Looks Like Trump Will Lose Solid GOP State of Utah

[InTheLight]

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[Salty]

and now for the rest of the Story
From Real Clear Politics:
Out of 6 polls, Trump leads in 4, McMullin leads one and the 6th one is a tie.

The RCP average:
Trump.......... 30.7
Mcmullin:......25.2
Clinton..........25.2
Johnson..........7.5
Stein................0.8

 

[InTheLight]

and now for the rest of the Story
From Real Clear Politics:
Out of 6 polls, Trump leads in 4, McMullin leads one and the 6th one is a tie.

The RCP average:
Trump.......... 30.7
Mcmullin:......25.2
Clinton..........25.2
Johnson..........7.5
Stein................0.8

The polls that Trump leads in are a week to two weeks old. Two weeks ago is ancient history in the final month leading up to the election, but they figure into the RCP average. The Emerson poll showing McMullin leading is the most recent.

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[Salty]

If you look at the link - the dates for all 6 polls overlap
The oldest one - from 10 Oct - is the one with the Tie.

and by Wed, your poll will be old news.

 

[777]

Yeah, I have problems with this McMuffin scenario. I think the voters of Utah would have to write him in, and they would have to decide to vote for him just because he is another Mormon. McMullin is on record for saying he wants to spoil the state for Hillary. Hillary voters in Utah should all vote for McMullin and just go ahead and ruin that state's reputation.

 

[Salty]

Actually, McMullin IS on the ballot in Utah

The theory is that if McMullin wins Utah and Johnson wins NM, hopefully the EC will be deadlock - and then the R's will strike a deal with McMullin to give him the POTUS .......

 

[InTheLight]

If you look at the link - the dates for all 6 polls overlap
The oldest one - from 10 Oct - is the one with the Tie.

and by Wed, your poll will be old news.

Yeah, by Wednesday his lead will increase.

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[Salty]

Yeah, by Wednesday his lead will increase.

Maybe
in that ONE poll - lets see what the RCP AVERAGE will be.

 

[InTheLight]

Maybe
in that ONE poll - lets see what the RCP AVERAGE will be.

Yeah, can't wait. Since RCP polls are the average of the last 5 or 6 most recent polls, as soon as the data from the CBS News/YouGov poll showing Trump up +17 drops off the average, McMullin will have a bigger lead. Just watch.



McMullin is also making inroads in Idaho and Wyoming. He could be the first 3rd party candidate since Wallace in 1968 to win a state's electoral college votes. Then all the people that pooh-pooh third party candidates will have to admit they could be viable if enough people would think outside the Rep/Dem box.

 

[Salty]

not the average of just one poll - but several different organizations which poll.

In 1968, Wallace received 45 Electoral votes

The three States you mentioned have a total of 11 EC - not quite the success that Wallace had.

 

[InTheLight]

not the average of just one poll - but several different organizations which poll.

Yes, that's what I said. Once that CBS News/YouGov is no longer a part of the averages, McMullin will be a clear leader, even in the RCP poll average.

 

[Salty]

Then CBS will come out with a new updated poll!!!

 

[InTheLight]

Then CBS will come out with a new updated poll!!!

So you believe this RCP poll is accurate that shows Trump is leading in Utah.

What about the ones in Arizona, where they show Trump losing? Is that rigged?

 

[Salty]

What about the ones in Arizona, where they show Trump losing? Is that rigged?

You want me to say yes - dont you?

Actually, I do have a good point to make - but you probably wouldn't consider it.

PS - it was in your link