout, to God.

 

[mont974x4]

SN, I voted obama in the poll. Not because I want him to win, but I am very disheartened at the Romney campaign right now because of the way it is being run. It is not being run as a winning campaign, IMHO. And I am thinking that unless he picks Rubio for a VP, he will lose, because most of the rest of people being discussed as possible picks, seem (while perhaps good solid conservatives) too bland. Just my opinion. Maybe things will pick up. We can hope.

I also think Ohio may go for obama, Florida for Romney. Ohio's improved economy is due to a Republican governor, but somehow that isn't making the connection, Ohio still leans very strongly Democratic. Maybe that will be changing, too, we can hope.

what we need is a conservative who is also a fighter.

 

[InTheLight]

Romney needs to quit reacting to every attack ad that the Obama camp throws out there. Romney's campaign is playing defense and has been for a long time. It's a smart move by the Dems because real issues of jobs, deficit spending, and debt are not getting much airplay.

 

[Andy T.]

Ohio still leans very strongly Democratic.

Ohio is largely conservative/center-right, except for Cleveland and Toledo. If it weren't for those two cities, Ohio would always go GOP. One of the many reasons why I don't root for the Indians.

 

[Mexdeaf]

I expect Obama to win a squeaker.

 

[saturneptune]

I believe it will come down to the states of Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and maybe New Hampshire. Obama will not pick up any states McCain carried. Romney has a really good shot in Florida Virginia and NC could go either way. Obama is ahead in Ohio. Of course, the X factors in all of this is what happens with the economy, and in the news between now and election day. Also, the impact of the negative ads (especially from the Obama side) is unknown. Sometimes ads like the cancer ad that just came out backfire.

 

[just-want-peace]

I feel ~99% sure that the ZERO will be back in the WH come next Jan.

I sense that the prophesies of the end time are rapidly being fulfilled. This yokel will fit in perfectly to minimize the social/political/military/religious global influence of the US in preparation for the coming AC.

MARANATHA​

 

[OldRegular]

I feel ~99% sure that the ZERO will be back in the WH come next Jan.

I sense that the prophesies of the end time are rapidly being fulfilled. This yokel will fit in perfectly to minimize the social/political/military/religious global influence of the US in preparation for the coming AC.

MARANATHA​

I demand my Constitutional rights to vote as many times as I want!:laugh::thumbsup: I mean it. There is the ACLU!