New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47

[InTheLight]

That's fine, but if he does carry those states (esp. MI and PA), then I think it is highly probable that Romney finishes with at least 54% of the popular vote, which would be an impressive victory. I hope you are right.



Here are the so-called toss-up/swing states: NC, FL, VA, CO, NH, NV, OH, WI, IA, MI, PA.

I think Romney will win NC, FL and VA by at least 3 points or more (NC he'll probably win by 5+). And I think he will win CO, but it will be close.

On the flip side, I think Obama wins PA, MI and NV.

That leaves OH, WI, IA and NH as the states I'm not that sure about - they are all really close. The Obama victory scenario plays out if he wins OH and WI, which is definitely possible, if not probable. If he wins those two, and even loses IA and NH, he still wins the EC with 271.

And all of this can happen with the current national polls ranging anywhere from Romney up by 1 to 4 points. I think it is likely Romney's popular vote margin falls somewhere in that range.

It will certainly make political history if that scenario plays out. It would be even more significant than Bush/Gore, because Gore only won the popular vote by less than a half percent - i.e., it was essentially a tie. But if we elect a president who loses the popular vote by 2 or 3 points, it will be a very interesting 4 years. As if our country isn't divided enough, this will just add more to the fodder.

Excellent analysis and essentially where I'm at in the prediction game as of today. Ohio is the key.

 

[Andy T.]

A pertinent article on the polling madness:

http://kristensoltis.com/post/34833583238/unsolved-mysteries

 

[Revmitchell]

A pertinent article on the polling madness:

http://kristensoltis.com/post/34833583238/unsolved-mysteries

I have no idea what polls this person is speaking of but I have seen one which resemble anything this person is talking about. None.

 

[Arbo]

Two big differences: (1) Obama is a much better politician than Carter. Carter inspired little confidence in people. Obama still has a way to whip people into a frenzy. And Obama is a better liar and manipulator. (2) Romney, although he is solid, is no Reagan. Although it could be argued (easily, in fact) that Romney is much more accomplished than Reagan was in 1980.

So the differences between the two candidates brings the race much closer. Other than that, I agree - there are quite a few similarities to 1980. However, the popular vote will be a virtual tie, and Obama will win the electoral college, barring a miracle.

Both are good points. I think they have a bearing, but:

Point 1) It's indisputable that Obama has charisma, but after four years he also has a record. Whereas his charm got him into office, people are looking also at his arguably unstellar performance. It's a liability for him.

Point 2) In 1980, to the best of my recollection, there was not the continuous comparison between Reagan and a previous Republican/conservative hero that we have seen with Romney's run. Reagan was Reagan, just as Romney is himself.

 

[Andy T.]

Both are good points. I think they have a bearing, but:

Point 1) It's indisputable that Obama has charisma, but after four years he also has a record. Whereas his charm got him into office, people are looking also at his arguably unstellar performance. It's a liability for him.

But Carter's record was arguably worse. And I think you give a vast swath of the American public too much credit - most people don't vote on records or ideas, but on personalities, skin color, and what makes them feel good - and all that helps Obama way more than it helped Carter.

Point 2) In 1980, to the best of my recollection, there was not the continuous comparison between Reagan and a previous Republican/conservative hero that we have seen with Romney's run. Reagan was Reagan, just as Romney is himself.

True. Also, Romney's Mormonism I think has hurt him a little, but not as much as many expected.

 

[Arbo]

But Carter's record was arguably worse. And I think you give a vast swath of the American public too much credit - most people don't vote on records or ideas, but on personalities, skin color, and what makes them feel good - and all that helps Obama way more than it helped Carter.

I'll concede that the American voter is a shallow creature, but Carter didn't: a) have the boondoggle that is Obamacare and all that goes with it, and b) Carter wasn't socialistic in the way Obama is.

Though yes, Obama's a talker and that has some effect, I think people are starting to wake up to the consequences of the last four years and don't like the way another four looks under his leadership. At least I hope so.

 

[saturneptune]

If Romney wins PA, then I go on the record to predict that he'll end up with at least 54-55% of the popular vote, which would be a landslide. And if he wins PA, he will win OH, and CO, and probably WI and IA, which would also result in an EC landslide.

In the end, I think for Romney to win the EC, his popular vote % needs to be at least 52% (again, statistically-speaking). If it is 51% or less, then there is a good chance that Obama will win the EC. I could see a result of 51-48 (and 1% for other candidates) and Obama still wins the EC by narrowly winning in states like OH, NV and WI.

I think that is an excellent anaylsis of the states. In the past, more liberal types have been for switching to election of the President by popular vote, and more conservative types for the electoral college. One wonders if that thinking would change if the EC hands Obama a victory without the popular vote.

One thing most people do not realize (and I am for the EC), is that states have the right to choose their method of choosing the electors. Just because they are chosen now by popular vote does not mean that is the model in the Constitution. A state could as easily pass a law that the state legislature chooses the electors.

The same thing goes with how the electors are awarded. In most states, all the EC votes go to the winner of the popular vote within that state. Two states award by Congressional district. A state could for example, do what California proposed and rejected, all EC votes go to the national popular vote winner. In fact, there is a movement now when so many states approve it, that a similar pattern will be followed. It almost makes the present system obsolete.

The only state I might disagree with you about is VA. I think Obama could capture it. Romney has FL, NC, IN, and probably CO. My state is one of the reddest in the nation. Obama will be lucky to pull 30%. In the Democratic Primary, he defeated undecided 49% to 47%.