Obama's speech

[Alcott]

After the hot times of summer and the conventions, the movement seen in the final 2 months of the campaign are usually people 'returning' to the candidate they identify with, as well as slowly shaking off the anger or jealousy that 'their' candidate was not nominated. So my predicition is that if the Demo race goes all the way to the convention in June, there will be a lot of hard feelings and many claiming they will vote for a 3rd or independent cadidate, or not at all. In spite of that, opinion polls will indicate strong support for the Demo candidate to win the election... until the Republican convention, when it will turn in their favor for a few weeks. But in Sept. and Oct. the tendency to return will take place, many Demo-leaners will be 'over it' and enthused again, and the polls will indicate a close one. So then it will depend on who reallly had the most identification to begin with. Although it's far from a checkmate, I think that would be McCain.

 

[dragonfly]

After the hot times of summer and the conventions, the movement seen in the final 2 months of the campaign are usually people 'returning' to the candidate they identify with, as well as slowly shaking off the anger or jealousy that 'their' candidate was not nominated. So my predicition is that if the Demo race goes all the way to the convention in June, there will be a lot of hard feelings and many claiming they will vote for a 3rd or independent cadidate, or not at all. In spite of that, opinion polls will indicate strong support for the Demo candidate to win the election... until the Republican convention, when it will turn in their favor for a few weeks. But in Sept. and Oct. the tendency to return will take place, many Demo-leaners will be 'over it' and enthused again, and the polls will indicate a close one. So then it will depend on who reallly had the most identification to begin with. Although it's far from a checkmate, I think that would be McCain.

Good point. But, I think this election the democrat's are so concerned with not seeing another Bush or Bush look-a-like in the White House, they will unite behind whoever is the democratic nominee. Also, McCain's stance on the war will draw many independent voters to the democratic side of the aisle.

 

[steaver]

You shouldn't bet your rent money on that.

The 7.5 months between now and November 4 will have so many twists and turns, gains and losses of momentum, that it will make your head spin, steaver. This is the 12th one of these I have kept up with since 1964. About the time you think you know how it will turn out the plot takes a brand new turn.

God bless! :thumbs:

Trust me I won't! And I agree 100% with you here. I rest in the comfort of knowing God knows just who He will have to be President in the next season, FOR HIS PURPOSES, not ours.

God Bless! :thumbs:

 

[steaver]

Good point. But, I think this election the democrat's are so concerned with not seeing another Bush or Bush look-a-like in the White House, they will unite behind whoever is the democratic nominee. Also, McCain's stance on the war will draw many independent voters to the democratic side of the aisle.

Actually, McCains stance on the war and Obama's stance on the war (not pre-war but after it begun) was the same, "victory is a must", until Obama flip-floped (a democratic tradition) to get the far left zealots on his side.

Independants and swing voters will not go for Obama's cut and run plan for Iraq. And with this new revelation of Obama's racist fellowship the swing voters will abandon him, and are, like rats on a sinking ship.

God bless! :wavey:

 

[LeBuick]

Even with all of his speech giving talent Obama could not deliver a convincing speech to rid himself of this problem. It is growing worse each day.

What news have you been reading, I have seen nothing but positve reactions from his speach and the one on one session he did afterwards. If fact, it seems like some of the people who were torn between Clinton and Obama have moved his direction. She is going to have to show she has the same insite into America and it's problems or he will get the nomination.

 

[LeBuick]

Sorry, after more news reading I see I was wrong above...

 

[KenH]

the swing voters will abandon him, and are, like rats on a sinking ship.

If so, they'll be back by November 4.

 

[KenH]

Also, McCain's stance on the war will draw many independent voters to the democratic side of the aisle.

Also, the economy is liable to be in such a big mess by the fall that a Republican will have a hard getting elected dog catcher, much less president.

 

[J.Wayne]

It depends on which state a person lives in. Here is a link:

http://www.secretservice.gov/field_offices.shtml

Go ahead and report yourself, I've got better things to do. :laugh:

Actually, I don't think you would be much of a threat; people who constantly run off at the mouth are usually harmless.

So we are in the same boat then?

 

[Alcott]

A poll among registered Democrats in Pennsylvania: http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/keymar08_1.pdf

To the question, "If your preferred candidate does not win the Democratic nomination, who do you think you will vote for in November?"

Among Hillary Clinton supporters:
53% Barack Obama
19% John McCain
5% other
13% won't vote
10% don't know

Among Barack Obama supporters:
60% Hillary Clinton
20% John McCain
3% other
3% won't vote
14% don't know

Though this may not be nationally indicative, it can be seen as positive for McCain. While the Demos 'coming home' should still be a factor as the election gets closer, and those disgruntled that their candidate was not the nominee and many will eventually succomb to voting for the Demo candidate, you can't ignore 19 and 20 percent who say they will vote for McCain, even if half of those change their minds. This also indicates support for either Clinton or Obama may be currently wide, but 'shallow.'

 

[LeBuick]

Though this may not be nationally indicative, it can be seen as positive for McCain. While the Demos 'coming home' should still be a factor as the election gets closer, and those disgruntled that their candidate was not the nominee and many will eventually succomb to voting for the Demo candidate, you can't ignore 19 and 20 percent who say they will vote for McCain, even if half of those change their minds. This also indicates support for either Clinton or Obama may be currently wide, but 'shallow.'

Interesting... I wonder how many Republicans who didn't vote for McCain still won't vote for him and will either not vote or go with another candidate?

 

[dragonfly]

So we are in the same boat then?

What do you think?