NASCAR is back, part II

Top 10 picks.

1. Jimmie Johnson - I picked him after the Brickyard win and though he hasn't done much since then, I'll stay with him as champion.

2. Kevin Harvick - Harvick wins 3 Chase races to Johnson's 1, but has a couple of bad days to Johnson's 1. It will only serve to underscore what's wrong with the point system. Here's an article from David Poole about this.

http://www.thatsracin.com/mld/thatsracin/15470352.htm

If this proposal were adopted, I would be happy with that. However, I have a minor change I would make, which is that no points should be awarded to anybody who finishes 30th or worse, not 35th as Poole suggests. And, yes, I'm going to keep banging the drum about this, even if TPTB don't care what I think. :smilewinkgrin:

3. Matt Kenseth - I think Harvick and Johnson will be just a little better.

4. Kasey Kahne - After running their guts out to just get in the Chase, I wonder how much gas is in the tank for the Chase.

The rest of these are made using the flip-a-coin system. Believe it or not, that's a different system than I used to pick the Top 4, which was the dart-throwing system. :smilewinkgrin:

5. Dale Earnhardt Jr
6. Kyle Busch
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Mark Martin
9. Jeff Burton
10. Denny Hamlin

 

Is it too late to take my prediction back? What a performance by Harvick.

 

I have one driver in the position I picked him to finish! :tonofbricks: There is a ways to go, so I am not panicking yet.

On the other hand, two of my top three are Johnson and Kahne and they both dug a big hole for themself yesterday.

 

He sure looks good right now.

I am sure not disappointed in the 48 struggling out of the gate. But there is a lot of chase left to go.

 

One bad race has not eliminated drivers from contention in past Chases. So Johnson and Busch are not eliminated. And a win in the first race does not crown a champion. It doesn't even portend a trend. Remember who won the first race of the Chase last year? He was not heard from the rest of the year--nor this year!!!

BTW I predicted that Busch would do poorly in the Chase because he would make at least two mistakes. I think he wrecked twice on Sunday, but you can only do so badly in one race no matter how many times you crash. I feel confident that he is still good for another mistake in the next 9 races and that he will eliminate himself from contention completely.

Oh, that first Chase race winner last year was Ryan Newman, if memory serves me.

 

swaim, you are absolutely correct, one race does not settle things.

I have picked Harvick as the champ this year not because he won one race, but because it appears to me that everything is coming together for him and his team and they are peaking at just the right time. Johnson had it rolling early in the year, but it seems he has faded. I have seen nothing recently to change my mind on that fact. Perhaps Johnson will turn it around and win it, but I still think Harvick is going to be the man this year.

 

Yes, obviously you're correct, swaim. I was being somewhat facetious about changing my pick. 10 races is a lot of races and things can change very quickly.

 

The Weekend's Sleeper

The dominate driver at Dover in the early 90's (arguably) was Kyle Petty. Watch out for him this weekend! He's qualified well and he's in the top 15 in practice.

Go Kyle!!!

 

I would love to see Petty get in victory lane. However, I just don't see it happening.

 

swaim, I think you're thinking of Rockingham and not Dover. He was fairly ordinary at Dover in the 90s even though his last win came at Dover in 1995. However, at the Rock, he was usually the car to beat in the early 90s.

Here's a link to Kyle's Dover finishes.

Here's a link to his Rockingham finishes.

 

Hey ccrobinson, please don't ruin my fond memories with empty statistics! :smilewinkgrin:

There was another race in there, later than the '95 win, where Kyle dominated the day but lost to Mark Martin on gas mileage at the end. He was very dominant that day and Martin all but apologized for winning.

SBC, hope springs eternal! :flower:

 

After Dover

Dover observations:

One again I have one, count him, one driver in the position I predicted he would finish. This week its Hamlin.

Have Harvick and Burton been cheating with "trick" air pressure devices on their tires? Reports said that NASCAR did not penalize them but told them not to do it again. Yesterday they ran like they have been running, that is, up front. It would seem that they were not cheating or that what they were doing was not helping them much. I suspect that rumours of their cheating were false.

As for my prediction about Kyle Petty...:BangHead: Bobby LaBonte ran well though.

Who has been eliminated from the Chase? Busch almost certainly. Johnson and Kahne have the ability to go on a tear, win races and get back in contention. They would have to have perfection or close to it for the remainder of the season, however.

 

Both Nascar and RCR denied the SpeedTV report about supposed cheating. From what I understand, the reporter who broke the story didn't even talk to Nascar about it. I think the bigger story will be the disgruntled former RCR employee saying that they cheated at Daytona. What I don't understand is that the employee in question was an engine builder. So, isn't he saying that he himself is a cheater if he knowingly allowed trick cylinder heads to be bolted on the car? Maybe I'm missing something.

It would be a pretty tall order for Johnson, Kahne or Busch to get back into it. They all have to count on the top 5 in points having 2 bad days, not just 1. It could happen, but it's highly unlikely that it would happen.

I know I'm just :BangHead: by bringing this up again, but it only serves to underscore the problem with the points system. The points system penalizes a team for a bad day more than it rewards a team for a good day.

 

But all are under the same rules. Didn't BP win it all with just one win back in the 70's. Bill Elliot won I think around 10 races and didn't win it all one year, it all is staying in the top 10 or 15 every race or as many as one can.

DE don't have the wins that Bobby Allison, Cayle Yarborough or DW but he had mor top 10's in a season and that is how he won the 7, Petty won many more to get his 7.

 

BP won in '73. The championship format that preceded the Chase was begun in 1975. Prior to that, NASCAR used several formats to determine the championship.

 

Is Jeff Burton for real, and can he actually win the championship?

 

Burton has been a consistent runner this year which is what the chase requires. I think he is for real.

 

So who is done for now and who has a chance still?

 

Kahne and Busch are out for sure, but it's not because they're behind by 273 and 233, respectively. The problem they have is that they're 9th and 10th in ths points and have to pass so many other drivers to win the Cup. The late, great Alan Kulwicki was down by 278 points with 6 races to go in 1992 and he won the Cup. However, he was 4th in the points at the time, not 9th or 10th.

Johnson is thiiisss close to falling out. Again, not because 165 points is so many to make up, but because he has 7 drivers to pass.

Gordon, Earnhardt both still have a decent chance and Talladega is a good track for both. From what I gathered from yesterday, the 8 bunch thinks they have something for next week. We'll see. I think they need to be within 100 points of the points lead after Talladega or they're out. Same with Gordon although I'm not writing off the 4-time champion until he's officially out of it. He's earned that respect.

Though Kenseth and Harvick were not good yesterday, I think they're both still very much in the hunt. Obviously, Martin and Hamlin are definitely still in.

 

The top six are still in the running. The rest are out.