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More Winning--Stock Market Edition

InTheLight

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The S&P 500 index ended this week at 2,588.26, down from last week's closing level of 2,752.01. The weekly tumble, which marked the S&P 500's largest one-week percentage drop since January 2016, came as fears of a trade war escalated amid US President Donald Trump's Thursday signing of a memorandum threatening to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in addition to tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that just went into effect Friday.

Adding to investors' worries about a trade war, China's commerce ministry fired back Friday with a plan to set tariffs on $3 billion of US goods including pork and recycled aluminum.


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InTheLight

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Ironic that China is going to put tariffs on pork--I didn't think the budget bill Trump signed today was an exportable product!

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777

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Yep, it's both the tariffs and the big spending bill that's causing the DOW to drop. And don't forget the feds just raised the interest rate again:

Fed hikes rates and raises GDP forecast again

Very bearish on the DOW now personally - I don't buy the idea that we've been in a trade war for decades, takes at least two for a war, but we're in one now and one thing a trade war will do is cause uncertainty, and the DOW hates uncertainty.
 

InTheLight

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Wow-wee. 2.84% gain. Need about 4 of those in a row to get back to where we were before Trump started talking tariffs.

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Calminian

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Wow-wee. 2.84% gain. Need about 4 of those in a row to get back to where we were before Trump started talking tariffs.

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There's just no cheering you up.

But isn't it interesting this comes on the heels of tariffs.
 

kyredneck

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Ironic that China is going to put tariffs on pork--I didn't think the budget bill Trump signed today was an exportable product!

Trump’s Tariff Threats Beginning To Work

"...As with any action this president takes, the media told us that thanks to the tariffs the country was headed for a disaster of biblical proportions, you know Old Testament, real wrath of God type stuff– fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! rivers and seas boiling! Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes…The dead rising from the grave…human sacrifice, dogs, and cats living together, NY Jets winning the Super Bowl… mass hysteria.

While the above scenario almost happened in the movie “Ghostbusters” President Trump’s tariff threats are having a more positive effect. China is negotiating with the US on ways to remove some of the laws that are unfair to US business.

The negotiations are still ongoing but per the Wall Street Journal:

China and the U.S. have quietly started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, after a week filled with harsh words from both sides over Washington’s threat to use tariffs to address trade imbalances, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The talks, which cover wide areas including financial services and manufacturing, are being led by Liu He, China’s economic czar in Beijing, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. trade representative Robert Lighthizer in Washington.

Privately, Liu and Mnuchin exchanged letters in the past week on further opening China’s financial services sector and cutting Chinese tariffs on imported cars, according to the Financial Times.

China has a 25 percent tariff on U.S. cars and is now discussing lowering that tariff. China has offered to buy more semiconductors from the United States by diverting some purchases from South Korea and Taiwan, to help cut China’s trade surplus with the U.S., CNBC confirmed on Monday. And Chinese officials are also rushing to finalize new regulations by May that will allow foreign financial groups to take majority stakes in its securities firms.

Premier Li Keqiang said on Monday China and the United States should maintain negotiations and he reiterated pledges to ease access for American businesses, as China scrambles to avert a trade war.

Li told a conference that included global chief executives that China would treat foreign and domestic firms equally, would not force foreign firms to transfer technology and would strengthen intellectual property rights, repeating promises that have failed to placate Washington...."
 

InTheLight

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China and the U.S. have quietly started negotiating to improve U.S. access to Chinese markets, after a week filled with harsh words from both sides over Washington’s threat to use tariffs to address trade imbalances, people with knowledge of the matter said.

I sure hope this is legitimate news. I thought unattributed quotes, anonymous sources, etc. were fake news.

Anyway, it would appear that any stock market bounce that would be gained happened yesterday.

Another thing--leaders and businesspeople of other nations will quickly catch on to Trump's negotiating style, which appears to be talk tough and then back down. So far it seems to be working but at some point someone will call his bluff.
 

HankD

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Another thing--leaders and businesspeople of other nations will quickly catch on to Trump's negotiating style, which appears to be talk tough and then back down. So far it seems to be working but at some point someone will call his bluff.

Personally, I think it would be a dangerous thing to call Trump's bluff.
 

Calminian

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I...Another thing--leaders and businesspeople of other nations will quickly catch on to Trump's negotiating style, which appears to be talk tough and then back down. So far it seems to be working but at some point someone will call his bluff.

Trump could cure cancer and you'd accuse him of trying to bring down the oncology industry.
 

InTheLight

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Two biggest causes of investor failures in the stock market - fear and greed. Which are you right now? Afraid? Or greedy?

This is known as the false choice fallacy.

Let me give it a shot...

By the way--have you quit cheating on your taxes?
 

kyredneck

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This is known as the false choice fallacy.

Along the same lines:

"When you notice that someone is continually figuring in their checkbooks it usually means one of two things; they've either a whole bunch of money or very little".
 
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