My prediction for the election:

[LeBuick]

Part of my evidence is anecdotal I will be honest about that.

None of my women friends were committed to McCain before this. My wife and two daughters-in-law were not even going to bother voting. Now all three want absentee ballots. My women friends in the States were the same way. Now they are all McCain/Palin supporters.

You are correct, I don't know how big that demographic is overall, but for me it is HUGE . All of the demographic group "Christian American women and mothers who know Roger" have switched from 'uncommitted' to pro-McCain .

I think it was me that was wrong, I had assumed McCain had all the would be conservative women. I guess many were not going to vote at all which would have been good for Obama.

I forgot about something else, Biden is also Obama answer to the white, working class male block. I don't want to hear anymore how he is from Scranton.

 

[KenH]

If she shows good in the debates McCain is a shew in

Hardly. After the VP debate we will hear hardly anything about the VP candidates. People vote for president, not vice president.

 

[KenH]

(PA convinced me of that)

Senator Obama will win PA comfortably.

 

[LeBuick]

Senator Obama will win PA comfortably.

Ken, my main man Ken, my comrade in arms Ken, I sure hope you got this right... Now stay with me and don't change on this one... :laugh: :thumbs:

Sorry buddy, hope you take it in the humor it was given.

 

[KenH]

Now stay with me and don't change on this one... :laugh: :thumbs:

KenH ain't goin' nowhere. :thumbs:

 

[LeBuick]

KenH ain't goin' nowhere. :thumbs:

Now there's my trench buddy... :laugh: :thumbs:

 

[Salty]

McCain has just accepted the nomination. Any new thoughts?

 

[Crabtownboy]

McCain has just accepted the nomination. Any new thoughts?

I liked the honesty in his speech, the admission that Washington had changed the Republicians and not that they had changed Washington. I like his honesty about himself.

1. ther than that I found his speech not very inspiring. He gave no real details on how he is going to clean up the mess in Washington.

2. He is either quite misinformed on some of what Obama is saying, or else he simply told several falsehoods.

I believe he is getting tired ... and who would not. A primary campaign and an election campaign result in very demanding schedules.

I know someone will say "What falsehoods?" So here goes:

1.McCain says that Obama will raise taxes. However Douglas Holz-Eaken, McCain's own economic advisor, said that Obama's plan would be a tax cut for most Americans.

2. McCain said Obama's health plan was a "government run health care system," which it isn't. It isn't even mandatory.

3. McCain said that Obama opposed offshore drilling and nuclear power. Last week, with 40 million watching, Obama said that he was open to both.

 

[North Carolina Tentmaker]

This is going to be a close race. I still think a lot of conservatives will vote 3rd party. Despite Super Sarah the republicans have moved so far to the left they have left a lot of people behind. Still, in the close states conservatives will bite the bullet. I personally would have voted Bob Barr before Palin and I know a lot of other conservatives feel the same way.

The sad part is my state is really not in question. Despite this website’s prediction NC is firm Republican territory.

With our electoral system a lot of votes just don’t matter. California is horrible for Republicans. No matter what they do those 55 votes are going Democrat. You could say that same thing in reverse for Texas, but Texas is only 34 votes.

I would love to see every state go with Nebraska’s system of splitting the votes by congressional district. But the dems will never allow that as long as they hold majorities in California and New York.

It comes down to the same states as in 2004: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Obama needs 3 out of 4 to win, McCain needs 2.

I disagree with the website on several states. I think Ohio, North Dakota, and Colorado as well as Virginia will go McCain Palin. That of course will result in an electoral vote of 269 to 269. That would be something. Imagine if it comes down to Montana or Vermont or some other small state.

Of course with the split election if the Democrats win they will go about quickly destroying anyone who opposed them (“we will prosecute George Bush”). If the Republican’s win they will do the opposite and appease those who opposed them. So either way the liberal agenda marches forward.

Well I depressed myself this morning. Think I need more coffee.

 

[Agnus_Dei]

She has a 'handicapped' child whom she chose to give birth even though she could have killed him

In my wife's homeschool and moms group at our Church, we have a number of moms with special needs and Palins speech about her being their advocate in washington was a huge plus for McCain.

Also, if McCain as a former POW, would've mentioned that he would work with countires to bring our POWs and MIA's home; I tell you the roof would've caved in with cheers.

In XC
-

 

[EdSutton]

This is going to be a close race. I still think a lot of conservatives will vote 3rd party. Despite Super Sarah the republicans have moved so far to the left they have left a lot of people behind. Still, in the close states conservatives will bite the bullet. I personally would have voted Bob Barr before Palin and I know a lot of other conservatives feel the same way.

The sad part is my state is really not in question. Despite this website’s prediction NC is firm Republican territory.

With our electoral system a lot of votes just don’t matter. California is horrible for Republicans. No matter what they do those 55 votes are going Democrat. You could say that same thing in reverse for Texas, but Texas is only 34 votes.

I would love to see every state go with Nebraska’s system of splitting the votes by congressional district. But the dems will never allow that as long as they hold majorities in California and New York.

It comes down to the same states as in 2004: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan. Obama needs 3 out of 4 to win, McCain needs 2.

I disagree with the website on several states. I think Ohio, North Dakota, and Colorado as well as Virginia will go McCain Palin. That of course will result in an electoral vote of 269 to 269. That would be something. Imagine if it comes down to Montana or Vermont or some other small state.

Of course with the split election if the Democrats win they will go about quickly destroying anyone who opposed them (“we will prosecute George Bush”). If the Republican’s win they will do the opposite and appease those who opposed them. So either way the liberal agenda marches forward.

Well I depressed myself this morning. Think I need more coffee.

269-269 throws the election into the House of Representatives. Each state gets one vote, based on the collective minds of the Representatives of a State, I presume. DC does not get a vote, I do not believe, in this scenario.

My own prediction is that one of the Candidates will get more than 270 electoral votes.

Ed

 

[North Carolina Tentmaker]

I really appreciate you actually listing these. Of course I disagree with all 3, but thanks, I will address them.

I know someone will say "What falsehoods?" So here goes:

1.McCain says that Obama will raise taxes. However Douglas Holz-Eaken, McCain's own economic adviser, said that Obama's plan would be a tax cut for most Americans.

2. McCain said Obama's health plan was a "government run health care system," which it isn't. It isn't even mandatory.

3. McCain said that Obama opposed offshore drilling and nuclear power. Last week, with 40 million watching, Obama said that he was open to both.

1. A tax cut for most Americans, but not all. When we raise corporate taxes and taxes on the wealthy those taxes factor into all of us. On another thread yesterday someone was arguing that unemployment taxes are paid by the employee not the employee so they don't cost us anything. It is still part of the cost of employment and results in lower wages. Social security is no different. Only half of what you really pay ever shows up on your pay stub. But your employer is still paying that other half and it is still part of what they have to pay to employ you.

2. An increase in government control and power and a decrease in private market driven competition. It is still a bad plan. Why is it that the only segments of the medical field that are actually finding ways to cut costs are those not covered by insurance or Medicare (laser eye surgery, cosmetic, etc.)

3. But this is a flip for Obama who opposed it earlier. He has only backed off this position when he saw how many Americans want drilling and Pelosi has even told congressmen they could give lip support to drilling because she will never let it go up for a vote.

 

[Salty]

Bumping since some polls have bumped :laugh:

Any new thoughts, has any one changed their thoughts?

 

[JustChristian]

Here is my prediction for the election:
Popular ...................Electoral
McCain 49.8................353
Obama 45.2................185
Nader 2.3
Barr 1.1
Baldwin 0.4
other 1.2

Total 100.0...............538



Track the electoral vote:

This financial collapse will not help the party in power. I don't see any way your prediction can come about. People are fed up with the Republicans' focus on war to the exclusion of everything else.

 

[Petra-O IX]

This financial collapse will not help the party in power. I don't see any way your prediction can come about. People are fed up with the Republicans' focus on war to the exclusion of everything else.

Definitely going to be a hard one to overcome for McCain.This will now be the number one issue for all candidates to try to sell a solution on.

 

[North Carolina Tentmaker]

This financial collapse will not help the party in power. I don't see any way your prediction can come about. People are fed up with the Republicans' focus on war to the exclusion of everything else.

But which party is in power? How can anyone blame this on the president over the congress?

 

[LeBuick]

But which party is in power? How can anyone blame this on the president over the congress?

But the democrats have only had congress for 2 years. This problem dates back farther than that to include when McCain introduced his so called reform bill that would have avoided all this disaster. If he this bipartisan maverick he makes out to be, and this bill was as god for the people as he says it would have been, why couldn't he get his bill to pass with the republicans had congress at the time? Did he not push hard enough? Did he give in to politics as usual? Is this the guy that's going to reform how congress does business?

 

[Salty]

Here is my prediction for the election:
..........PREDICTION..........................ACTUAL
Popular ...........Electoral... POPULAR......ELEC
McCain 49.8...........353......45.7.............173
Obama 45.2...........185......52.9.............365
Nader 2.3..........................0.56
Barr 1.1............................0.40
Baldwin 0.4......................0.15
other 1.2..........................0.29

Total 100.0...............538



Track the electoral vote:

Note: I updated post one to include actual vote totals


and the rest of the "3rd" Party candidtates vote totals. CLICK HERE

 

[LeBuick]

Note: I updated post one to include actual vote totals


and the rest of the "3rd" Party candidtates vote totals. CLICK HERE

You predicted, almost, exactly backwards... :thumbsup:

 

[LeBuick]

As of 8/31/08 I predict:

Obama - 54%
McCain- 44%
Others - 2%

I don't have an electoral count at this point, but I expect Obama to win it quite comfortably.

I reserve the right to revise this based on what happens over the next two months.

Looks like you came pretty close...