New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47

[Revmitchell]

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

 

[Revmitchell]

I believe this will be the final outcome.

 

[Revmitchell]

Monday, October 29, 2012

The race for Ohio’s Electoral College votes remains very close, but now Mitt Romney now has a two-point advantage.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Romney with 50% support to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...al_election/ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

 

[Zaac]

The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/new-poll-projects-romney-52-obama-47_658066.html

You mean you've been using partisan polls before that falsely get people's hopes up?

C'est dommage!!!

 

[Revmitchell]

Ever since the first debate Romney has been showing steady and sure momentum and it continues this week.

 

[Winman]

I believe this will be the final outcome.

I agree with these numbers. I like what I'm seeing!

 

[saturneptune]

You mean you've been using partisan polls before that falsely get people's hopes up?

C'est dommage!!!

Of course, what else would you expect from a poll posted by someone who would vote for a false god worshiper?

 

[saturneptune]

Ever since the first debate Romney has been showing steady and sure momentum and it continues this week.

Thank you for posting the correct numbers. I do think it will be a little closer than 52-47, but electoral college wise, Obama is going to get thrashed.

 

[Andy T.]

Thank you for posting the correct numbers. I do think it will be a little closer than 52-47, but electoral college wise, Obama is going to get thrashed.

Really? Thrashed? What makes you think that?

I think it will be very close in popular and electoral votes. In fact, I think it is a distinct possibility that Romney wins the popular (even by 2-3 points) but loses the electoral college. If that happens, the next 4 years would be very interesting with a President Obama getting beat in the popular vote having to work with a GOP House (for sure) and a tighter Senate (although probably Dem-controlled).

But the only way Obama gets "thrashed" in the EC is if Romney wins the popular vote in a landslide (like 55% or higher).

 

[Revmitchell]

But the only way Obama gets "thrashed" in the EC is if Romney wins the popular vote in a landslide (like 55% or higher).

Wait, what? Where do you get that from?

 

[Andy T.]

Wait, what? Where do you get that from?

Because in order to thrash Obama in the EC, Romney has to win all the swing states (even ones like WI, MI and NV), and statistically speaking, I don't think there's anyway he can win all those states (around 10 states) unless he does really well. I suppose he could win all of those states by close margins in each state (and thus, keeping his overall % down in the low 50's), but that would be a statistical anomaly.

 

[Revmitchell]

Well he has caught up in Wisconsin and Michigan. Not sure about Nevada but Colorado is another one he has caught up in. Ohio is a dead heat and he is leading in Florida. Oh also he has caught up in Pennsylvania as well.

 

[Andy T.]

Well he has caught up in Wisconsin and Michigan. Not sure about Nevada but Colorado is another one he has caught up in. Ohio is a dead heat and he is leading in Florida. Oh also he has caught up in Pennsylvania as well.

If Romney wins PA, then I go on the record to predict that he'll end up with at least 54-55% of the popular vote, which would be a landslide. And if he wins PA, he will win OH, and CO, and probably WI and IA, which would also result in an EC landslide.

In the end, I think for Romney to win the EC, his popular vote % needs to be at least 52% (again, statistically-speaking). If it is 51% or less, then there is a good chance that Obama will win the EC. I could see a result of 51-48 (and 1% for other candidates) and Obama still wins the EC by narrowly winning in states like OH, NV and WI.

 

[Andy T.]

Also, I didn't mention them, but I think Romney wins VA and FL no matter what. NH is another toss-up, but it has little effect in the EC with only 4 votes.

 

[saturneptune]

Really? Thrashed? What makes you think that?

I think it will be very close in popular and electoral votes. In fact, I think it is a distinct possibility that Romney wins the popular (even by 2-3 points) but loses the electoral college. If that happens, the next 4 years would be very interesting with a President Obama getting beat in the popular vote having to work with a GOP House (for sure) and a tighter Senate (although probably Dem-controlled).

But the only way Obama gets "thrashed" in the EC is if Romney wins the popular vote in a landslide (like 55% or higher).

What makes you think he will not? My reasoning is because Romney is going to carry Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, NC, and FL. I cannot understand your conclusion that Obama will win an electoral majority but lose the popular vote. What combination of states would do that?

 

[Andy T.]

What makes you think he will not? My reasoning is because Romney is going to carry Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, NC, and FL.

That's fine, but if he does carry those states (esp. MI and PA), then I think it is highly probable that Romney finishes with at least 54% of the popular vote, which would be an impressive victory. I hope you are right.

I cannot understand your conclusion that Obama will win an electoral majority but lose the popular vote. What combination of states would do that?

Here are the so-called toss-up/swing states: NC, FL, VA, CO, NH, NV, OH, WI, IA, MI, PA.

I think Romney will win NC, FL and VA by at least 3 points or more (NC he'll probably win by 5+). And I think he will win CO, but it will be close.

On the flip side, I think Obama wins PA, MI and NV.

That leaves OH, WI, IA and NH as the states I'm not that sure about - they are all really close. The Obama victory scenario plays out if he wins OH and WI, which is definitely possible, if not probable. If he wins those two, and even loses IA and NH, he still wins the EC with 271.

And all of this can happen with the current national polls ranging anywhere from Romney up by 1 to 4 points. I think it is likely Romney's popular vote margin falls somewhere in that range.

It will certainly make political history if that scenario plays out. It would be even more significant than Bush/Gore, because Gore only won the popular vote by less than a half percent - i.e., it was essentially a tie. But if we elect a president who loses the popular vote by 2 or 3 points, it will be a very interesting 4 years. As if our country isn't divided enough, this will just add more to the fodder.

 

[SolaSaint]

I do feel when people get behind the voting curtain and vote their conscience, that Romney will win BIG. My gut feeling...

 

[Andy T.]

The recent polls don't bode well for Romney. Rasmussen has it down to 48-48. It was 51-46 just a week ago. I fear our country will decide that government dependency is the way to go. So sad.

 

[Arbo]

I've been thinking for the last few months that this is shaping up to be the Reagan/Carter contest of 1980 all over again. There are many similarities.

 

[Andy T.]

I've been thinking for the last few months that this is shaping up to be the Reagan/Carter contest of 1980 all over again. There are many similarities.

Two big differences: (1) Obama is a much better politician than Carter. Carter inspired little confidence in people. Obama still has a way to whip people into a frenzy. And Obama is a better liar and manipulator. (2) Romney, although he is solid, is no Reagan. Although it could be argued (easily, in fact) that Romney is much more accomplished than Reagan was in 1980.

So the differences between the two candidates brings the race much closer. Other than that, I agree - there are quite a few similarities to 1980. However, the popular vote will be a virtual tie, and Obama will win the electoral college, barring a miracle.