KenH said:
If the government and the Federal Reserve hadn't stepped in last year, Tom, I wonder what would have happened.
The whole banking system? Again, we're talking about a dozen banks or so MAX. Out of almost four thousand. Granted, that's about 9 more than what happens in a given year, but still, to say that our entire banking system is almost dead ignores reality.
What saved IndyMac was not Bushama's 1st attempt at TARP (they were long gone). The FDIC did what they were
supposed to do. What is a better example of what could be done is what has happened in GA where a SuperRegional has absorbed two different failing bank systems on two different, seperate occasions. That's a more market-based solution, even if it was a shotgun marriage arranged by the Fed/FDIC. I think that would've happened more, and that's what might have caused the reaction. Would you want three or four SuperRegionals, max, in this country? Would you want one or two large insurers, max? Problem is, the former may be coming anyway,
thanks to Bushama's two TARP programs. Wells bought Wachovia with the capital infusion (they can deny it all they want, but industry types know better). Other better capitalized banks who had to take the TARP 1 money upped deposit rates and lured untold millions from smaller banks/credit unions now on the precipice.
You may be right in general. If a bank of any size or any footprint had gotten into serious trouble, or if some of the coal mine canaries hadn't gotten the clue, maybe we'd be worse off today. However, we caught a break as to timing. The plunge of oil markets, the holiday season, a changing perception because the attention of a nation was focused on a presidential race of historic proportions, all gave people something to think about other than Wall Street.
And I have gamed out a time or two what would have happened, given what we know now, if TARP 1 hadn't happened. I know one thing: just this last week, an announcement came down that a federal lending arm will be loosening some lending guidelines back to the mess that started this mess. We're back to the notion that "Come one, come all' to get a house, down payment or no, closing costs in had or no, at least in one lobe of Big Brother's mind. We have not learned. Let's hope the market has.